Bernie Sanders Breaks 20% in a National Poll for the First Time; Gaining Support Across Demographics

[Le Taz Hot]

Yougov has a new national democratic primary poll just out (full PDF results), showing Bernie Sanders breaking 20% for the first time.

Nationally, Bernie is at 25% in a multi-candidate matchup, and at 32% against Clinton alone. What's more, as we will see below, the poll provides evidence indicating that Bernie's appeal is not confined just to white liberals, as some have argued. There is also evidence that much of Hillary's current lead may simply be due to name recognition, and so as more people learn who Bernie is, he still has plenty of room to grow his support.

In a general matchup, including not only Sanders and Clinton, but also other candidates (and potential candidates), the results are:

Hillary Clinton 43%
Bernie Sanders 25%
Joe Biden 12%
Jim Webb 4%
Lincoln Chafee 1%
Other 5%
No Preference 11%
531 respondents
(PDF, see page 97 results)
There are some problems with this question. In particular, Joe Biden hasn't even announced his candidacy, and there is no indication that he is running.

<more>

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/07/10/1400974/-Bernie-Sanders-Breaks-20-in-a-National-Poll-for-the-First-Time-Gaining-Support-Across-Demographics

[morningfog]

1. 25% is not bad at all for 7 months out and before any debates against the Clinton Machine.

[questionseverything]

11. look at page 99

head to head match up

clinton 51

sanders 32

i still say national polls mean nothing but this is encouraging

[roguevalley]

115. this is more significant than hillary because this is word of mouth. Consider what it might do if he

had the visibility of Hillary? He is burning the road up considering he has done this with word of mouth.

[questionseverything]

119. yes i agree, i had just posted we need debates

national exposure

the dnc is really screwing up by not scheduling them...they are gonna let the repubs get the free airtime

we had 4 by this time in 07

[arely staircase]

176. you think the gop debates are going to help the gop? i don't. nt

[questionseverything]

180. it is a gamble i am not willing to take

i never thought illinois would have a repub gov and a repub senator...but we do


are you saying democrats do not deserve debates?

[arely staircase]

182. we should. i am for lots of them

I think our debates help us because we have a manageable number of serious, intelligent candidates. the other side has like 20 loons and a couple of crooks.

[questionseverything]

184. dems debating each other prepares the eventual candidate for

the repubs

[arely staircase]

185. absolutely

and though I am for hrc, I don't want anyone coronated I look forward to the dem debates.the gopers too, but for entertainment rather than enlightenment

[Betty Karlson]

190. No, he is BERNING the road. Respect the meme!

[leveymg]

105. I think that once Sanders gets over the "not viable" hump his popularity will soar.

Clinton's negatives continue to climb, so the latent Anyone But Hillary vote is just ready to emerge.

[questionseverything]

116. we need debates

we had 4 by this time in 07

bernie will soar after that national exposure...which i guess is why the dnc has not scheduled them

[leveymg]

121. If it helps Hillary, the DNC will move other states ahead or onto the same dates as NH and Iowa.

Anything to insure she doesn't have to face any potential game changers. She's not a very energetic or resilient candidate, particularly when she has to run against a determined opponent.

[arely staircase]

186. once she got going she was a great candidate in 08

Obama was just better.

[sabrina 1]

200. I did not think she was a great candidate in 08. Which is why I supported Obama.

He delivered a progressive message during the campaign, she otoh, was 'cautious' about issues that she should have been passionate about.

Same thing this time. Bernie is passionate, and even better, he has a long, long record to prove it is not just Campaign Rhetoric, which is why he continues to rise in the polls as more and more people get to know him.

We did not have that record with Obama and by the end of the campaign, there were some signs that maybe he might not stick to many of the promises made, however he had one major advantage in that race, he opposed the Iraq War. That is a winning issue and even more so now, for any Democratic candidate.

[TheNutcracker]

137. where is O'Malley? He's announced and Biden has not.

