North Carolina's choice

[illegaloperation]

It would be tough to find another state where the political terrain has shifted as dramatically as it has here — from kindling hopes of a Democratic revival in the South just a few years ago, to becoming a conservative hotbed that banned gay marriage, tightened restrictions on abortion clinics and enacted a sweeping voter ID law.

In 2014, voters will have a chance to decide which of those two governing visions they prefer — Barack Obama’s Washington or one-party GOP rule in Raleigh ­ — in one of the most competitive, consequential Senate races in the country.

It will be a choice between Kay Hagan, a rookie Democratic senator who voted for Obamacare and says, however haltingly, that she would do so again, and a conservative challenger — perhaps the figure who shepherded that wish list through the Legislature, Thom Tillis, or other rivals like Mark Harris or Greg Brannon who would go even further.

The race underscores the larger challenges facing both parties nationally as they head into the midterms. Democrats are struggling to survive in conservative states as they try to combat Obama’s growing unpopularity and antipathy to the health care law they helped enact. But Republicans are at risk of overreaching with a sharply conservative agenda at a time when their elected leaders are shifting further to the right and independent voters are angry at both parties.

Hagan, who triumphed against longtime Republican Elizabeth Dole to win the seat in 2008, is clearly banking on the hope that voters will punish her opponents for the actions of the GOP-led Legislature and their own hard-right views, whether it’s Tillis’s unapologetic agenda, Harris’s views that being gay is a lifestyle choice or Brannon’s calls to repeal everything from the minimum wage to virtually every gun law.

(...)

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/north-carolina-2014-kay-hagan-101052.html

[Kelvin Mace]

1. NC will remain in GOP hands and Hagan will lose

unless the Dems spend rivers of cash. Art Pope own the government at this point, and Hagan is a Vichy Dem who will be turfed out because she has alienated must of the liberal base with her toadying up to conservatives. She is anti-gay marriage, pro-Wall Street, pro-gun, pro-big oil, and anti-DREAM Act.

[illegaloperation]

3. You don't know much about her do you?

1. She voted for expanded background check (the one that didn't pass)
2. She declared her support for same sex marriage.

[Kelvin Mace]

9. As I pointed out in other posts

her stance on marriage equality was very anti until it became politically untenable to hold that position. Her position, from her own mouth up to that point was:

"I believe marriage is between a man and a woman and that it’s fundamentally a state issue the federal government has no business getting involved in".

As to gun control:

I am a strong supporter of Second Amendment rights. My children received lifelong hunting licenses when they were born, and hunting has been a favorite pastime of our family. Responsible gun ownership is not only part of the fabric of my state, but it is also a fundamental Constitutional right. I pledge to continue to protect their rights when I am in the US Senate.

(From her 2008 campaign web site)

I know quite a bit about her, thank you very much. Followed her very closely when she ran against Jim Neal in the primary and watched all the pro-business types line up behind her.

[illegaloperation]

14. This is nonsense.

The majority of the Democratic senators at the time did NOT support same sex marriage.

Even Obama didn't support same-sex marriage at the time.

[Kelvin Mace]

19. And he was wrong, just as Hagan was wrong

Both of them fought against marriage equality until it was politically safe to change sides (and when LGBT groups began to financially boycott Obama and his ilk coming up to the 2012 election). As soon as it became a bigger financial liability to hold that position, both Obama and Hagan switched sides just in time to join the winners. They had to pretty much be dragged kicking and screaming to the vote.

Next people will be lecturing me about how Bill Clinton was a champion for gay rights.

[illegaloperation]

22. Just to make this clear,

while it is politically safe for Obama to now support same-sex marriage, it certainly isn't for Hagan.

Amendment 1 passed with 61% of the vote in 2012.

[Kelvin Mace]

24. My point is

that had Obama (and Hagan) LEAD on this issue, they would have galvanized the Left and LGBT activists would have flocked to the call and poured money into their campaigns. Instead the Dems HID from the Left, sided with the Right and cost us two elections.

[illegaloperation]

25. The problem is that there's simply isn't enought liberal voters for that strategy to work.

North Carolina is NOT Virginia. Hagan cannot win reelection by running up huge margins in Northern Virginia while badly losing the rest of the state. Yes, the Research Triangle/Charlotte is growing, but they combined simply aren't as big as Northern Virginia.

Let's say that Hagan is a champion of gay rights and LGBT groups and other left leaning groups flooded the race with money: now what?

Hagan is still going to need to get some of those backward hillbillies who voted for Romney to vote for her to get 50% + 1 and I doubt that too many of them support same-sex marriage.

The Democratic base in North Carolina simply isn't big enough for a "turn out the base" strategy to work.

[Kelvin Mace]

26. That is the ASSUMPTION

Since we never have an Elizabeth Warren type candidate with backing of the party (since the conventional wisdom says they can't get elected), it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

A populist liberal railing against NAFTA, CAFTA, outsourcing, corporate welfare, predatory lenders, neglect of soldiers in favor of defense contractors, and pushing raising the minimum wage would find VERY sympathetic ears. I work in a VERY conservative sector, surround by blue-collar workers who are scratching to get by and these are the issues that matter to them.

[tabbycat31]

27. This

[Dawson Leery]

4. Nonsense.

She is for equal rights for gays.
Many things can happen in the next 11 months.

[Kelvin Mace]

8. She is now, when the political climate made it an imperative

In the past, not so much.

She is on record, and I heard her with my own ears when the question was asked, as favoring state's deciding the question of marriage equality.

