Rigged election: Hillary Clintons early-voting lead in Florida was mathematically insurmountable

[AmericanMan1958]

Last edited Sun Nov 20, 2016, 09:03 PM - Edit history (2)

So what the hell happened? That’s a good question. Despite the exit poll documentation showing just how many registered Republican Cuban-Americans were crossing over to vote for Hillary Clinton due to Donald Trump’s extreme anti-Hispanic policies, the official vote tallies in Hispanic dominated Miami-Dade County insist that Hillary only got around the same percentage of the vote in 2016 that Barack Obama got in 2012 despite the fact that his opponent Mitt Romney was not seen as being overtly racist. Trump’s impossible win in Florida was just one of numerous mathematical unlikelihoods and impossibilities around the nation that I’ve documented thus far.

http://www.palmerreport.com/opinion/rigged-election-hillary-clintons-early-voting-lead-florida-mathematically-insurmountable/114/

Being DU was down election night. I personally watch vote by precinct come in from Florida. Trump had a early lead, I wasn't to concerned because over 700 precincts still needed to report in the Miami-Dade (Hillary country) and surrounding counties. Trump had about 250 precincts in North west Florida that still needed to report.
Common sense told me that the number of precincts and the population differences heavily favored Hillary. Well as we know, it didn't. Trump's lead grew. His fewer rural precincts somehow had more votes than Hillary's heavily populated precincts, and her greater number of precincts still to report.
I personally watched it happen, even Steve Kornacki (MSNBC) was reporting he thought the gap would close and the question was could Trump hold on with his few rural Florida precincts. He got many more than Hillary was getting from heavily populated city region. His leaded grow even larger! The last I looked Hillary got more voted than Obama did in 2012 and Trump got around 500 thousand more than Romney 2012 numbers.
That is how and when I lost trust in these election results!!!

[Hoyt]

1. So, do you think Clinton, Obama Admin, other Democrats are in cahoots with whatever you

think deviously happened? I did say WTF, but after reflecting, I think a lot of people just liked Trump's white wing message and are that ignorant.

[stopbush]

2. When we consider how many eligible voters didn't bother voting

it isn't a stretch of the imagination to believe that those who did bother to show favored Trump.

[AmericanMan1958]

6. Florida didn't have a low turn out

Florida 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida
Florida 2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida,_2012
Florida 2012
Obama 4,237,756 4,163,447 Romney
Florida 2016
Hillary 4,485,745 4,605,515 Trump

[ucrdem]

10. It turns out that theory doesn't hold water.

It was based on election night reports of votes counted. Well, votes are still being counted, and the voter turnout as of Nov. 15 was 58.1% of eligible voters, per 538 and others:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012/

Why CNN, WaPo and others ran with that bogus theory is anyone's guess.

[uponit7771]

43. There was no low turnout in Fl

[AmericanMan1958]

3. I think we got played!!

Of all the scary shit that came out of Trump pie-hole was the election was rigged.
He always blame what he is or does on others, Deflection.
Well he started with the election is rigged, Bullshit!
I told many of my friend he deflects and is rigged talk scares me
Everyone came on glued, said "No, Never our election are honest and impossible to rig!"
Obama, Hillary, Media and talking heads sing out of the same hymn book.
Well makes it hard to say different now.

[cilla4progress]

5. If there is enough solid proof,

but in this post-truth era, that's a high bar.

We just can't be afraid of them. Even though they are armed. We have to remember there are more of us.

[Coyotl]

30. Statistics is like evolution, so not Republican.

It takes an educated mind to understand it. Don't expect people here to understand it either.

[byronius]

51. Oh, that pesky chart.

Just so rabble-rousing, that math. So unfair to our new owners.

[lostnfound]

98. Fractional vote math informed by detailed registration data?

I don't know the answers but itvpisses me off that it is even necessary to ask the question.

But I'm old enough to remember when exit polls matched vote counts.

[Hoyt]

9. Of course at the time he said that, GOPers were trying to figure out how to get rid of him.

I guess all of them were in on it. One might be able tof pull something in a precinct or two -- like the TV show Scandal -- but not country wide. And, unless the Obama Admin and Clinton are investigating it quietly, I think they would be raising hell.

