2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWill There Be A GOP Wave In The Senate—Or A Wipeout?
So wheres the wave? This is President Obamas sixth-year-itch election. The map of states with contested Senate seats could hardly be better from the Republicans vantage point. And the breaks this yearstrong candidates, avoidance of damaging gaffes, issues such as Obamacare and immigration that stir the party basehave mainly gone the GOPs way, very unlike 2012.
Nonetheless, the midterms are far from over. In every single one of the Crystal Balls toss-up states, (Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina), the Republican Senate candidate has not yet opened up a real polling lead in any of them. Democratic nominees have been running hard and staying slightly ahead, or close to, their Republican foes. (See Politico's interactive Senate ratings.)
Earlier this year, we published a wave chart giving the range of Senate election outcomes, from ripple to tsunami. Sometimes tidal waves, such as the 2006 Democratic swell that gave the party control of both houses of Congress, develop in late September or October. Thats certainly still a possibility for the GOP in 2014. However, the summer is waning, and as Labor Day approaches our estimate remains a Republican gain of four to eight seats, with the probability greatest for six or seven seatsjust enough to put Republicans in charge of Congress upper chamber. The lowest GOP advance would fall two seats short of outright control; the largest would produce a 53-47 Republican Senate.
A year ago, it was not hard to find Republican leaders who privately believed the party could score a dramatic breakthrough in the Senate, with the GOP emerging with perhaps 55 or 56 seats. This objective was vital not just for the jousting during President Obamas final two years in the White House. At least as important is the fact that the GOP sees a much less friendly Senate map in 2016, when it will have to defend 24 of 34 seats, including incumbents elected in 2010 in Democratic states such as Illinois, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In addition, presidential year turnouts usually draw far more minority and young voters to the polls, most of whom reliably vote Democratic from top to bottom of the ballot. A thin GOP Senate majority created this November could turn out to be very short-lived.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/08/reading-the-2014-tea-leaves-110325.html#ixzz3BX0Yovc9
BaggersRDumb
(186 posts)LoisB
(7,203 posts)Kablooie
(18,634 posts)sakabatou
(42,152 posts)ffr
(22,669 posts)Oh, I thought I forgot, but now I remember.
Pass it on. No More Republis! GOTV in November.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)is somehow finding SOME way to keep the senate in democratic hands, even by one seat ...
That is the absolute best case scenario ...
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)far.
DFW
(54,372 posts)And most everything has to go our way for us to keep a majority, but if I were a betting man, I'd say we keep it.
We have some good arguments, and all the Republicans have is hate for Obama and money. That may go far, but it doesn't give anyone health insurance or a job, or, apparently, make the Dow go up. The number of people who really have something to gain from a Republican Senate are few. GOTV will make or break us.
It will be a lot closer than the margin we have now though. The Republicans will net more seats, but not enough to change control. As I've said before Kentucky and Georgia are the one's that will make a differences. If we win one of those, I don't see any way they can take control.