Move two state borders and Hillary Clinton wins

[Skinner]

I'm not trying to make excuses by posting this. But it does provide some interesting context. Exact same votes, totally different post-election narrative...

Here's a fun little thought experiment demonstrating the fundamental arbitrariness of the electoral college: Had two state borders been drawn just a little bit differently, shifting a total of four counties from one state to another, Hillary Clinton would have won the election.

Take a look at the imaginary map above, which comes from an nifty online tool called Redraw the States. It was created by Kevin Hayes Wilson, a mathematician and data scientist working in computer science education.

This map moves Lake County, Ill. to Wisconsin, turning that state blue. It moves Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties from the Florida panhandle to neighboring Alabama. That's enough to turn Florida blue. With victories in Wisconsin and Florida, Clinton squeaks to victory in the electoral college, 270 to 268.

Exact same votes, slightly different borders, radically different outcome: the capriciousness of the electoral college laid bare

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/29/how-the-electoral-college-gerrymanders-the-presidential-vote/

[greymattermom]

1. There should be at least one blue county

in Atlanta. Maybe Tennessee should acquire some of North Georgia.

[guillaumeb]

2. Alternative history can make for interesting reading, but

in these United States, in this reality, President Trump will be inaugurated in January.

[underpants]

3. Fascinating

[Buckeye_Democrat]

4. Excellent display of the ridiculousness of it all! n/t

[mtnsnake]

5. Very cool but some of the borders could probably be jockied similarly to favor bloated orange

I think this experiment is a good indicator of why the reasoning behind the electoral college, in the manner in which it was set up over 200 years ago, doesn't apply to the country the way things are nowadays, considering the massive changes that have taken place population wise over the last two centuries.

[geek tragedy]

6. OTOH, Democrats had gotten complacent in not competing in the rural and small town

areas of the country, so long as it was "only" the House of Representatives, governorships, and state legislatures at stake.

We can consider Trump's inside straight win a reminder that we win when we're the party of all the people. Republicans can get away with being a narrow party. We can't.

[hueymahl]

8. This is a great response

The electoral college was put in place to stop the "tyranny" of the majority and protect lesser populated states. "States Rights" is a loaded political phrase, but that is essentially what is going on.

The Democratic Party, and Hillary, failed by dismissing these rural counties. Far from being capricious, the electoral college is operating exactly as designed. It is forcing major parties and candidates to take positions that are acceptable to a wide swath of the electorate, not just the majority.

And you are also exactly right that the DNC has failed to focus on rural areas and have instead dismissed them as "deplorables, racists, and ignorant". Talk about a failure of identity politics.

[FBaggins]

7. Looks like fun... but it's a silly notion to take seriously

Draw one new state 25 miles wide that encompasses the VA suburbs of DC, through Philadelphia and Baltimore and ends in the CT suburbs of NYC... and we would never have another Democratic president.

[greatauntoftriplets]

9. Lake County, IL, had a strong blue trend this election.

It's not always so. For the last 10 or 12 years, the congressional seat has been handed back and forth between Democrat Brad Schneider and Republican Bruce Dold. This time around, Schneider unseated Dold. In 2018, it could be the other way around.

Also, in 2014, Lake County voted for Republican Bruce Rauner for governor. The only Illinois county that voted for Democrat Pat Quinn was Cook, which encompasses Chicago and many suburbs.

The theory above is interesting, though.

[musicblind]

10. K&R n/t