The ignorant white wing racists came out of the closet for Trump, and a few other things lined up like Comey's BS. Some Dems didn't vote, either thinking we had won or as some ill-advised protest. It's really that simple, I think.

[ucrdem]

17. Looks like Mr T made a few deals.

That's what he's famous for remember? For example:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141621622

[AmericanMan1958]

45. I am more inclined to believe a hack!

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/07/russia-s-senior-most-officials-ordered-dnc-hack.html

"Officials also said they had detected Russian attempts to target state and local-level elections systems.

“We also worked as quickly as possible to release as much information as possible in order to provide state and local officials sufficient time to fortify their infrastructure,” the official said. The Department of Homeland Security and the FBI have put state elections officials on notice that hackers have been trying to access voter registration files and could cause havoc on Election Day. So far, 25 states have asked the department to help scan their computer networks for security weaknesses.
ADVERTISING

Notably, the statement didn’t blame the Russian government for targeting state elections systems, but it did say the activity had been traced to servers owned by a “Russian company.”

[lonestarnot]

46. And still are being played.

[dflprincess]

33. It could be one of those "for the good of the country" things

(which usually isn't really all that good for us)

like in 2000. If the Democrats had made a stink then, stood with the Black Caucus in the House, we might not be in this mess now.

[NCTraveler]

97. " stood with the Black Caucus in the House"

[pnwmom]

80. Florida uses electronic voting machines that can be easily hacked and leave no paper trail.

So they can't be audited after the fact.

This isn't Clinton or Obama's fault.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/millions-voters-could-cast-ballots-machines-leave-no-paper-trail

[Hoyt]

92. But if it happened, I would think Clinton, Obama and lots of Dem officials would be screaming.

To me, if Clinton had won, the GOPers would be screaming "rigged." I just don't want to sound like a GOPers screaming about conspiracies and stuff. If there were any evidence Clinton or Obama would be on it. Since they aren't, either there is no evidence (most likely) or they'd have to be in on the "hack." I can see "hackers" keeping quite about a precinct or two, but not widespread.

We lost, it hurts, let's not sound like a bunch of whiny GOPers playing their game of the past 12 years. At least I'm not going to.

[pnwmom]

93. They have no way to prove it happened. Princeton computer scientists showed how easy

it would be to hack these machines, without being detected. That's why we need machines that produce paper trails, so the vote can be audited.

Unfortunately, by screaming about a rigged election, Trump was able to trick Obama into defending the system and saying how good it was. But it isn't. Not in key counties in Florida and Pennsylvania (and in some red states, too.)

[Hoyt]

94. There were "lost" ballot boxes before. Losers are going to believe they were cheated.

I'm sorry, I don't want to grip about it, nor do I ever want to hear GOPers do the same. If it were as wide spread as it would have to be this election, there would be some proof, not a bunch of conjecture. I'd love for someone to turn up something legitimate, but until then . . . . . . .

[pnwmom]

99. It wouldn't have to be widespread. They would just have to hack the machines

in a few key Democratic districts in a few states . . . resulting in lower "turnout" for the Dems.

[LonePirate]

4. Trump maximized the rural vote to an extent which no one will ever do again.

Florida was no different in this regard.

What puzzles me is how he managed to perform so well in urban counties such as Duval and Pinellas. Both counties are home to a little under 1M people and he won them both. If Clinton had won those two counties by the average of her margin of victory in the counties she did win, she would have won Florida by several points instead of losing it by a little over 1 point.

[2naSalit]

39. That's the part that makes me really suspicious.

[uponit7771]

44. The POPULATION of the rural counties are still on decline but their vote went up on avg 3.5%...

... I don't believe that for a split second

[lonestarnot]

47. Not for a second!

[Coyotl]

52. Over 100% turnout in Wisconsin precincts is really impressive. How did they do it?

We are lucky to get 90% turnout in urban precincts.

[LonePirate]

53. I said it before but we need to count the number of signatures vs. the number of votes tallied.

Everybody provides a signature when voting. Count the number of signatures and compare it to the number of tallied votes and also the number of registered voters.