I support Bernie. But the poll is scewed.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. I think Biden will not run

So he will be removed soon. That is when it will become really interesting

[swilton]

43. That's also how I see it!

[nadinbrzezinski]

77. Personally I see a split

[BlueEye]

94. A good deal of Biden's "support" is probably from...

establishment Dems, of which I see at least 2/3 going to Hillary, if not more. Biden historically has a lot of friends on Wall Street, not sure if those folks will throw their weight behind Bernie.

[lostnfound]

3. Why the heck DO they keep including Biden?

Do they know something we don't, or are they just trying to tilt the outcome??

[Le Taz Hot]

6. Good point. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure most Biden supporters

will transfer to Hillary since there's not much difference between them in terms of the political spectrum. They're both pretty Centrist.

As to your question, I think the "experts" are still expecting him to run.

[lostnfound]

18. I'm not so sure. I'd guess a third of them would go for Bernie

You're right that's Biden is a centrist.
But if people want a centrist, and they are already choosing Biden over Hillary, it could be because there's something steering them away from Hillary. Like not wanting the presidency to be split between two families.

Also there's something about Biden - maybe his personal history - that makes him seem deeply rooted or solid in his values. The media talks about trust being an issue for the Clintons, but they don't say that about Biden. That's why I think a segment of those voters might end up going for Bernie.

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic, though, because I'd like to see some major shift in political discourse in this country.

[Le Taz Hot]

20. All very good points I hadn't considered.

I had already written off Bernie getting Biden supporters but now I'm not so sure.

[PoliticAverse]

31. Biden would get a percentage of the "not Clinton" support that is currently going to Sanders. n/t

[Springslips]

72. Yep

Some of the Biden vote is anti-Clinton factions picking the second most known hame.

[George II]

181. YEs, a VERY small percentage.

[woodsprite]

45. This Biden supporter is firmly behind Bernie.

The truth is - Biden, Bernie, Hillary - whomever gets the Dem nomination is whom I'm voting for in the general.

Already had to reply to a Repub acquaintance of mine who dare said something about the age and competence of any of the Dem candidates (touted the younger stronger Repub members of the clown car). I threw Jebby's words back at them re: working more hours and until at least 70yrs. old.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

78. The data suggests Clinton does better when Biden isn't included in the polls

The data suggests Clinton does better when Biden isn't included in the polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls

[demwing]

138. Not exactly...Clinton gains 19% - Bernie gains 28%

without Biden, Bernie does significantly better.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

140. Please cite the results fdrom the polls with HRC, JB, and BS

and the polls with just BS and HRC.


Here's the link:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls


Thank you in advance:

[demwing]

154. We are discussing the poll in the OP

in this poll, Clinton gains 19% without Biden (51/43 = 1.186) and Bernie gains 28% (32/25 = 1.28).

If you don't want to discuss this poll, then please start a thread of your own, where you'll have a better chance of dictating the topic.

Thank you in advance...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

156. Here are the unskewed numbers from the poll that was posted at Daily Kos ...

Here are the unskewed numbers from the poll that was posted at Daily Kos that was cited by the original poster:









https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/07/09/democrats-sanders-moving/


You're welcome, sir or madame.

[demwing]

159. One man's "unskewed" is another man's "skewed"

please don't make me repeat myself, it's rude.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

160. Did I did I or did I not post the headline (unskewed results) from the poll?

It is not rude to point out that someone's work product in this case , yougov, has been misinterpreted


And it's a rude of you to accuse me of being rude when I haven't been.


Now, if I accused the original poster of being this gentleman:





that would be rude but I didn't and wouldn't.

