Lindsay Graham’s big scare: How an ex-con reality star could ruin his life

[DonViejo]

These are tough times for the Republican maverick.Where once this was a celebrated archetype among the conservative tribe (as long as it included a devotion to low taxes and global military dominance) today there is just no room for deviation from the party line in even the smallest of ways. Take, for example, the plight of Senator Lindsay Graham — who just suffered an epic humiliation at the hands of his own party in Charleston County, South Carolina for being a RINO turncoat:

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) was censured Monday night by Republicans in Charleston County who don’t believe he’s conservative enough.

According to The Post and Courier of Charleston, South Carolina, the vote to censure Graham was 39-32, “done by secret ballot and with limited discussion.”

“I want my politicians to be more conservative,” said Tom Sheridan, one of the supporters of the resolution.

The censure document covered about 30 points, including disapproval of Graham’s support for President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominees and of his cooperation with Democrats.

The Graham campaign issued a fiesty rebuttal insisting that they were going to take their campaign to all 20,000 Republicans in Charleston County and then see who comes out on top. The problem for Lindsay Graham is that the most liberal Republicans in the whole state live in Charleston County. The rest of the state is much more conservative.

The latest polling isn’t great news for him: 40 percent approve and 38 percent disapprove. And that’s actually an improvement over previous polls. Still, he is being challenged by 6 other Republicans for the GOP nomination and there is little reason to believe that he won’t be the nominee. All the political wags thinks he’ll make it over the 50 percent threshold.

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http://www.salon.com/2014/05/14/lindsay_grahams_big_scare_how_an_ex_con_reality_star_could_ruin_his_life/

[karynnj]

1. Given 6 opponents, I think he will survive the primary and then the polling will shift

as the right wing see a choice of a Democrat (ultimate evil in their eyes) and what they call a RINO. Just as many here have spoken of holding their noses and voting for Democrats they think are not all that good on the issues, the same will likely happen here.

The biggest danger to him would be if one of the 6 emerges from the pack and all of the people who want someone more conservative than Graham support the leader. This is the basic primary - Anybody But X . Though both liberal leaning Democrats and right leaning Republicans have spoken of this for some elections, it rarely happens - probably because it would require moving behind one alternative candidate and all the candidates have too much invested (time, money, ego etc) for them to back out. (I think we all remember the ABC - anybody but Carter and years later Anybody but Clinton --- yet Carter and Clinton became the nominees. More recently, on the Republican side, they never found one Anybody but Romney)

I suspect that if Graham wins the primary, he may well be safe in very red SC.

[tabbycat31]

2. From the signs I've seen

His opponents are really out to get him (I moved here 7 weeks ago and the first sign I saw was "The conservative solution to the Lindsey problem" on a billboard. (Guy's name is Richard Cash and I made the mistake of going to his website- what a looney).

If he does not survive the primary (if he gets into a runoff then I can see outside groups blanketing the challenger) and the right Democrat wins the primary (there's an establishment candidate and a rogue candidate) then it's a possibility for a pickup.

SC is not as red as people think it is.

[karynnj]

3. Doesn't look too likely - they are dividing the anti Graham vote - so it is not remotely close

I know Real Clear Politics is RW, but they do a good job summarizing the polls for Republican primaries. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/sc/south_carolina_senate_republican_primary-4090.html

[tabbycat31]

4. Is the cutoff 40 or 50%

THat makes a big difference whether Brad Hutto (the right Democrat) can win this seat.

The polls are also very old (newest one was February).

I also see "fire Lindsey Graham" and "Fire Rino Graham" signs all over the road. Maybe it's just the county I am in.

[karynnj]

5. This article says he needs 50% to avoid a run off

It is interesting that you are seeing so many signs like this. http://www.thestate.com/2014/02/26/3291831/poll-graham-holds-huge-lead-but.html