[Coyotl]

73. That's how we know more than 100% of the voters voted.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/20/1602092/-HRC-Campaign-Please-challenge-the-vote-in-4-States-as-the-data-says-you-won-NC-PA-WI-FL

[Lochloosa]

79. Duval is very red. I think it went for Bush at around 57%.

[LonePirate]

88. The issue/oddity is that it is a hugely populated, urban county that voted red.

After Tarrant County (Ft. Worth) in TX and Maricopa County (Phoenix) in AZ, Duval County might be the third largest county which the Racist-in-Chief won. Large (in population) counties were Clinton's backbone and this county (along with Pinellas) bucked that trend. Pinellas was blue in 2012 while Duval was still red. Granted, Clinton was closer to winning it than any Democrat in modern times, so maybe Duval will finally flip blue in 2020.

[Lochloosa]

95. I would not count on Duval flipping. I live here.

[LonePirate]

96. Well, she lost it by less than 7K votes. Obama lost it in 2012 by 15K votes.

That same rate of change flips it blue in 2020.

Granted, the dynamics will change in 2020 as I don't think Trump will run again; but I think our chances are at least 50-50 next time in flipping it.

[pnwmom]

83. Or the machines got hacked. And they are electronic machines with no paper trail,

so we'll never know.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/millions-voters-could-cast-ballots-machines-leave-no-paper-trail

[Equinox Moon]

7. Recount.

[pnwmom]

81. There is nothing to recount. Florida uses electronic machines with no paper trail. n/t

[jimlup]

8. I agree

but we have to do more than just cry about it. I hope that some smart academics are looking for the anomalies that would surface in a vote hacking event. I personally am not convinced that the election was not hacked. This sounds absurd. I wish I could have confidence in the United States voting system. I would have more confidence in it if there were a verifiable paper trail.

[AmericanMan1958]

13. I agree

I ain't crying, but I hate cheaters and now they got me pissed.

[lastlib]

27. I am beginning to think something shady was done......

I'd like to see the DOJ audit the machines that were used in these battleground states. I thought it took a lot to rig an election in this country, but I'm now wondering if it takes as much as we think.

[jimlup]

31. I can think of one player who might have the capability to do it...

Don't want to imagine it is true but it does occur to me as possible. Again I hope some smart people are looking hard at this.

[AmericanMan1958]

11. I just know what I seen with my own eyes.

Just can't figure out how rural precincts out voted city precincts where Hillary was getting 63-65% of the votes.
Watched results come in for many elections, this was a new one for me.

[greytdemocrat]

12. Man

For the life of me I don't know why
people put so much faith in exit polls.

As I've said before, people lie or won't tell
a stranger taking a poll who they really voted for.

[bullimiami]

14. You honestly think people voted Trump, walked outside, and told someone they voted Hillary?

It strains sanity.

Trump voters were loud and proud, they were all along.

[C Moon]

20. plus1000

[greytdemocrat]

38. Yes I do.

I don't trust general polls period. I think Hillary's people
fell into a self fulfilling trap that they were doing
great and had it in the bag.

I bet some late private polls started to show
they were in trouble and someone started to
wake up to the fact it wasn't going to be a cake walk.

No doubt why the fireworks were canceled.

[Pacifist Patriot]

76. Keep in mind that interviews for exit polls are the exception.

It's more common voters are given a confidential questionnaire to complete. That removes the incentive to lie anyway.

[AmericanMan1958]

15. What I was watching had nothing to do with exit polls

I am talking about watching actual vote count returns.
I am not saying Hillary could have over come 100,000 vote lead by Trump.
But with the precincts that still need to report, the gap should have gotten closer.
Not grow!!
That is all I am saying.

[AmBlue]

36. I agree.

I live in Florida, I watched it too, and it makes absolutely no sense.

This election needs to be audited. And NOW.

#AuditTheVote

[Grey Lemercier]

40. I watched it live too, and the last parts to report were a bit in SE (Broward, Dade) but also

a shitload from the Panhandle, which overwhelming went Trump.

[Pacifist Patriot]

75. I was doing the exact same thing that night and completely agree with you.

[Pacifist Patriot]

74. Well for one thing, that isn't how exit polls work.

You're not standing there talking to a stranger holding a clipboard writing down your responses. When participating in an exit poll, you are handed a form to fill out that is anonymous and you drop it in a box with all the other anonymous forms. That huge incentive to lie, just isn't there. Sure someone can decide to put different answers down to screw with results, but those people are factored in margins of error. When its anonymous, most people will tell the truth.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

77. The exit poll being quoted in the OP is not anonymous

It's done via on-line opt-in and telephone surveys, and is matched against voter lists.