[demwing]

194. Who is skewing whom here?

From the YouGov polling data PDF:/b]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ar54q9h39k/econTabReport.pdf


Democratic Primary, Full Field (page 97):



Democratic Primary, Bernie v. Hillary (page 99):



Look like YOU are skewing with the data...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

195. Sir, you are conflating Democrats and independents

You are mixing up Democrats and Independents and putting them in one three bean salad when there is no evidence that all Independents will actually vote in a Democratic primary or that they actually can because all caucuses and many Democratic primaries are closed to non-Democrats.

This is from the pollster's own description of their own poll

Sanders appears to be stronger with those who call themselves independents than he is with Democrats. He runs even with Clinton among independents who are registered to vote (although many of them may not participate in Democratic nominating contests),

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/07/09/democrats-sanders-moving/

And there is also the problem that many primaries are closed including delegate rich California, New York, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, (registered party members only can vote)

https://grassrootsidgop.wordpress.com/list-of-states-with-open-and-closed-primaries/

[Trajan]

178. You went there ..

You are presenting unskewed polls now?

Hah ... That went VERY well last election cycle .. oh yeah baby!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

183. I presented the numbers (unskewed) as they appeared on yougov's website

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/07/09/democrats-sanders-moving/

We are playing semantics games which is intellectually dishonest.

That corpulent clown, Dean Chambers, didn't like the poll results in 012 so he manipulated (skewed) the pollster's data to get the results he wanted which of course were embarrassingly wrong. That is what was being done in the current instance. I was just being diplomatic but I don't like having my veracity challenged.

[snpsmom]

173. I love Joe

and would have a hard choice to make if he declared. But my choice would be between him and Bernie.

[PatrynXX]

23. Maybe.

but Mitt Romney is more of a centrist than Hillary. let alone Jeb. Bernie however is a true Democrat.

[swilton]

46. Yes, but if that were the case

why aren't they there now?

[Buns_of_Fire]

68. Luv ya, Joe. But shit or get off the pot.

Or, in more genteel terms, lead, follow, or get out of the way.

[arely staircase]

155. I would think (hope) you are right since I am for HRC, but then really

who are the Biden supporters? what if they all went to Jim Webb. who knows? I do wish they would leave Biden out since he isn't running.

[PoliticAverse]

28. It was rumored about a week ago Biden was planning to enter the race. Not sure what his timeframe

would be in doing so.

[NorthCarolina]

113. He helps them to achieve the poll results they are looking for. eom

[Cali_Democrat]

4. #FeelTheBern

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Why did Dan Tex post this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251435372

[artislife]

150. I don't dispute your post

...at all, but I do think Bernie has more opportunity to change minds. One thing for sure, most people feel the know H and have a set opinion. I don't see her adding a significant new number of voters. So the message of opponents will fall where they may. And I hope people listen to Bernie.

I am hopeful to see a significant change by November.

[ablamj]

161. why did Dan Tex post this?

I don't know. Perhaps you should ask Dan Tex...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

163. We just finished dinner together and he told me why.

epm

[ablamj]

165. if you knew

Why did you ask?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

166. Check the time stamp. That was before we dined.

eom

[ablamj]

167. still don't understand

Why you would ask it here if you were going to be able to ask him yourself. Very strange

[DemocratSinceBirth]

168. He called me after my post and said we could discuss it in person

Dan and I go back decades.

[ablamj]

170. he could have posted the reason here

Enquiring minds want to know...

[BrotherIvan]

7. For those who say he can't win the general

Sanders appears to be stronger with those who call themselves independents than he is with Democrats. He runs even with Clinton among independents who are registered to vote (although many of them may not participate in Democratic nominating contests), whether the question includes all the potential candidates or is just limited to Sanders and Clinton. And independents are less likely to have an unfavorable view of Sanders than they are to have an unfavorable view of Clinton.

Registered voter percentages

[Le Taz Hot]

8. There are so many elements to this that the "experts"

aren't talking about, at least publically. These polls that are posted day after day reflecting "among Democratic voters, . . ." doesn't begin to give an accurate picture. One of the important elements of getting Bernie the nomination, then the General is crossover appeal. The MSM seems to be the last to know about this. It's not only Independents but it's Republicans, it's the disenfranchised who don't usually vote, and many others are difficult to factor in at this early date but they're going to be a MAJOR factor.

