PPP Poll: Sink leading Jolly in FL special election. Poised to take down this TeaPublican.

[RBInMaine]

Released just one hour ago. (See link below.)

Sink is up 48% to 45% with the Libertarian polling 6%. Sink is beating him in early voting and is CRUSHING him with the Indies. And that Indy vote is what is scaring he crap out of the TeaPubs because it is a BAD sign for them in their gubernatorial race.



http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/ppp-poll-alex-sink-48-david-jolly45-lucas-overby-6/2169464

[MindMover]

1. Crist has already won the race for Governor ...

[RBInMaine]

2. Possibly, though he needs to run one hell of a campaign yet and BURY "Skeletor" deep in the dirt.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

5. As they say, "from your mouth to God's ears." I'm sick of Rick Scott, the swindler and fascist. nt

[MindMover]

7. We are all sick of politicians that are only in politics to benefit themselves .....

SICK AND TIRED OF THERE STUPID GAMES ....

[Sarah Ibarruri]

8. I agree! I'm getting that I don't curb what I say anymore. I just come out with whatever I think

regardless of who it is. Like you, I am so sick and tired of it.

[Orlandodem]

3. Post this to Facebook, Twitter, and every message board possible to depress

the Republican vote.

Conversely we have to GOTV for Sink!!!!

[bigdarryl]

4. Is this a poll or is the voting started yet

Because if its a poll I wouldn't breakout the champaign just yet

[RBInMaine]

6. It's PPP who are usually very accurate, and yes, early voting has started. Also this is supported by

the other polls and indications. This needs to be posted everywhere to put that "We've lost it." feeling in the guts of the TeaPubs.

[marew]

9. I live in Pinellas County.

And I sent in my ballot by mail probably 10 days ago. For Sink, of course!

[packman]

15. Early Voting-special election

Florida's 13th District - just one county. Can't wait for the big one.

[Gothmog]

10. Please GOTV for Alex Sink

I really hope that Sink wins this race

[mikekohr]

11. YES! but GOTV, we snatch defeat from the jaws of victory to often. nt

[Sancho]

12. I've been polled several times, more than I ever remember before!

Sink has a much better ground game - people walking door to door, phone calls, emails.

I've been approached a bunch of time by Sink folks, and not once for Jolly (and I'm in a repub neighborhood).

I really hope we win this one!!!

[DonCoquixote]

13. the fire is not out

until you kill the embers and place your hand on the ashes...

In other words...no let up till the GOP LOSES!

[mgcgulfcoast]

14. we will win by +20

never in doubt

[TroyD]

16. What's the best place to find tonight's results?

I think the polls are closing now.

Will it be on the Florida elections site?

[mgcgulfcoast]

17. yes, also try politico

[TroyD]

18. Alex Sink should have won the 2010 Gubernatorial Race

After losing such a heartbreakingly close race in 2010 for Florida Governor, it would be nice redemption for Alex Sink to win tonight!

[hrmjustin]

19. So much for ppp.

[TroyD]

20. PPP is trying to defend itself on Twitter tonight

With somewhat pathetic excuses.

[hrmjustin]

21. I saw. They are better at state races than house races.

Also there was a late surge of Republican absentee ballots.

[BlueCaliDem]

26. Absentee ballots is where the REAL voter fraud happens.

I don't trust those Republicans absentee ballots. So before we crucify Alex Sink for not winning as the polls have shown, perhaps we need to review that deluge of Republican absentee ballots first.

[CVN-68]

27. No one, not even Alex Sink, is claiming any voter fraud.

Last edited Thu Mar 13, 2014, 11:00 AM - Edit history (1)

Maybe it really is just a case of Dem voters not going to the polls to vote.

[BlueCaliDem]

28. She can't. It would make her really look like sore loser, wouldn't it?

But studies have shown that there is a LOT of voter fraud in absentee ballots:

There is more fraud in absentee ballots and voter registration than any other categories. The analysis shows 491 cases of absentee ballot fraud and 400 cases of registration fraud. A required photo ID at the polls would not have prevented these cases.