Here's a link to the actual news release of the poll:

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters

Even if the poll had been accurate, which I highly doubt, Palmer's analysis is flawed, in that it's impossible to predict what 3 million people will do based on what 3.6 million already did.

[Pacifist Patriot]

78. I appreciate the clarification.

I've not looked at Palmer's analysis, but the methodology of that particular exit poll is troubling. It introduces biases that confidential surveys immediately after voting eliminate. For that reason I would not put much stock in this particular poll. Sounds poorly executed to me.

I'm reluctant to jump on the bandwagon of anyone's analysis at this point in time. There is still more data coming in. Unfortunately, it can take weeks and months for a truly meaningful election analysis to occur.

[BainsBane]

16. Those early vote estimates are based on party iD though

They don't account for significant numbers of Democrats voting for Trump, which does seem to have happened.

[jodymarie aimee]

18. they flipped the voting machines???

There are rumors the Rs cheated and flipped the votes from D to R. Here in WI, FL, PA and NC. Earlier this year they said Walker did this in all 3 of his wins. I put nothing past those crooks.

[sunnystarr]

23. That's what they did in Florida in 2004. nt

[Botany]

19. PA, MI, NC, and now FL?

All have stories about weird #s.

[ucrdem]

21. "Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout"

CNN, Updated Mon November 7, 2016 (election day eve):

So far, Latino voting in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina is significantly up from 2012. . . .In total, more than 30 million votes have been cast already across 38 states with early voting.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/latinos-voter-turnout-early-voting-2016-election/

Have those votes even been counted? If they weren't cast on election day, they might not have shown up in the election night figures, thus allowing CNN and WaPo to claim that voter turnout had slipped below 2012 numbers. In CA for example early votes are mailed in and counted well after election night; in fact they're still being counted here. If they weren't counted in battleground states that were close, like Florida, they shouldn't have been called for Trump.

[Cryptoad]

22. Ole Joe Stalin said,,,,

its not important who votes. Its only important who counts the votes!

[Coyotl]

32. Today, it isn't who votes, it is whose machine counts the vote with secret, corporate code.

[AnotherMother4Peace]

24. my republican father passed away early this year in Florida - did his vote

get stolen? Trump is always accusing others of what he is guilty. I'd like to find out if his vote was stolen.

[mtnsnake]

25. I wish DU was up and running for everyone so more people would be aware of such important matters

as this. Has anyone said when the forum will be available to the outside world again?

[geek tragedy]

26. Republicans had huge turnout on Election Day nt

[Coyotl]

34. Indeed, only about 2 million less than the Dems according to vote count reports.

[hueymahl]

28. Extraordinary claims require Extraordinary Evidence

Until they come up with something more than conspiracy theories, this is just so much mental masturbation.

We need to focus on stopping trump's agenda and figuring out what we did right and what we did wrong for the next election.

[cilla4progress]

49. We do this first and

We do that also

[tinrobot]

29. When one side is screaming that the vote is rigged...

...it takes away that claim for the other side. It is a classic technique that people like Karl Rove have used a lot.

...add to that the hack of DU and I'm seeing a lot of red flags.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

35. My friend in Denmark says everyone he knows thinks the election was rigged.

[Snarkoleptic]

37. "So what the hell happened?"

Russian hackers surgically manipulated the results, making Karl Rove and his merry band of miscreants look like rank amateurs.
Add to that Kris Kobach's "Interstate cross-check", supercharged voter ID laws, 868 closed polling places, voter intimidation, etc.

[Grey Lemercier]

41. "Russian hackers surgically manipulated the results" problem w/ that, machines not hooked to the net

Only way the machines could have been hacked is via the actual software or hardware being pre-rigged by hand

[JimBeard]

101. How do the final results get from the counties to the state capitols for state wide

tabulation?

[Grey Lemercier]

102. the people who send the info in from the districts would

see if what they sent was added in incorrectly. Whether they called the totals in or sent via email, you cant change it midstream.

The Russian did not directly hack vote totals.

