What If Any, Will Be The "October Surprise", & Who Do You Believe It Will Favor?

[Corey_Baker08]

First of all I know I don't have to explain what an October Surprise is to anyone on DU, nor do I need to explain its history and what party it has predominately favored over the past 6 decades. Yet When I joined DU 11 years ago at 14 years old, I had no idea of what it meant or the history behind it, so in the event that there are those young Democrats like myself invested in this election, below is the explanation of the October Surprise in politics...

So I know it is usually more frequent during the Presidential Elections, but in this election, the stakes are higher, the outcome will be no doubt close and I wouldn't put it past the Republicans to pull their bullshit to employ their own October surprise...To my fellow DU'ers, will there or wont there be this political surprise?

In American political jargon, an October surprise is a news event deliberately created to influence the outcome of an election, particularly one for the U.S. presidency. The reference to the month of October is because the date for national elections (as well as many state and local elections) occurs between November 2 and 8, and therefore events that take place in late October have greater potential to influence the decisions of prospective voters.

The term came into use shortly after the 1972 presidential election between Republican incumbent Richard Nixon and Democrat George McGovern, when the United States was in the fourth year of negotiations to end the very long and domestically divisive Vietnam War. On October 26, 1972, twelve days before the election on November 7, the United States' chief negotiator, the presidential National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, appeared at a press conference held at the White House and announced, "We believe that peace is at hand."[1] Nixon, despite having vowed to end the unpopular war during his presidential election campaign four years earlier, had failed to cease hostilities but significantly reduced American involvement, especially ground forces. Nixon was nevertheless already widely considered to be assured of an easy reelection victory against McGovern, but Kissinger's "peace is at hand" declaration may have increased Nixon's already high standing with the electorate. In the event, Nixon outpolled McGovern in every state except Massachusetts and achieved a 20-point lead in the nationwide popular vote. Remaining U.S. ground forces were withdrawn in 1973, but U.S. military involvement in Vietnam continued until 1975.

Since that election, the term "October surprise" has been used preemptively during campaign season by partisans of one side to discredit late-campaign news by the other side.

Thanks & Damnit Lets Take It To The Republicans In November, Yes We Can, and with your vote, Hell Yes We Will!!!

Corey A Baker

[babylonsister]

1. Corey, you're schooling us! Recommend, and

so nice to see you again! I remember you...
Every day is a surprise for me with the current climate: I say in my head daily, nothing would surprise me, and am surprised daily by so much ignorance.

That said, it's going to be fascinating. I always think there can't be that many dumb people in America, then I think about the election in '04.

[Corey_Baker08]

4. I Have Learned More Political History On DU Than I Ever Have In Any Text Book, So I Credit DU!!!!

My life simply would not be the same have I never discovered DU. I was taught, tested & tried by my fellow Democrats and yes even some trolls in my years here on DU but it is people like you and so many more that have been there to teach me the history of politics, the rhyme & reason of the Democratic Party, Ive learned so much about Election Fraud, and just so much since joining DU, and what I have learned is nothing I would have ever learned in a textbook.

So while I may be reminding you of times past, it is you, my fellow members of Democratic Underground who have schooled me, and I am extremely thankful for that...

[babylonsister]

5. How sweet are you! So nice to hear from you,

and the positive impact DU had on you! Keep reading and absorbing and being curious; it's a good thing!

[blkmusclmachine]

2. ,

,

[edgineered]

3. Very nice. The mention of Nixon/McGovern brought me back

Hitchhiking up the NY State Thruway with three of my friends to attend the McGovern rally in Albany was the start of a nice day. Getting a ride immediately the driver of the bread truck that picked us up brought us directly to the capital. Of course being one guy with three girls our odds were good. The elections outcome wasn't.

[Dreamer Tatum]

6. October Surprise = DU's Great Pumpkin

Every year, every single fucking year, someone says one of the parties is trotting out an October Surprise. Hasn't happened once.

[Corey_Baker08]

9. Okay Well I Was 14 in 2004 & I Remember Clearly Osama Bin Laden Being The October Surprise...

That many believe was brought to the MSM by Republicans at a very very great time for President Bush...

[former9thward]

12. What happened with OBL in 2004?

He had been around a long time. He formally declared war on the U.S. in the mid-90s.

[karynnj]

17. A video tape message from him to the US magically surfaced at the very end of October

or early November. At that point, there had been a surge towards Kerry - especially as there had been confirmation that Bush's administration really had not secured the KNOWN ammo dumps in Iraq after they invaded and for months, people against us took what they wanted. The ammo was used in the IEDs that then were a major problem.

Kerry's very strong words that they failed to guard the ammo dumps and that very ammunition is now maiming and killing "our kids" and innocent Iraqis -- was the strongest meme out there. Other than emphasizing Kerry's real connect to the fate of the US military, it was a strong charge that they were negligent.

That was blown away with coverage of the OBL tape. In those few days, people who rallied around Bush after 911 - who maybe were considering voting for Kerry -- flocked to Bush. Bush won by a very narrow margin -- and even with this -- would have lost if Ohio would have had enough voting machines.

[Corey_Baker08]

18. Thank You For The Clarification Of The 2004 OBL October Surprise

I guess i assumed everyone remembered and or knew about it...

thanks

[karynnj]

19. thank you for the thread -- and great to see you again

[brooklynite]

7. There won't be one....

Does that answer your question?

[Corey_Baker08]

8. Really? What Makes You So Sure?

[brooklynite]

11. There wasn't one in 2012, 2010, 2008 or 2006?

Add to that, the ability of a Party to influence events sufficient to influence multiple individual House and Senate races is vastly over-rated.

[former9thward]

13. There will not be an October surprise for two reasons.

1) There is no personality at the top of a ticket to attack nationally. 435 House races, 34 Senate races. Even if dirt on someone comes out in a state, people in other states will not pay attention to it in terms of voting.

2) Early voting. People have started to vote already. In my state within about a week 80% of the vote will already be in. It will be too late for an October surprise.

[Sognefjord]

14. It is an interesting theory, however, and something we ALWAYS need to watch out for.

[Kablooie]

15. This year's October surprise will be ...

Sean Connery commanding a Russian submarine.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

16. I invite you to consider the meaning of the word "surprise"... N.T.

[Capt. Obvious]

20. We kill Al Queda's number 2

[DFW]

21. Sort of, but it's not a surprise

Rove and the Kochs held back on their cash outlays to buy total media saturation for the last 3 weeks.

From all the desperate emails for money from Democrats around the country, I'd say it's having at least a perceived effect (although it looks like they gave up on the Michigan Senate seat and are ceding that one to us).