To believe that it's just a case of lazy Democratic voters is to dismiss the real underlying problem that's effectively killing our democratic process - and at the same time, buy into the Democratic Party enemies' narrative to keep them and their tactics obscure until it's too late.

[CVN-68]

29. You're probably right about Ms. Sink being viewed as a sore loser if she claimed voter fraud,

but, so far, no one else has claimed it either, so that would lead one to believe that there are no indications of any voter fraud, yet.

In this case, it would appear to be a simple case of just not enough Dems going to vote.

[BlueCaliDem]

30. That's how it would appear.

But I'm not convinced. Given the Republican penchant for cheating and lying to win power where they can't, and given that the PPP polls had Alex Sink ahead of her Republican/Teabagger opponent, her loss doesn't add up. And I won't give Republicans the benefit of the doubt in this.

Remember, there was a time when it was impossible for anyone to believe that a presidential candidate can steal a nationwide election and be crowned president. GW Bush proved that it wasn't only possible, but it can be done twice. But at that time, no corporate media reported it that way. The narrative, instead, was that Al Gore and John Kerry and their respective campaigns left Democrats and Liberals "nonplussed" so that they didn't want to come out and vote, just as their narrative is now with Alex Sink although she ran a good and tough campaign and GOTV drive.

Now, years after GWBush's "wins", we know the truth - he and the plutocrats who support him had stolen our voices. Our democracy is being ripped to shreds while we keep swallowing the "Democrat didn't run a good campaign" narrative and the "there's no widespread corruption in our electoral process" myth.

[CVN-68]

35. There's truth in what you say,

but until there's some evidence of voter fraud, I'm going to go with that it's a turnout issue.

[BlueDemKev]

36. Yep.

"Maybe it really is just a case of Dem voters not going to the polls to vote."

Yep, that's exactly what it is. 11-2-10 all over again. WTF do we need to do to make every member of our voting base understand that it isn't just presidential elections that are important!?!

[flpoljunkie]

22. Sink was ahead in early and absentee votes, but Jolly got 12% more votes election day

Very interesting.

[CVN-68]

24. That's what happens when Dems don't bother to show up and vote.

Nothing interesting about it.

[stevenleser]

33. That is exactly it. A turnout issue. nt

[Chestrockwell]

23. its not ppp's fault the voters didn't show.

It's the voters. 37% what a joke!!!!

[Excelsyor]

34. It is a pollster's job to forecast how many will show up

Who is the judge of how many voters were expected to show up? Is 37% too low compared to expectations? Says who?

PPP has blown many, many House elections.

[RBInMaine]

31. Well, I've got some egg on the face here, but most polling and projections indicated a Sink win.

Last edited Fri Mar 14, 2014, 06:51 AM - Edit history (2)

But, what happened is that on election day, more reliable Pukes came out than Dems. This is partly the fault of Dem and rank and filers who need dynamite lit under their asses to get them off the couch to vote, and partly the fault of the Dem party in FL who recruited a dull candidate who ran an uninspiring campaign, so too many of the base were not excited and they did not mobilize them well enough to get to get them polls. The FL Dem party rather stinks, all in all.

[Excelsyor]

37. Can you prove that "all the polling" predicted a Sink win?

?

[RBInMaine]

39. Certainly most from all I saw. Research it. As well as the pundits. And of course the PPP cited

here.

[Excelsyor]

41. Apparently there is no link to "all you saw"

Let me help you out: It is not true that all polls predicted a victory by Sink.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-florida-house-13th-district-special-election#!

[RBInMaine]

44. Your own link confirms my assertion. A good half that had Jolly ahead were R polls. Look at

the average of polls and trend lines. BOTH had Sink slightly ahead. Most pundits also gave Sink the slight edge in this. The R's were bracing for the possibility of a loss of this seat. I stand by what I say. Do more research if you have to.

Also, to be fair I should have said "most" polls and not "all," as I corrected in my other reply to you and in my first reply above saying "all." (Again, I don't count the partisan R polls in that.)

The problem was a Dem strategy that relied on a rather lackluster candidate from outside the district, an overly centrist approach in a very base-driven special election with traditionally low turnout, the lack of hammering on a few hot button issues to rally base voters, and a failure to micro target and turnout D voters who normally only vote in presidential cycles. In the end, it was the same old story of more friendly R voters showing up on election day than D voters in an area where R's have more registered voters and a traditional edge in non presidential elections. Simple as that.