[kebob]

42. Election Tampering? In FLORIDA?

No way!

[Coyotl]

48. HRC Campaign - Please challenge the vote in 4 States as the data says you won - NC, PA, WI, FL

HRC Campaign - Please challenge the vote in 4 States as the data says you won - NC, PA, WI, FL

At least 5 reports and detailed stories now say HRC might have/did win and are calling for her to contest the States where the data says she most likely won. Most of the people working on these stories have 10 to 20 years analysing elections. I would take what they have to say very seriously for the good of the country and the HRC voters.

What Can You Do Today? .............

[Grey Lemercier]

50. Bill Palmer (Daily News Bin) makes some large errors in his post

Here’s what we know about Florida for sure: of the 9.1 million people who voted in the state, roughly seventy percent of them – or 6.6 million people – voted early.

He understates the total final vote by almost 300 thousand (9,386,750 actually voted http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/florida)

The same day voting was dominated (as normal) by Republicans.


http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/florida-early-voting-results-turnout-2016-election-final-end-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-democratic-republican/

The Democrats hold a lead going into Election Day, but their lead is significantly smaller than it was four years ago. In 2012, Democrats scored 43 percent of the early vote in Florida, and Republicans scored 40 percent. In the end, Barack Obama won Florida, but it was a tight race, with the president defeating Mitt Romney by a margin of just 0.88 percentage points. Democratic turnout tends to be high in early voting, and Republican turnout tends to be high on Election Day. So the fact that the Democrats don’t have as large a lead as they did four years ago may spell trouble for Hillary Clinton.

This year, about 1.2 million of the ballots cast came from those not affiliated with any of the two major parties. This translates into 19.2 percent of the early vote. It’s unclear who these voters selected, but many polls have suggested that they tend to gravitate towards Donald Trump. In a recent CBS News poll, independent voters favored Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, 47 percent to 34 percent, and another Remington Research survey showed Trump winning among unaffiliated voters 49 percent to 36 percent.

Although the number of votes cast by Democrats is down, good news for Hillary Clinton is the fact that Hispanic turnout in Florida is up this year. According to The Wall Street Journal, about twice as many Florida Hispanics have voted early compared to 2012. However, African American turnout was down 11 percent this year, according to McClatchy DC.

snip

He also (in his 2 scenarios) gives Hillary 28% of Republican early voter (ludicrous, and based off ONE poll of 311 early voters) and then 15% (based off a Mike Murphy comment. Palmer also splits the independent voters 50/50, when almost every poll showed Trump absolutely dominating Clinton amongst FL indies by double digits.

A total of 2,638,020 early votes were cast by registered Democrats, and 2,533,629 votes were cast by registered Republicans. 1,284,597 early votes were cast by independents, 159,323 by 3rd parties. This translates into 39.9 percent of the vote going to the Democrats, and 38.4 percent of it going to the Republicans. The remainder were independents (19.3%) and 3rd party voters (2.4%).

The key errors the author makes is by way overstating the amount he gives in terms of Republicans defecting to Clinton, and also the amount of breakage for independents. I am almost sure he tilts BOTH by over 10% ( 23% if you use the 28% defection sample from the faulty 311 person survey) in favour of Clinton. That destroys his entire thesis.


Palmer is no stranger to shoddy journalism. Here is an article from his website that is entirely based off of a completely fabricated premiss.

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/merrick-garlands-backdoor-appointment-to-the-supreme-court-could-be-president-obamas-parting-gift/26639/

Notice this key part

The Supreme Court, according to the Constitution, requires nine Justices. Upon Justice Scalia’s death on February 20, 1016, the Republican led Senate made a statement that they would refuse to “advise and consent” any nominee that President Obama put forth.

No, the US Constitution does NOT specify 9 SCOTUS justices, in fact it doesn't require ANY specific number.

https://www.supremecourt.gov/faq.aspx#faqgi6

Who decides how many Justices are on the Court? Have there always been nine?

The Constitution places the power to determine the number of Justices in the hands of Congress. The first Judiciary Act, passed in 1789, set the number of Justices at six, one Chief Justice and five Associates. Over the years Congress has passed various acts to change this number, fluctuating from a low of five to a high of ten. The Judiciary Act of 1869 fixed the number of Justices at nine and no subsequent change to the number of Justices has occurred.


