PPP: Abbott leads Wendy Davis by 15 points

[bigdarryl]

Fucking Texas rednecks and I mean some of the democrats also who according to this poll are supporting Abbott WTF!!!!! First we have democrats in NJ supporting porky pig Christie and now in Texas Dems are going for a rethug http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/abbott-leads-davis-by-15.html

[lostincalifornia]

1. I don't see much about the women vote in this poll

[bigdarryl]

2. Well PPP is very good so I'm not going to

Discredit there polling but I know one thing democrats have a lot of work to do in Texas this race could end up like the Governors race in NJ a blowout.

[lostincalifornia]

3. I was not discrediting them, I just would like to see the breakdown.

[former9thward]

4. It was 50/50

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman 50% ...........................................................
Man 50%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_TX_1105.pdf

[lostincalifornia]

5. Thanks

[thevoiceofreason]

6. In Texas, follow the Texas Tribune for accurate results

I don't think PPP knows how to poll my crazy neighbors.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. Wait. What happened to the "only 6 points" from just yesterday???

[Rstrstx]

8. A deeper look at some numbers are suspicious, and some show where Davis needs to concentrate

These are some results I find to be the most unlikely:

Abbott holds a 5 point lead among Hispanic voters (Not. Gonna. Happen.) Stranger, his favorability ratings among Hispanics are underwater while Davis' are just above among Hispanics. He is also is garnering 28% of the "very liberal" voters while getting just 9% from the "somewhat liberal" group and 18% of the "moderate" group. Again highly unlikely, though I hope the moderate number holds up. The trend is even apparent in the lt. gov.'s race, though much less pronounced.

Young voters: Abbott holds a suspicious 51-32 lead among voters 18-45 in a 2-way race and a 51-35 lead over Davis in a 3-way with Medina. Voters aged 46-64 are supporting Abbott by 4 points in a 2-way race and are tied at 40-40 in a 3-way contest. The older votes are the strongest R, no surprise there. The young voter results defy the laws of politics. Maybe TX is special, but I really doubt it's THAT special. It's especially puzzling when you look at the crosstabs with the lt. gov. race, where both candidates are tied among the 18-45 crowd.

The abortion law: the biggest group to oppose it are moderates, ahead of somewhat liberal and even further ahead of the very liberal!


It also shows the areas where the Dems needs to improve: among Hispanics (which I think will happen) and among males, where she is doing terribly if this poll is to be taken at face value. They also need to get the Hispanic turnout way higher than the 19% in this poll, which may well happen if the Dems pump enough money into the campaign to let voters know where Abbott stands on issues of immigration and healthcare, especially Medicaid (hint: they're to the right of Perry).

Those issues plus the voter ID law (which will hopefully be blocked by next year) are driving issues Davis and other Dems need to hit hard on early and often and it's gonna take a LOT of cash and groundwork. The abortion law should only be brought up by how extreme it is, people have long since made up their minds on the issue and only seem swayed by drastic circumstances.

If Obamacare is successful next fall Davis and Dems around the country stand a much better chance of getting elected, that goes without saying. Where Davis and Co. can really stick it to the Repubs are among poorer voters of all races who make too much to qualify for Medicaid but not enough to get an insurance subsidy.

The disinformation out there about the ACA is huge, just a few days ago I was talking to a lady who was terribly worried she would have to pay $180/mo or more for insurance while she's only earning about $1400/mo in a part-time job. I did the numbers and she should be able to get a decent policy for just over $50/mo but had no clue. I wrote down some websites she could go to and look at the numbers and she was amazingly grateful. If this demographic figures out they're getting screwed over by the Rs before next fall it could spell real trouble for them. The (very real) website horror stories should be forgotten by then as well as the more conjured up sensationalist headlines and people should know how much they're benefitting or losing out.

[bigdarryl]

9. Maybe it's coming down to her being a woman candidate after all it is Texas

PPP is good so we can't discredit there numbers when there not in our favor.The bottom line here is the party has to come up with good candidates to run in these upcoming elections.And I'm not sure Davis is in the eyes of the Texans one of them

[DavidDvorkin]

10. Ann Richards.

[Rstrstx]

12. I know they're a good polling firm but some of the crosstabs don't make sense

A glance of the data leads me to believe that young white males were oversampled in the survey. The 18-45 crowd was the only age group to support the abortion bill, even the 65+ folks opposed it, and the young'uns tended to be go more for Republicans than the 46-64 crowd. Demographically the 18-45 crowd should have more minorities but the numbers don't show it. That may explain some, but not all, of the inconsistencies.

I'm also scratching my head at how Wendy Davis' percent went UP in a three way race vs head-to-head. Greg's numbers dropped some as you would expect when a tea-party candidate is running but I don't know how Wendy ends up picking up more total votes when 3 candidates are running.

It said 500 Texas voters were sampled. I'd be curious if they did any corrections in the raw numbers.

Look, obviously Wendy is the underdog, I've never seen a poll where she has led Abbott, but I'd take that 15 point lead with a grain of salt. The election is a long ways away, look at 1990. Like I mentioned earlier it's going to take a lot of time and money from the national Dems and other groups to get her numbers up there, which can happen, and dear old Greg is not the most likable person - I can see her stomping him in a debate. That could get her within striking distance if she had a laser-focused campaign, together with a massive ground game. Obamacare/Medicaid is probably going to be the top issue, abortion a distant third or fourth.

I'm not sure the Dems want to spend the money on this race if they see better opportunities elsewhere, but she is a good candidate (the best I think) which voters so far only know her for one thing. Once she gets more exposure I think she'll improve her numbers.

[winter is coming]

13. +1. The breakdown suggests that their "representative sampe" wasn't representative. n/t

[JaneyVee]

11. If its any consolation, PPP blew it last night in VA polls. But they usually are very good.

[grantcart]

14. What did they have in VA?

They are usually very good.