"538 Flashback": What We Can Learn From Eric Cantor Defeat

[tomm2thumbs]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-can-learn-from-eric-cantors-defeat/

In truth, when an election result hits “10 on the political Richter scale” of shock value, there usually isn’t just one reason for the outcome, but lots of them acting in concert. While surveying the wreckage, Cantor adviser John Murray acknowledged his boss’s loss amounted to “death by a thousand cuts.” None of these reasons alone would be sufficient to cause an upset, and some of them aren’t neatly quantifiable. But there are plenty of ways to dissect what happened in Virginia’s 7th district, as well as some lessons we political forecasters would be wise to keep in mind in the future. <snip>

The conventional wisdom pointing to Cantor’s safety was largely generated by one poll taken for the majority leader’s campaign by pollster John McLaughlin in late May showing Cantor leading Brat 62 percent to 28 percent. Those of us who have tracked McLaughlin’s results in House races have come to digest his data with several grains of salt. But could a pollster really be 45 points off the mark two weeks out? It strains credulity. Brat clearly owned momentum over the last fortnight, but most GOP operatives now blame McLaughlin’s poor sampling for his misleading numbers. Nonetheless, the poll had the effect of “waving off” both Cantor allies and the press from the race.

_____________


We shall know it as the Eric Cantor Effect... or 'a Majority Leader gets taken to the woodshed...' -- when polls get it SO wrong, so clearly and so definitively... and even the internals are wildy optimistic in the wrong direction.

Yes, it happens. It merely takes voting. Plain and simple.

[Major Hogwash]

1. And the best part was . . no one saw it coming!

Especially Eric Cantor!!!!!!!!!!

[tomm2thumbs]

2. Having not to see his mug around any longer with a wagging tongue to match is truly a blessing

Hopefully tortoise-head gets replaced next.

[underpants]

3. Good article but he missed the two main reasons

1. The gerrymander ferociously red areas into his district assuming he could absorb them with his middle class fear-change western Henrico base. These RED areas turned out huge for Not-Cantor (didn't matter who the Not-Cantor was).

2. Likewise Dems voted against Cantor. It was an open primary so people like me, who never miss a chance to vote against Cantor, made sure to pop in - we don't wait in voting lines in western Henrico. I saw a really detailed statistical analysis (Kos I think) in which they showed that Brat's victory by 7,000 votes was equal to 5% of the votes for Obama in the 7th in 2012 -- 1 in 20 Obama voters.

This writer thinks the Richmond Times-Disgrace has good political reporting?

[tomm2thumbs]

4. Similar to what happened in Harry Reid's district

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/03/harry-reid-sharron-angle_n_765995.html

On a day of Republican revival in Congress, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was the spoiler. Nevada's embattled senator capped a stunning political comeback Tuesday, soundly defeating tea party champion Sharron Angle and helping keep the Senate in Democratic control.

Marked as one of the most vulnerable incumbents, the unpopular Reid paired a relentless TV ad campaign with a formidable turnout machine to win a fifth term, defeating Angle by 6 points. He avoided the indignity of becoming the first Senate majority leader to lose re-election in 58 years. "I've run in some tough elections no one thought I could win," Reid told cheering supporters at a casino on the Las Vegas Strip. "We are proof that a test is tough only if you're not tough."

[savalez]

6. ...

"the unpopular Reid"

He got reelected. Sounds like he was "popular" to me.

[Ykcutnek]

7. McConnell is next.

You heard it here first.

[tomm2thumbs]

8. from your lips to tomorrow's headlines!