*Updated* An educated election guess with a little precognition thrown in.
This election has had more ups and downs than a state fair rollercoaster put together by tweakers in the middle of the night and has been just as thrilling and terrifying. While it seemed to most observers just a few weeks ago that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential contest handily, as the race draws to a close there is much hand wringing about tightening polls and a silent majority supporting Donald Trump.
Here in the angry inflamed red state of Oklahoma, I have seen almost no visual signs of support for either candidate. Trump yard signs have outnumbered Hillary signs but by only a infinitesimal amount. Bumper stickers are nearly non-existent. I have seen only about a dozen Trump signs and maybe half that for Hillary. Normally, republican candidates signs blanket yards and medians and cover any open grassy area like spring wildflowers but not this year. And there are neighborhoods where liberals tend to congregate that are the safe haven (usually) for whichever democratic candidate is foolhardy enough to attempt to win an election here but only a few are brave enough to publicly support Hillary this year.
There is a reason most people don't affix democratic political stickers to their cars here; they run the risk of being victimized by crazed right wingers. Vandalism is a common occurrence, as is road rage directed at people (including myself) from people outraged at a bumper sticker supporting Obama or Hillary. It exists in a smaller extent to people with Trump signs in their yards as some who have been targeted by Trump's misogyny, racism, or bigotry tend to lash out and steal or trample these tangible examples of support for his message. I don't condone any acts of vandalism or violence by either side. I think people supporting Hillary Clinton are generally afraid to voice that support publicly, either by putting a bumper sticker on their car, a sign in their yard or answering a poll. I think the polls are probably skewed by 3% to 5% by this justified concern.
What I think will happen on November 8th is this. Trump will get about 43% of the vote nationwide, Hillary will win right at 51%. He will win all of the traditionally red states including most of the south except North Carolina and Virginia and will lose Arizona and Nevada to Hillar. Trump will win Utah. Hillary will lose swing states Ohio and Iowa but they won't matter because she will win Florida by more than 5% as she will decisively win the electoral college and the popular vote. Footnotes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein will win 4% and 2% of the popular vote and zero electoral votes respectively.
I think there will be right at 136 million voters, more voters than in 2012 (126 million) and the results will be:
Clinton/Kaine - 69,360,000
Trump/Pence - 58,480,000
Johnson/Weld - 5,440,000
Stein/Whoever - 2,720,000
The senate will end up a 50/50 split but Tim Kaine will cast the deciding vote so Dems will take control of the Senate.
Here is how I predict the electoral numbers will end up:
Hillary 329
Trump 203
There is a silent majority in this country but that group is not going to fall in line behind Trump, they are millions and millions of women, Hispanics, African Americans, Democrats, liberals, LGBT folks, millennials, Muslims, handicapped people (and their families), other decent human beings and yes, even moderate republicans, who care enough about this country to not let a despicable, deplorable man like Donald Trump every become president of our great country. They may be silent now, but their votes during early voting and on November 8th will speak loudly and clearly and say that America supports inclusion and tolerance, not hate and ignorance.
Pollsters and people will be surprised at the depth and breadth of support for Hillary Clinton on election night but I won't. I still believe that the majority of Americans support Democratic ideals over Republican ones and that the Republican party will not win another presidential contest for decades if they don't figure out a way to separate themselves from that basket of deplorables they have grown by sowing seeds of racism, misogyny, and intolerance for the last thirty years. Republicans are stuck with them and him.
I am with her.
Mortos
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= new reply since forum marked as read
And, I hope you're right.
Bookmarking to check the actual results against your own.
K&R