2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama leads Romney 53-41 in New Hampshire.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-up-big-in-new-hampshire.htmlyellowcanine
(35,699 posts)Never should have been there in the first place.
CTyankee
(63,903 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)on that list!
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)...so that they go on a fools errand. But you are right pa should be listed as lean dem and as it gets closer to election day it will go to likely dem. This all depends on the flow of the race.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I remember everyone making a big fuss over it in '04 - that Bush could upend Kerry there.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Gore won the state by 500,000 votes but Kerry won by 200,000 so there was a drop off. Obama won by over 600,000 votes. He will win between 400,000 and 600,000 this time around.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)That is so stupid. At worst it is a tossup. Ge won the state by 120,000 votes last time. Gore won it by 4000 and bush won it by 10,000 votes.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Iowa is at best swing, but likely a lean-Obama.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)If the vote is close nationwide the final result will be within 10,000 votes. Remember Obama won big in 2008, however all the local gains were wiped out in 2010. We lost both house seats and both houses of the legislature. If Obama does better in the polls he will win the state by a larger margin. Romney has made clear he will play in NH.
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)CBS has Romney up by 2 by polling his old neighbors.