[BrotherIvan]

13. As I have said since the question of his ability to win the general came up

ANY Democrat can beat ANY Republican based on basic electoral math. But people are still frightened by the MSM into thinking a Republican with a war chest can win. They can't without an October Surprise )which I would not put past them.)

If Bernie can beat the most formidable opponent in the entire race, Hillary Clinton, and is solid with Independents it's going to be a clear win. The meme that "he can't win because he's a socialist" is the same lie we heard in 2008 that "this is a racist country and a black man can't win." Guess who perpetuated that idea?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12801719

[jeff47]

99. "Voters" should always ben treated as a warning sign this early.

What it means is they're adjusting the polling results based on their guess about who will actually show up to vote. That guess is based on past elections, and will trend more conservative than Democrats as a whole (Conservative Democrats vote more reliably).

One of the main way Sanders could win is by getting people who do not normally vote to actually get to the polls. Since they are effectively not being counted by "voter" polls, the results of the poll would underestimate Sanders support.

On the flip side, excitement could wane and those voters could stay home anyway, thus overestimating Sanders support. That's more or less what happened to Dean in Iowa in 2004. He had lots of excitement from people who didn't bother to show up.

This early, it is extremely difficult to create a good guess about who will actually show up at the elections. So any poll with "voters" is inherently making a pretty wild guess. Closer to the elections, it will be far easier to gauge how likely various groups are to actually vote.

[questionseverything]

114. only 66% of these folks in the ops poll are registered

pg 96

[jeff47]

151. No, 66% of the people they asked. Then they weight responses based on their voter model.

So, conservative who has voted in every election since 1960? They get counted 4 times. Millennial who has sat out every election? They get counted 0.25 times.

(Numbers for illustrative purposes only. I don't know their voter model)

[questionseverything]

175. no ..of the 1000 people in this poll

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ar54q9h39k/econTabReport.pdf

page 96

66% are sure they are registered

poll is unweighted

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. We don't have to massage the numbers to envision how Madame Secretary would fare

We don't have to massage the numbers to envision how Madame Secretary would fare in a general election:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html


She is faring quite well.

[BrotherIvan]

12. You mean some polls good, some polls bad?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Please correct me if I am wrong...

Please correct me if I wrong but did you just argue that because Sanders does better among independents against Clinton then he does then he does among Democrats against Clinton that he would do better against Republicans than Clinton?

I am certain in your rebuttal you will provide me with data to buttress your claim.

Thank you in advance.

You mean some polls good, some polls bad?

Nah, I can live with these results, the poll the original poster cited, before someone massaged the statistics, ergo:

[peacebird]

24. Your own chart shows Hillary support softening and Bernie support increasing over time

With 7 months to go, if those trends continue Bernie will be right there even with Hillary well before the first votes are cast.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. This is one poll but I will submit it's meaningful

I trust the entire thirty five point lead will not dissipate in seven moths.

If we are not going to deconstruct polls , misrepresent the results, and massage the numbers, I could just as well argue that Barack Obama was down around fifteen points at this time in 2007 and the race ended in a virtual tie... Since Senator Sanders is now down thirty five points if he shows shows the same progress as Barack Obama he will be still be down twenty points next June.

[peacebird]

104. Hillary has been dropping in all polls by 3-5 points month over month, Bernie is climbing by more

Than that, close to doubling month over month. In 7 months at the trend your poll shows they will be a virtual tie

[DemocratSinceBirth]

106. Here is the Huffington Post Poll Of Polls:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


She is essentially in the same place as she was in January of 2013. Well she lost a point. She is losing 1/30th of a percent a month. At this rate she will be under fifty percent fifteen years after she concludes her second term as POTUS.

