We just won the recruitment battle for the House.

[grantcart]

Elections are determined by multiple factors that span a long period of time. Right now we are in the recruitment season. The great gift that the Boehner and Cruz has given us is three fold:

1) We will be able to recruit higher qualified candidates to run against Republicans.

2) The Republican will have more difficulty recruiting main stream candidates and will have more money and action from the nut wing of the party.

3) Democrats are likely to have fewer and friendlier primary fights while the Republicans are going to waste time, money in fratricidal primary fights. Our primary fights are more likely to strengthen General Election campaigns and the Republicans are more likely to undermine GE.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/10/16/gop-shutdown-disaster-could-give-dems-a-big-lift/

With the news breaking that John Boehner will allow a House vote on a Senate deal to end the crisis, meaning Republicans surrendered with nothing to show for weeks of crisis brinkmanship, how does that impact GOP fortunes heading into 2014?

Though the shutdown mess has given Dems a sizable lead in the generic House ballot matchup, that will almost certainly fade. But it could have a lasting impact if it enables Dems to recruit good candidates right now, which could matter to the outcome.

In an interview, DCCC chair Steve Israel told me a number of new recruits would be announced in coming days, thanks to GOP damage sustained in the crisis.

“Conservatively, you will see another three — it could be as many as five,” Israel told me. “In a number of districts we had top-tier, all-star potential candidates who several months ago didn’t see a path to victory. They reopened the doors. These are competitive districts. They tend to be moderate and have large concentrations of independent voters. Those voters are now seeing the Tea Party implement their agenda.”

. . .

Israel says Dems will meet that goal. “I think we’ll get it into the range of 40,” he said. “I don’t accept that we’re at 20-25 top recruits. I would put it right now in the mid-30s.”

[Benton D Struckcheon]

1. Heh.

Maybe it really is true Cruz is a Dem mole???

[flamingdem]

7. Word is he's a

Fidel Castro mole! (Viva la revolucion, people forget he's Cuban born in Canada, where zee brainwashing took place).

[enough]

2. Finding a good candidate is going to be crucial in my district (PA-06).

Jim Gerlach has been in the seat for quite a while and always wins, but not by huge margins (though growing). He was one of the first R's to come out saying he would vote to end the shutdown (though of course he took no actual positive role in it).

His shamelessly gerrymandered district runs from suburbs of Philadelphia out into ultra-conservative farm country. The problem is that the R's control every level of local government in most of the district, so it's hard to find people with any political experience or credibility to run as Democrats. The D's who do run are wonderful people and committed, but without political experience (and plenty of money), it's really an uphill battle.

But this would really be the year for somebody who's been thinking about it but not taking the plunge. I'm sure there are more people than usual mulling this over now. I hope this article is right.

[grantcart]

3. And here is how the gerrymandering can blow up in their faces.

If we can compete in a gerrymandering district it means that all of the neutral districts are going to lean Democratic.

There is another big problem for the Republicans.

The infighting also has a huge impact on lower races like city council and mayor.

In California, for example, there is no statewide Republican office holder and no rational person is going to run for them, including Senators.

That means that the really talented young Republican doesn't see a credible career path and will just opt to stay in the business world rather than competing in entry level races and working their way up.

Ted Cruz has absolutely no idea the damage he is causing.

Go Ted Go.

[enough]

11. So interesting. In PA, you can reverse the party names and have the same story.

But maybe there will be some breaking up of the ice at this point.

[Squinch]

4. I wish Nate would take a stab at this.

[jeff47]

5. He did. Summary: Too early to say. (nt)

[Squinch]

6. Oh, thanks! I missed it.

[grantcart]

8. he's going to have a difficult time factoring into the continuing civil war and primary

battles that will continue through next year.

[Hutzpa]

9. Well he better get his popcorn ready

and a big couch for all of us.

[Shampoyeto]

12. Nate said Dems "face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House"

http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown

[RainDog]

10. k&r n/t