Why did PPP get it wrong in the end? Because while PPP is normally very accurate, special election turnout remains hard to predict with extreme precision even with sophisticated polling methods, and, in the endgame, more R friendly voters turned out than D friendly voters. What I think this all shows us, and what the FL Dem party better take away, is that this was a winnable race had they not made the mistakes stated above. Had Sink won, it would have been by a small margin, so the polling was all still CLOSE just as the election results were.

[Excelsyor]

45. My link confirmed that your assertion was false

And even if you now pretend that Republican pollsters aren't pollsters, you are not excluding PPP, which got it wrong and is a Democratic pollster. And no, PPP is not normally very accurate in House elections. Its accuracy is from Presidential elections.

Have you ever seen analysis praising PPP's awesome House performance? No.

The most important thing is that you said all pollsters predicted a Sink win, and now you had to change your title, and you wouldn't have changed if I had not corrected you.

You are also pretending that a non-partisan pollster had Sink and Jolly tied up.

And this is for people who still think PPP rules. Experts such as Nate Cohn and Nate Silver have criticized PPP"s methodology. PPP is not a good pollster. Links:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed
There's Something Wrong With America's Premier Liberal Pollster

Nate Silver vs. Public Policy Polling
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/09/11/nate-silver-vs-public-policy-polling/

Here's your rule: If a Democratic pollster gets it right = awesome
If a Republican pollster gets it right = So what. They're Republican
If a non-partisan pollster says it's a tie = pretend the non-partisan pollster doesn't exist.

[RBInMaine]

46. When people quickly write replies on these boards, every syllable isn't always perfect.

If you must nitpick away to win a silly argument, go ahead. Often people in the moment rhetorically write or say "all" when they mean "most" or "largely" or "the bulk of" or whatever. OK, you win the rhetorical nitpick argument. Yes, fine, in my haste I confess I said "all" meaning "most" so yes, I did correct my little rhetorical error, as I TOLD you I did. (I did know there were some polls leaning it to Jolly.) And, as I clearly indicate, I was also considering the analyses from the pundits who were giving it to Sink.

Nate Silver isn't perfect either. PPP generally has a good reputation. Special elections are tough to predict. Believe what you want. Nitpick away.

You have no explanation for the very trend lines and probability prediction that YOU cited giving the edge to Sink. Other analyses in the days before the election were leaning it toward Sink. You can research those too. Just Google a little more and nitpick those out as well.

Regardless of the nitpicking and hair splitting over the precision of the predictions, this was a winnable race. Sink, her team, and the FL Dems failed to bring her across the line because of campaign errors. Maybe we can agree on that.

[MFM008]

32. i still suspect they stole it somehow

either way Im through with polls.. see: President Romney.

[Imajika]

38. The bulk of the polls showed Romney would lose........and he lost

Not sure I get your point about dismissing polls.

The polls were pretty accurate in predicting an Obama victory over Romney. Only a couple outliers had Mitt winning, and those were overhyped by Fox in their desperation to believe they could take Obama down.

Anyone watching the 2012 race with a non biased perspective knew the President would be re-elected. The only bump in the road for Obama was the first debate.

Reputable polling firms are pretty accurate, especially when using something like the RCP average. Primaries and special elections are tougher to predict, but PPP got pretty close. One Republican polling firm actually had it right, but PPP is a very good polling outfit and got the final numbers pretty close.

[RBInMaine]

42. No, it was a failure of Dem turnout in the endgame. Plain and simple.

[UCmeNdc]

40. If the Democratic Party does not focus on an extensive GOTV effort they will lose

No GOTV No win.......

[RBInMaine]

43. They did run a turnout effort. It looks like the problem was they did not target enough voters who

don't normally vote in off cycle elections from the get go. The great lessons here are: recruit exciting candidates, key in on some hot button issues that will excite the base, get loud with those issues, and, from the start, go after your voters who don't normally show up in off cycle elections like special elections.