[peacebird]

107. Please, continue to believe what you wish.

We'll see how it plays out after the debates and when the votes start. My money is on Bernie surfing a tidal wave of populist support all the way to the White House!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

108. I admire your passion.

My beliefs are based on facts , reason, and evidence.

[peacebird]

110. So are mine. Have a nice day.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

111. You as well./nt

[dirtydickcheney]

122. She's not a good speaker and ....

if you take away the D next to her name her policies are pretty right-leaning.

Voted for the Iraq War - Check
supports the TPP - Check
Supports more H-1B Visas - Check
Sold Fracking to the World - Check
Supports the Patriot Act - Check

So if you take away the (D) why would you support someone like this or do policies matter?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

123. She's

She's

-pro choice
-pro amnesty
-pro glbtq rights
-pro paid leave
-pro increased minimum wage
-pro criminal justice reform
-pro gun control
-pro negotiation with Iran
-pro rapprochement with Cuba
-pro Social Security and Medicare as is.
-pro access to health care for all independent of ability to pay...



and her and her husband have demonstrated they can whup GOP ass on the biggest stage.


That's enough for this man who has been a Democrat so long he sucked on a Democratic teat.

[dirtydickcheney]

125. Some of these really matter....

some are just a ruse and none of them challenge Big Money.
The Republicans had the Presidency, the Supreme Court and Congress when GWB was president - did you see anything change with the abortion issue - I mean - they could have, right? But they didn't - because it's an issue that they use to manipulate people.


Show me exactly where she went hard against Big Money or the Status Quo.
None of the ones above touch that - ...maybe minimum wage ... but if you do believe (like I do) that increasing the minimum wage actually helps the economy (and benefits business) then that argument helps Big Money as well.

[dirtydickcheney]

126. Her husband -

isn't he the guy that saw a massive spike in incarceration when he was President???

Is she pro-drug legalization? Haven't heard that speech if she is.

[1StrongBlackMan]

129. You mean, because he signed the billS that Bernie voted for? n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

148. Her husband is also the man

Her husband is also the man who presided over the lowest level of poverty and unemployment among Latinos and African Americans in a generation and the highest level of African American home ownership in the history of our nation.

[1StrongBlackMan]

128. And, Oh Yeah ... Regarding her speaking ability ...

As SoS, it is a required skill set to speak in a manner in which it will be received.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

131. She's at worst an average public speaker by any objective metric

She's at worst an average public speaker by any objective metric and she exhibits a command of the issues and an air of authority to any dispassionate observer.


I don't know if Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and David Cameron were fond of her but I am confident they saw her as their equal.

[1StrongBlackMan]

132. Their equal and quite convincing. n/t

[dirtydickcheney]

136. Show me where people get fired up about Hillary - she doesnt' have a WOW! factor at all.

And again (and most importantly)- show me where she took on Big Money or the Status Quo?

Because I have my money on her challenging those two very important things exactly zero.

And so much so that I bet a friend she wouldn't be the Democratic Nominee BEFORE Bernie even got in the race.

She's just not engaging and is a Big Money sellout (just IMHO)....those aren't things that sound good for any candidate. Especially one who needs the Left to get elected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

141. I'm fired up...

I actually have a tattoo of Madame Secretary on my back. How's that for being fired up?

And so much so that I bet a friend she wouldn't be the Democratic Nominee BEFORE Bernie even got in the

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination


I hope you got them 10-1 odds...


If you can work out the logistics I will be more than happy to take some of your money but even odds only.

[dirtydickcheney]

145. I appreciate the response.

Now show me where she took on Big Money and the Status Quo.

Please.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

149. Here's the issues that are dear to me in order.

Here's the issues that are dear to me in order.



-pro amnesty
-pro glbtq rights
-pro access to health care for all independent of ability to pay...
-pro increased minimum wage
-pro criminal justice reform
-pro paid leave
-pro gun control
-pro amnesty
-pro negotiation with Iran
-pro rapprochement with Cuba
-pro Social Security and Medicare as is.

