Nate Silver: Senate Update: What’s The Matter With South Dakota?
Last month, the battle for Senate control was shaken up when the Democrat Chad Taylor dropped out of the race in Kansas, clearing way for a contest between the center-left independent Greg Orman and the unpopular Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. Although Orman, who has led or tied Roberts in all subsequent polls, is not certain to caucus with Democrats even if he wins the race, this is nevertheless a major burden for the GOP. Were Republicans sure winners in Kansas, their chances of keeping the Senate would be 66 percent — instead of 56.5 percent, as it is in Tuesday’s FiveThirtyEight forecast. That’s the difference between being clearly favored and having odds just barely better than a coin flip.
But could Republicans have another problem on their hands — in another prairie state?
South Dakota’s senate race also features an independent candidate: Larry Pressler, the former three-term Republican Senator. In contrast to Orman, who had run a slick campaign even before he’d begun to receive national media attention, Pressler’s bid seemed more quixotic. He’d raised only $107,000 through June 30, has a website that looks more like a personal blog, and had even joked that he “might demand a recount” if he won.
Three-way races are nevertheless quite volatile. So our forecast model had been accounting for some possibility that Pressler could give the frontrunner, the former Republican Gov. Mike Rounds, some trouble — either by winning the race himself or by splitting the vote enough to throw the contest to Democrat Rick Weiland. When it launched last month, the FiveThirtyEight forecast had given Rounds a 86 percent chance of winning — reasonably good, but not quite a sure thing.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-whats-the-matter-with-south-dakota/
= new reply since forum marked as read
which is Sam's site. http://election.princeton.edu/
Sometimes I mistype the site as Princeton Education Forum because Sam does a lot of "educating." 
Huh? 