I am ENTIRELY open to the idea of actual vote tampering by the Rethug fuckers, but sloppy articles like this are click bait and do our side no good.

here are some polls that show indies break large for Trump and a much closer number of defections:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mwbtap4dgs/FL_Prelim_20161106.pdf



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Florida_October_31_2016.pdf



this one doesnt show a double digit indie lead for Trump, BUT it shows more Dems voting for Trump than Rethugs for Hillary

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2401





Finally btw, IPSOS/Reuters showed Trump winning PA, NC, MI with WI and FL tied, so along with PPD, Trafalgar, Remington, and a few others, they were really close.

Election eve, they (Reuters) put up a turnout model (the rethugs NAILED turnout, and thus knew where to go and campaign) that gave Trump a 75% chance of winning, but I was terrified to post that on here, and terrified when I saw it.

http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/

[SickOfTheOnePct]

54. Another glaring flaw in Palmer's analysis

If one assumes that the 28% Republican defection to Clinton is correct, which is unlikely, that percentage would ONLY apply to those who had already voted, which was ~3.6 million when the poll was taken. Palmer is taking the result of what 3.6 million did and assuming that the 3 million who followed did the exact same thing. It's ludicrous.

[Grey Lemercier]

55. good point

I hate when these faulty articles lead us down primrose paths.

Do you know when Florida will post the breakdowns by party of the votes?

[SickOfTheOnePct]

56. I know that the vote is scheduled to be certified tomorrow

But they won't be able to break down the actual votes by party.

Per the exit polls on election day, 8% of Dems voted Trump, 8% of Republicans voted Clinton, and independents were 47%-43% for Trump.

[Grey Lemercier]

57. they have always eventually released the registered party breakdowns (in terms of who they voted for

in the past.

For instance in 2000, 308,000 FL DEMOCRATS voted for Bush.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/dont_fall_for_it_the_nader_myth_and_your_2016_vote_20160802

[SickOfTheOnePct]

58. I'm pretty sure that's based on exit polling

There is no way to tie a specific vote to a specific person, which would be necessary in order to give an actual breakdown of the votes by party.

[ucrdem]

59. Special pleading.

The fact is that early voting and election-day voting apparently show completely different breakdowns, with a result just close enough for Trump to win a needed battleground state. Furthermore the same scenario was repeated in three other battleground states. So you'd have to provide a more substantial analysis than simply stating that "same day voting was dominated (as normal) by Republicans."

[SickOfTheOnePct]

60. There was no polling

that could be used for the entire population of early voters in Florida.

You can't take what 3.6 million people did and assume that the next 3 million are going to do the same thing.

[ucrdem]

61. "Florida survey: 28% of GOP early voters picking Clinton"

A new TargetSmart/William & Mary survey finds that more than a quarter of early Republican voters in Florida are voting for Hillary Clinton. MSNBC's Brian Williams discusses with his panel.

http://www.msnbc.com/brian-williams/watch/florida-survey-28-of-gop-early-voters-picking-clinton-798821443850

[SickOfTheOnePct]

63. As I said

you can't take the poll you're quoting, based on 3.6 million early voters, and then say that the percentage, in this case 28%, is going to hold out for the next 3 million voters.

That's a glaring error in Palmer's analysis.

[Grey Lemercier]

64. that poll is bunk (and based off a 311 person sample, and the only one that showed this

But by all means, keep thinking that occurred.

[ucrdem]

103. There's nothing wrong with the poll. You're trying to make the facts fit your preconceptions.

They don't. Welcome to America.

[Grey Lemercier]

104. if you honestly think almost 30% of registered Rethugs voted for

Last edited Tue Nov 22, 2016, 03:43 AM - Edit history (1)

Clinton I have a bridge to sell you in London or Brooklyn. Take your pick

[Grey Lemercier]

62. when I get that data (the real data, not exit polls) I will put it up

My main point is that the author very likely uses faulty math and faulty assumptions/extrapolations in regards to the early voting as well.

This includes a crazy 24% net gain in inter party swing, in Hillary's favour for the early votes. Even his alternative is an 11% net gain, but the 24% is what he leads with (for max shock effect) His splitting indies 50/50 is also extremely suspect. All 3 are highly dubious, as his extrapolation of that trend extending to election day voting.

