Prof. Smith in FL: So far, 36% of the 907k Hispanics who have voted in 2016 didn’t vote in 2012
Flipped upside down, this means that NPAs who stayed home in 2012 are coming out a a much higher rate than the partisans.
None of this surprises me.
What is notable is that nearly 1/4 Republicans who have already cast their mail or in-person ballots in 2016 waited to vote on Election Day in 2012, whereas it’s only slightly more than 1/5 Dems and NPAs who voted on Election Day in 2012 who have already voted. That means there are more votes (raw and percentage) to be had by Clinton than Trump as the final GOTV push occurs on Tuesday.
I don’t feel like writing up the Race/Ethnicity & Age & Gender cannibalization rates right now, but suffice to say, they ain’t pretty for The Donald.
As a tease, I’ll leave you with this tidbit: So far, 36% of the 907k Hispanics who have voted in 2016 didn’t vote by any method in 2012. That’s a full 12 points higher than whites, and will likely be the key to who wins the presidency.
https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/
= new reply since forum marked as read
