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Slate's Fred Kapan: A Win-Win-Win for Everyone (Except the Syrians)
A Win-Win-Win for Everyone (Except the Syrians)
The U.S.-Russian deal on Assad’s chemical weapons shows diplomacy is possible when interests converge.
By Fred Kaplan|Posted Saturday, Sept. 14, 2013
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (left) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hold a joint press conference in Geneva on Sept. 14, 2013, after they met for talks on Syria's chemical weapons.
Photo by Larry Downing/AFP/Getty Images
It should be no surprise that U.S. and Russian diplomats struck a deal to get rid of Syria’s chemical weapons so quickly. Both nations had strong converging interests to do just that. Diplomacy becomes almost easy under those circumstances.
Russian leaders have always been keen to block the spread of weapons of mass destruction. During Soviet days, the Kremlin was far fiercer—and more effective—at keeping nukes out of the hands of the Warsaw Pact nations than the White House was at keeping them away from its NATO allies.
It’s not that Soviet premiers had a deeper dread of nuclear war than American presidents. It’s that they had a greater need to impose control over their client states. In this sense, it’s likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin was horrified when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (or his henchmen) started firing rockets loaded with nerve gas. The horror stemmed not so much from the casualties as from the chaos it would set in motion. Assad’s move made him a client out of control; it suddenly aroused the ire of Westerners who had been kept at bay through two years of bloody mayhem and who were now seriously thinking of—or being pressured into—intervening militarily.
When Secretary of State John Kerry fatefully (who knows how casually?) remarked that the United States would halt its preparations for airstrikes if Assad destroyed his chemical arsenal, Putin said, “It’s a deal,” then muscled Assad to agree.
Several U.S. neocons scoffed that Putin’s gambit was merely a ploy to buy time, elevate his stature in the Middle East, and make President Barack Obama look weak. There was something to this, but the critics left out another motive, and I think the prime one: Putin really wanted to get rid of Assad’s chemical weapons and the instability they were bound to set off.
more...
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2013/09/the_u_s_russian_chemical_weapons_deal_is_a_win_win_win_for_everyone_except.html
The U.S.-Russian deal on Assad’s chemical weapons shows diplomacy is possible when interests converge.
By Fred Kaplan|Posted Saturday, Sept. 14, 2013
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (left) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hold a joint press conference in Geneva on Sept. 14, 2013, after they met for talks on Syria's chemical weapons.
Photo by Larry Downing/AFP/Getty Images
It should be no surprise that U.S. and Russian diplomats struck a deal to get rid of Syria’s chemical weapons so quickly. Both nations had strong converging interests to do just that. Diplomacy becomes almost easy under those circumstances.
Russian leaders have always been keen to block the spread of weapons of mass destruction. During Soviet days, the Kremlin was far fiercer—and more effective—at keeping nukes out of the hands of the Warsaw Pact nations than the White House was at keeping them away from its NATO allies.
It’s not that Soviet premiers had a deeper dread of nuclear war than American presidents. It’s that they had a greater need to impose control over their client states. In this sense, it’s likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin was horrified when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (or his henchmen) started firing rockets loaded with nerve gas. The horror stemmed not so much from the casualties as from the chaos it would set in motion. Assad’s move made him a client out of control; it suddenly aroused the ire of Westerners who had been kept at bay through two years of bloody mayhem and who were now seriously thinking of—or being pressured into—intervening militarily.
When Secretary of State John Kerry fatefully (who knows how casually?) remarked that the United States would halt its preparations for airstrikes if Assad destroyed his chemical arsenal, Putin said, “It’s a deal,” then muscled Assad to agree.
Several U.S. neocons scoffed that Putin’s gambit was merely a ploy to buy time, elevate his stature in the Middle East, and make President Barack Obama look weak. There was something to this, but the critics left out another motive, and I think the prime one: Putin really wanted to get rid of Assad’s chemical weapons and the instability they were bound to set off.
more...
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2013/09/the_u_s_russian_chemical_weapons_deal_is_a_win_win_win_for_everyone_except.html