"I’m close to John Edwards on this – I believe marriage is between a man and a woman and that it’s fundamentally a state issue the federal government has no business getting involved in. But I take a back seat to no one when it comes to equal opportunity and fairness. I oppose ANY form of discrimination and I believe that partnerships should be protected when it comes to financial issues, hospital visits, employment, and housing issues."

http://pamshouseblend.firedoglake.com/2008/04/09/nc-us-senate-candidate-kay-hagan-refuses-to-answer-basic-questions-about-lgbt-legislation/

So, she was not pro-gay until it became a liability not to be. Even if we were to set that aside, she is still pro-Wall Street and pro-gun and generates little enthusiasm among genuine liberals in the state. She has never struck me in my listening to her discourse as particularly bright (We had to explain "Loving v. Virgina" to her and she insists that she could work "across the aisle" despite mountains of evidence that the GOP NEVER compromises).

She has also voted to extend the Patriot Act, she is a border security hawk and opposes amnesty for undocumented workers.

So, she has assumed positions that will mobilize the loonies against her, yet opposed key progressive issues which would turn out the party base.

Thus I re-iterate: Without massive spending by the Dems (and the current Dem leadership have abandoned Dean's 50 state strategy) Hagan will lose and the state will get redder.

[VirginiaTarheel]

5. You don't know much about Hagan or North Carolina

The Moral Monday movement is one of the most dynamic progressive movements in the nation.

[Kelvin Mace]

6. I have lived in NC since 1985

And served on NC Select Committee on e-voting back in 2005. I also covered Hagan's run and how she was yet another bipartisan fetishest. She also was anti-marriage equality then and only changed her position when it was politically convenient to do so.

I do not doubt that the Moral Monday's are "one of the most dynamic progressive movements in the nation". That does not change the fact that Art Pope owns every conservative legislator in this state, up to, and including the governor. They are destroying the state, but have sufficient money to impose their will on an ignorant electorate of who would vote for Jesse Helms' corpse if the GOP dug it up and ran it for office.

[tabbycat31]

11. I'm in NC right now

And Dems will be spending a lot of money on Hagan's race.

All of the (staunch Democrats) that I work with think that she's not the most liberal senator but see the point that she's the most liberal that NC can elect statewide and that the Senate needs her. (I work for an environmental nonprofit that will most likely endorse Hagan--- if you want to know who PM me as I don't want to disclose that on a public forum.)

I've been here since July and noticed that outside of the cities, the state is deep red.

[Kelvin Mace]

12. We could do far better than Hagan

but the Dem leadership in NC buy into the BS that a genuine Elizabeth Warren type cannot get elected in NC, when an EW candidate would bring out the base in droves. As long as the Dems keep giving us centrist Republicans to vote for, it is going to be a hard fight.

When Hagan was first elected it was very much because of Howard Dean's 50 state strategy to contest ALL races with maximum effort. Now the leadership is back to picking and choosing how to "use its money effectively" and how not to upset Wall Street. On the other side, conservative extremists are spending, and will spend, whatever is needed to retain ownership of the state.

I am really tired of the "lesser of two evils" election choices. This state was trending Blue, but was abandoned by the Dems in 2010 and 2012 (meaning they did not make the effort they made in 2006 and 2008). The current leader of the Dems is Tim Kaine and that does not bode well for reclaiming NC.

I would love to be wrong.

[dsc]

16. she had a liberal primary opponent

for whom I worked and voted, but he lost 4 to 1. Hard to see how a iberal candidate is turning out the base is going to happen.

[Kelvin Mace]

18. He lost because she was the establishment choice

The Dems did everything possible to back Hagan and undercut Neal. They were TERRIFIED of "teh gay".

The Dem leadership in this state is VERY conservative, bordering on Dixiecrats.

[dsc]

20. clearly they favored her

but look at Cruz and the guy who knocked off Lugar to take two examples. Had the electorate of the state Democratic party really wanted Neal it could have had him, but they decided against him and for Hagan.

[Dawson Leery]

13. +1

[quadrature]

2. Hagan is toast

better to spend $$$ in Colo, Minn,
NH, Iowa

[freedumb]

7. definitely a shame. i used to like nc and thought they were pretty darn cool.

just goes to show it doesn't take long for the rightwing to get a stranglehold over the very gubmint that they profess to hate so much. it's actually genius on the con's part: they can't win national elections anymore, so they'll just make sure each red state is bought and paid for at the local level. this is just one more instance of the dems always playing catchup politics to the evil geniuses of the gop. oh well. guess i'll just have to limit my trips down to nc since i don't feel like paying road tolls to some fuckin for-profit corporation.

[Kelvin Mace]

10. Art Pope bought the state

and now the Dems won't spend the money to get it back, despite having a pretty strong base to work with.

[tabbycat31]

15. I will put money on the national Dems spending on Hagan's race

As well as several outside groups (including my employer).

[Kelvin Mace]

17. Hope you are right

but the Dems have let us down four years running.

[tabbycat31]

21. Incumbents in tough races are always helped by the national party

http://www.dscc.org/races/north-carolina


In addition, the company I work for (PM me and I will tell you who) is on the airwaves in Charlotte with an ad supporting her. People are already talking about her race.

[illegaloperation]

23. I will say this:

The national party will put the money into this race.

There simply aren't many scenarios where Hagan loses and the Democrats keep the majority in the senate.

If Hagan loses, Pryor, Landrieu, and Begich would (most likely) be toast.