I hope Florida puts up the actual data soon.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

65. How are you going to get actual data

when there is no way to tie a vote to a person?

[Grey Lemercier]

66. not to specific person, but Florida will release a breakdown by registered party

[SickOfTheOnePct]

67. That will only tell how many in each party voted

it won't tell for whom they voted.

[Grey Lemercier]

68. I have seen states issue breakdowns of percentage of votes each candidate got from each party

[SickOfTheOnePct]

69. OK, no way of doing that I know of

I've voted in four different states during my lifetime, and my ballot has never designated that I'm a Democrat, other than for closed primaries, obviously.

Unless the ballot shows to which party you belong, there is no way to know the actual vote count broken down by the party the voter belongs to.

[Grey Lemercier]

70. well, then, I guess we will never really know, but absolutely I can say that the 28% Rep

voting for Hillary was so so off, it was a staggering outlier to every other poll, and was based off 311 voters. One cannot erect an entire premiss off that one poll.

I do think that Florida will breakdown election day versus early voting data. That would appear to be easy to do, as you do not have to know anything about the voter, just when the vote was cast.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

71. Agree 100% on all counts

Something else that people need to realize is that initial exit polls, including what's leaked out during the day of the election, are pretty meaningless. All of the upset over "The initial polls don't match the final results", well yeah, they usually won't, because there are too many unknowns during the day, which is why the polls are adjusted as actual votes begin to be counted.

[Grey Lemercier]

72. I just want to catch the fuckers cheating for REAL, please please one of these times

By cheating I mean honest to fuckall black box e-vote disappearing , changing, switching, etc.

They cheat in plain site with Crosscheck purges, media shit, hacking in coordination with Russia, Wikileaks, etc, and don't get me started on Comey. I know Clinton was hated by millions, but, ffs, so much of that was just residual bullshit from 30 years of smears.

Every day I think I am going to feel better about this, and every day I get madder, as I see what is looming ahead in the new nazi government.

[pnwmom]

82. Florida uses electronic voting machines with no paper trail. So good luck on the "real data." n/t

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/millions-voters-could-cast-ballots-machines-leave-no-paper-trail

[Grey Lemercier]

84. yes, I have been digging into past election data, and it was gleaned from paper ballots

Hopefully they still do release election day only data.

what a clusterfuck

[pnwmom]

87. Look at the map in the article. The counties in green -- including heavily Dem counties in Florida -

use the electronic machines with no paper trail.

[Grey Lemercier]

90. I hate to say this, but (regardless of my issues with thsi article) I am really starting to wonder

if the USA will EVER have a non Repuglican-rigged election (suppression AND theft/rigged/hacked) again.

I am having serious doubts. I mean, how the fuck can we ever really know? They control such a HUGE amount of statewide offices, governorships, and legislatures, and states are where the dirty dirty goes on, all the way down to some little shit cracker town in Alabama or some other shitkicker bollocksed up bastion of the confederacy. Hell they can do it anywhere apparently.

I have never felt so powerless in my short life. I am in the process of getting immolated by Brexit (I have already lost 4 of my best people, from my creative firm, who went back to their home EU countries due to uncertainty here in London) and now my other home country, the US is apparently going back to a combo of 1920, 1850, and 1675.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

85. Parts of Florida use this type of voting machine

And other parts use paper.

[pnwmom]

86. Look at the map. The largest Democratic counties -- Palm Beach, Broward, etc -- now use the machines

with no paper trail.

So does Philadelphia County, by the way.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

89. I saw the map

And yes those are heavily Democratic counties with Democratic majorities and more than likely Democratic county leadership.

So why haven't they changed their voting method? It's up to the counties, after all.

[suston96]

91. Indeed......

Th vote-counters were in control.

For one thing, Trump body language just prior to election day showed me that he knew the election was rigged in his favor and that he would win.

The vote counters were in control.

[VOX]

100. The whole damned election reeks of tampering...

All those micro-percentages, in just the right precincts/counties, just a little padding here, a little patchwork there, with some Kremlin input for seasoning...

These are true, stuff-arm-saluting fascists. "Doing right" in their eyes means laws will be disregarded.