2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLarry Sabato's Crystal Ball: Bush Pushes Christie Aside
2016 Republican Presidential Update: A New, Familiar Name at the TopLarry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik, U.Va. Center for Politics March 20th, 2014
In our first ranking of the very large and very unsettled 2016 Republican presidential field back in April of last year, we decided to not even include the name of one of the brightest stars in the GOP universe: Jeb Bush. We just didnt think, at the time, that the former Florida governor and brother and son of presidents was all that interested in running.
But during 2013 and into this new year, weve gotten the sense, like many others, that things might be changing. So much so that we now consider Bush the leader of the field if he decides to run.
Why?
There are several reasons, and one of the most important does not have much to do with Bush, at least on the surface: Chris Christies bridge scandal.
To understand the potential importance of laffaire bridge in determining whether Jeb Bush might run for president, we need to look back at the 2012 presidential cycle.
more
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2016-gop-presidential-update-a-new-familiar-name-at-the-top/
rurallib
(62,413 posts)How fucking stupid can America be?
freebrew
(1,917 posts)I forgot who said: "you can't go broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people."
And Einstein said something like "there's more stupidity in the universe than hydrogen".
We should all worry. Mitt was downright stupid, McOldguy was batshit crazy.
Jeb is sneaky and not as dumb.
rurallib
(62,413 posts)I think some have attributed it to good old P.T. Barnum. P.T. is a man I think of all the time - the way he fleeced the sheep with his shows and exhibition and they begged for more and more and more. No doubt he would be a great example of a job creator today.
Just checked - yep it was Mencken
monmouth3
(3,871 posts)XiaomuWave
(18 posts)Republicans have nominated the runner up in a previous primary or a prior VP almost every time in the last hundred years or so. One of the exceptions - the son of a President.
Then after he loses, Bush will be joining the ranks of McCain and Romney who werent conservative enough!
sofa king
(10,857 posts)... I told my better half that if Jeb Bush wanted to run, the first thing he'd have to do is destroy Chris Christie.
Christie had done his homework and was as well-positioned as a guy could be. He had his own private guy inside the US Senate and was a shoo-in for the Chairman of the National Governors Association in 2014 (he is still head of the Republican wing of that most powerful lobby, but now he's afraid to use the position), which in turn would have gone a long way toward securing the nomination in 2016.
(In Republican politics, governors are almost always the front-runners, and the nominee. Two excellent exceptions prove the rule: George H. W. Bush, and Richard Nixon. Nixon ran for governor and lost after he ran for President and lost, in an attempt to shore up his credentials. GHWB didn't follow the rule himself, but passed it on to his two sons.)
Christie's aspirations were deliberately designed to box out Jeb Bush himself, by setting Christie forth as a more important and more current governor.
We'll see how good Jeb is at controlling his own scandals, because one of them is almost certainly going to be evidence of contact between someone who betrayed Christie, and someone who works for Jeb.
I'd bet money on it.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Democracyinkind
(4,015 posts)He's setting himself up to be the proverbial Cavalry after the crazies have massacred each other.
Jeb was always Poppy's number one choice. And I don't believe that their criminal family and their criminal friends have achieved half of what they had in store for us during Chimpy's 8 years. If this assumption is correct, we should be watchful. The Bushes have a way of getting what they want, whether (s)elcted or not.
yortsed snacilbuper
(7,939 posts)2020!
The bu$he$ will be terrorizing us for a whole century!
TBF
(32,058 posts)He is running for some sort of commissioner position in Texas which I'm sure is seen as a stepping stone. They can read the demographics as well as any of us.
P is not very bright but he is photogenic. He's the re pug ' answer to the Castro Bros.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)even Biden would win by 10+.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Mexican wife...entire family bilingual. Does not lock them into a Hispanic VP candidate, as Hillary is likely to need, although I love Julian Castro as potential VP.