Election Dashboard....Four Weeks To Go and Here is Where it All Stands

[tgards79]

Four weeks to go and here it where it stands...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/10/election-2014-dashboard-new-weekly.html

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. Methodology? Model Assumptions? eom.

[tgards79]

6. In general...

For Senate and Govs, I use the last five non-partisan polls in the last month only. For House, I average the ratings of Cook, Sabato, Daily Kos, RCP and Rothenburg. Plus I have my own regression. Strong track record, see the blog!

[1StrongBlackMan]

7. Thanks ...

I'm a kind'a relent numbers nerd (if I don't say so, myself) and am always interested in modeling/methodology.

The only "concern" in have with meta-analysis is it relies on the accuracy of the individual poll's modeling (i.e., weighting). And I suspect (or, better, as a pure partisan ... hope) that the polling models will be way off, with respect to turn-out ... particularly, African-American.

[Kalidurga]

2. Some people have a weird way of GOTV

But, if it works for you then go you!!!

[tgards79]

3. If the Dems...

...and I am one of them, can't get excited enough to GOTV with potentially losing the Senate, two more House seats, and 14 governor races that are toss-ups....

[Kalidurga]

4. Yep

we should vote like every contest is a potential loss even if our candidate is 10 points ahead.

[tgards79]

5. Not just vote...get others too...

At this point, it would be a huge story if the Dems simply held the Senate, lost no more House seats and picked up at state house or two. Let's go for it!