I don't run around with my hair on fire braying about banksters, corporatists, and one percenters and I doubt most Americans do.

[dirtydickcheney]

157. You'd be wrong...

I don't run around with my hair on fire braying about banksters, corporatists, and one percenters and I doubt most Americans do.

Actually the reason Bernie Sanders is getting such enormous crowds is exactly because his hair is on fire about these things and that it resonates with the people in his audience. And I'm quite certain his audiences will continue to grow as he discusses these things.

And I just saw something that standing up against Banksters, Corporatists and 1%'ers is something that 60% of Republicans were in favor of.

And Hillary is soooo the candidate in the back-pocket of just those very same people.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

158. I am sure everybody but the banksters dislike the banksters.

I am sure everybody but the banksters dislike the banksters. That wasn't my point. My point is it's not an organizing principle in most folks lives.

[dirtydickcheney]

146. I got 1-1 odds.

It doesn't take a genius to see she's not warm-and-fuzzy.

Her husband was though - that does carry clout.

Show me that tattoo!

[INdemo]

192. Hillary is a corporacrat so is that good enough or

is that close enough to being a Democrat according to your analysis?

Without the support of Wall St and the corporate mafia Hillary Clinton would/could not be running for President.
We expect Republicans to get their funding from Wall St sources but for a Democrat?
Obama was heavily funded by Wall St and the corporate mafia and take a close look at what we got with him,
Corporate and Wall St pay back Right?

Having a "D" in front of ones name does not make them a real "Democrat".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

193. If President Obama and I were on a sinking ship together and there was one life preserver left

If President Obama and I were on a sinking ship together and there was one life preserver left I would let him have it without reservation .

He is a good and decent man and has been a transformational and consequential president. He the is the fulfillment of the dreams of Abraham Lincoln, Frederick Douglass, Lyndon Johnson, and Martin Luther King, Jr. I say god bless Barack Obama.

[INdemo]

198. President Obama in my opinion

as he has proven so many times, is a Wall St./Corporate puppet.

Oh and about the life preserver thing..well you wouldn't have a choice because Obama would just take it from you and leave you to 'sink with the ship" just as he has done with so many Americans.
He pushed for the TARP funding for banks but for those that lost everything, retirement accounts, and life savings, well he kind of forgot about those Americans when the checks were being handed out to the banks

So do you want to rethink your comparisons?

When you compare him to Martin Luther King,Jr and LBJ well they just rolled over in their grave.

Take a look at all the Wall St/corporate puppets that he appointed and have served in his cabinet. That alone is enough to make it laughable when you include Barrack Obama and LBJ in the same sentence.

Oh and by the way I voted for Obama twice.

The first time I actually believed his Bull Shit.

The second time well it was either the guy that would no doubt push for a national right to work law and destroy SS and Medicare and the fact that I have never voted for a Republican or at least didn't think I did at the time. With Obama I knew he was a corporacrat, so it was just the lesser of two evils.

[BeanMusical]

202. Totally agree with you.

And frankly that post is a good example of fanaticism. I couldn't believe what I was reading.

[1StrongBlackMan]

25. Because ...

because Sanders does better among independents against Clinton then he does then he does among Democrats against Clinton that he would do better against Republicans than Clinton

Because republicans are independents, right?

[BrotherIvan]

90. Because arithmetic

[DemocratSinceBirth]

91. The polling of Hillary v the Republicans does the arithmetic for you.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html


I am loathe to unskew polls lest I end up like this forlorn gentleman;

[BrotherIvan]

92. Any Democrat can beat any Republican

Because of electoral math...and arithmetic.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

97. Can you cite data and not opinion that any Democrat can beat any Republican for president

Barack Obama won Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia by 5% or less. These states account for 89 Electoral College Votes. If they flipped Romney wins 297-241


Can you cite data and not opinion that any Democrat can beat any Republican for president, the theory of the Blue Wall and demographic shifts notwithstanding. The theory is predicated on two roughly equally funded candidates from the mainstream of their parties...

