AP-GfK Poll: Obama leads Romney by 8 nationally...

[Drunken Irishman]

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%20Poll%20May%202012%20Topline%20final_2012eln.pdf

He leads Romney 50-42 among registered voters, but here are some important breakdowns:

Obama has a 58% favorable rating. Michelle Obama has a 70% favorable rating. Mitt Romney has only a 43% favorable rating (43% unfavorable). Ann Romney has only a 39% favorable rating, and a 23% unfavorable - so, much of her low rating is due to people not knowing much about her.

48% - a plurality - of Americans do not have a good idea of what policies Mitt Romney would pursue if elected president - only 28% say the same about Obama.

Obama bests Romney in handling the economy 46-44, protecting America 53-37 (when was the last time a Dem had THAT big of a lead on a Republican when it came to national security?!?), 47-41 on handling taxes and 53-32 on handling social issues - which does include same-sex marriage.

51% believe Obama understands the problems of people like you (us). Only 33% say the same about Romney.

50% say Obama is a strong leader, only 39% say the same about Romney.

54% say Obama says what he believes, only 31% say Romney.

These numbers show why Obama does have a sizable advantage on Romney heading into the meat of the campaign. If only it were November!

[rufus dog]

1. I don't think we will see much of a difference over the next six months

Polls will be manipulated, and Obama's unfavorable may inch up slightly due to negative ads. Mitt will also drive his own negatives up. Will end up with a landslide.

[jaysunb]

2. Agreed...

and the media will continue to pretend it's a deadheat. That's cool though, we need to keep our voters on their toes.

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. Why is it that only the neck & neck polls get airplay? Even NPR does this. WTF?

[demosincebirth]

4. The MSM wants a horese race, thats why.

[Cali_Democrat]

5. Because they know Obama has an advantage in this election

They're trying to boost Romney to make this competitive. So the only polls that will be hyped by the media are polls showing them neck and neck or Republican Rasmussen polls showing Romney ahead. Polls showing Obama ahead comfortably will be quickly tossed to the side because that will defeat the horse race meme the media is trying to put out there.

[Marsala]

6. Horserace sells. But it actually is close, like 2004 close.

Bush probably had the structural advantage in 2004, but it could have gone either way if a few factors had been different. This year will be similar.

[CobaltBlue]

7. More than '8'

I believe it's more like a 10- or 11-point lead.

Minimum.

And that's keeping in mind that President Obama beat John McCain, nationally, by over 7 points in 2008. (Typical results, when an incumbent gets re-elected to a second term, are increases in both the popular-vote margin and electoral-vote score.)

[Arkana]

8. Those taxes/economy numbers are the biggest pieces.

I think the numbers were reversed last time.