Gardner Opens Up A Big Lead In Key Colorado Senate Race

[a kennedy]

Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO) has opened up an seven-point lead over Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO), according to a new Suffolk University poll.

The poll found Gardner leading 46 percent to 39 percent among likely voters. Back in mid-September, Suffolk gave Gardner just a one-point advantage, 43 percent to 42 percent.

It is the biggest lead that Gardner has seen over the last month, during which time early voting has already started; Fox News and Quinnipiac University had shown him up by six points earlier in October.

The Suffolk University poll, conducted Oct. 18 to 21, surveyed 500 likely voters. Its margin of error is 4.4 points.

According to TPM's PollTracker average, Udall currently holds a slight edge, 46.1 percent to 46 percent.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/colorado-senate-race-suffolk-university-oct-22

D*mn.

[Robbins]

1. Suffolk

Is pollster who said back In 2012 they were going to stop polling NC,virginia,and florida because there was no way Obama could win
there.He won 2 of 3.I don't take them seriously.

Can I buy garner ahead.Yeah but not by this much.

[a kennedy]

2. Ok, well that's good to know.....

thanks.

[bigdarryl]

3. I've seen other polls showing Udall ahead at this point

It's all about get out the vote

[Autumn]

4. I can't believe that. Gardner is a fucking idiot and it shows everytime he opens his mouth

[DavidDvorkin]

6. His father sells tractors!

He smiles all the time!

He has Colorado values!

[Autumn]

8. Yeah and his values came in handy when when he played football...

Oops, what's that you say? He never played football? One of those Reagan moments there.

[DavidDvorkin]

9. He watched a movie in which Reagan didn't play football

Close enough.

I hate those made-up "values". What are Colorado values? How do they differ from values in other states? Stupid catchwords and buzz phrases. What's even worse is that they work.

[Mass]

5. Suffolk does not have a great record outside of MA.

This said, it is clear that Udall is up for a rough ride (way too close for comfort), but this reliance on every individual poll is beyond ridiculous.

[evemac]

7. I just turned in my ballot this morning

LOVE living in Boulder with all the Udall signs.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

10. The poll tracker

Shows Gardner up by 3 points. Probably because of that one poll; those taken over the next week are going to be telling. Could be a false flag, could be that Colorado has broken definitively for Gardner.

[demwing]

11. What happened to Udall's support?

Just a month ago he was well ahead (and had been so all year). What the hell changed? Can anyone in Colorado explain?

[FBaggins]

12. I doubt that it's changed much

This isn't entiely unexpected. He was polling (with some variability of course) in the mid-40s for most of the year (I assume that this poll and the most recent Fox & Quinnipiac polls are parial outlying datapoints).

A well-known incumbent polling in the mid 40s is usually in serious trouble (assuming a substanially 2-way race). Undecided's are somewhat more likely to break toward the challenger as the election nears unless the incumbent is able to drive up the challenger's negatives.