Thank you in advance.


To paraphrase Lennox Lewis you are going to need more than some pithy responses and internet swag to best DemocratSinceBirth.

[BrotherIvan]

109. backs away slowly...

[BeanMusical]

169. You're referring to yourself in the third person?

Interesting, Julius Cesar was doing that as well. Maybe you were him in a past life?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

171. You know who else referred to himself in the third person?

[BeanMusical]

172. You really have a distorted image of yourself.

Big ego. Old Jules was also a bit of a megalomaniac so I stick with my reincarnation theory.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

174. Are you Dr. Ablow?

He routinely puts people he never met on the proverbial "couch."

Seeing myself in the third person is a useful tool in which to measure my progress as a human being.

[JDPriestly]

17. So what Sanders needs is a massive voter re-registration campaign to re-register

the independents who support him as Democrats. That is how he can win the Democratic nomination.

We need to tell Independents who support Bernie that they need to re-register now if they are to have the choice they want in November 2016.

ALL Bernie supporters need to go to their nearest voter registration office, take a class if available, on how to register voters, order some forms and get started. California allows people to register on line, but I have not met anyone who successfully did it. Could just be that the people who talked to me about it met me when I was registering voters and happened to be the people who could not register on-line.

This needs to be done early. Every voter needs to understand the importance of re-registering if he/she moves just like he/she would change the address on his/her drivers' license. (Some states, by the way, allow voters to register to vote when they apply for a drivers' license.)

Registering people to vote may seem simple, but it is best to take a course if available. You need to know the requirements in your specific state, which lines on the form are mandatory, which not.

[1StrongBlackMan]

41. Be careful of what you ask for ...

the re-registration from Independent to ____, is heavily republican



The Independent Identification gain is due, primarily, to a shift away from republicanism.

[cascadiance]

55. This is tactical... Bernie wasn't running for president in those years...

It probably served Republicans more who identified with Libertarians or other more right wing parties to sign up as Republicans then to help those fringe candidates in the Republican primaries where there were and still are a lot more candidates.

I think this time around though, many Greens and other independents who have left the Democratic Party when disaffected by the corporatist takeover by the DLC/Third Way types, will have a good reason to tactically register as Democrats as needed in their states to help them vote in the primaries for Bernie.

And in a state like California or Washington now with top two primaries, they won't need to reregister with more open primaries there. Here in Oregon, since we voted that down (which I am thankful for for other reasons), we will need to get independents registered as Democrats for them to vote for Bernie in the primaries.

[1StrongBlackMan]

62. That's just it ...

I think this time around though, many Greens and other independents who have left the Democratic Party when disaffected by the corporatist takeover by the DLC/Third Way types, will have a good reason to tactically register as Democrats as needed in their states to help them vote in the primaries for Bernie.

Please link to a source indicating some (significant) movement out of the Democratic Party.

[cascadiance]

79. Note what's happened to both Republicans and Democrats up until recent times here in Oregon...

http://oregoncatalyst.com/31059-oregon-voters-leaving-dem-gop-parties.html





Note that the article mentions back in 1974 that 96% of the voters were registered as Democrats or Republicans then. Quite a shift since then.

There are spikes of registered voters, especially for Democrats right before presidential elections. We'll probably see the same spike this time around I'm guessing. It will be interesting to see if independents might move to Democrats, since this data is measuring voter registrations prior to Bernie announcing he's running in the Democratic Primary.

Note how in the detailed chart, Democrats have lost more voters than any other entity there.

[1StrongBlackMan]

88. Okay. n/t

[JDPriestly]

118. My neighbors. I'm in California. A lot of liberal Californians (who are much more liberal

perhaps than liberals in other states) have joined various third parties. Bernie can win them back I think. I could be wrong, but I think so. Some have changed to Independent in other states. In California they have moved to third parties. Now that the LGBT marriage issue has been decided in favor of LGBTs, I think some disillusioned Democrats who are LGBT will re-register as Democrats. That's what they really are anyway.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

75. We are making inferences from and massaging this poll to where it no longer makes sense...

For instance the same question is asked about the Republican field and includes Republicans and Independents.

I'm not going to assume every Independent is going to vote for Sanders in those primaries that are open when Independents have been splitting their votes since time immemorial.

[JDPriestly]

120. Register voters in geographical areas or sections of your city or town in which likely

Democrats and liberals live. That is one of the most important things you do in a voter registration campaign. I would not go into an area with lost of Republicans unless I could go to a location that is likely to appeal more to Democrats.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

124. I live in Brad Sherman's district...It's very Democratic./nt

[JDPriestly]

143. Great. For the 2016 election, we need to register every Democrat we can. Thanks.

[fed-up]

197. My brother suggested that we concentrate registering voters in low income, minority neighborhoods-

That we work apartment complexes, mobile home parks, senior and student housing areas etc.

To get the most bang for our time, by working the areas where housing is denser we can register (and reregister) more people in a shorter period of time.

He said don't waste time sitting outside a grocery store, but to go directly to where there are large concentrations of people that are likely to not be registered.

That we also do the same when it is time to Get Out the Vote.

He also said to check and make sure that student financial aid will not be affected by where students register, that can vary by state.

I am in Northern California in a college town with something like 29% Decline to state. We also have members of our Bernie group that have already reregistered as Dems.

[JDPriestly]

117. Even in California it is important to re-register voters as Democrats.

We need to encourage people to identify with the Democratic Party and vote Democratic, not for third parties. That is one reason I am supporting Bernie. I think a lot of voters who became disillusioned with the Democratic Party and chipped off to support the Peace and Freedom and Green parties will come back to the Democratic Party if we nominate a real, old-fashioned Democrat like Bernie Sanders for the presidency.

[qazplm]

74. but the problem is

those shifters will still probably vote republican or third party, not democrat...just like shifters from the democratic party will usually still vote either democratic or third party.

[cascadiance]

84. But the difference is that FOR ONCE they have more of an independent running as a Democrat...

... that many of them will like because he represents a return to the values they left the Democratic Party for. If they see they can make a difference by getting him nominated over Hillary, many of them will tactically register as Democrats. Now depending on what happens in the election and how many corporate Democrats win out over newer progressive Democrats in primaries, they might go back to being independent voters later, but they will in effect be "Democrats" in their votes in the primaries. We won't have had any good historical context to measure this by in terms of an independent running as a Democrat. Now some can argue that many Tea Party Republicans were in effect doing the same thing and trying to draw back in ex-Republicans in to the Republican Party to nominate someone that more closely identifies with their values too, but I don't think we've seen this with Democrats until now on a national scale.

[1StrongBlackMan]

85. Agreed. The person I was responding to seemed to think ...

the increase in Independent Registration was due to some great defection from the Democratic Party (there hasn't been) and those identifying as Independent are disaffected Democrats, likely to vote overwhelmingly for Sanders (also, no evidence to support the assertion).

[cascadiance]

127. I showed a graph where percentage-wise and in numbers more voters have left the Democrats in Oregon.

... than the Republicans or other parties, while the independent voters have risen. There's no evidence that more of these independents are former Republicans either. I would guess that many of these independents have already rejoined the Republicans or stayed in there to vote for the Tea Party elements of it. Democrats at this point up until Bernie, haven't really had an "outside party presence" like the Tea Party in their elections yet. I am also speculating that many of these are new younger voters who are turned off by both of the major parties and start as independents because they are fed up with being the focal point of getting dumped on, whether it is student loan debt, being told that and thinking that social security is likely going to go away by the time they get old enough for it, and the jobs they get still sucking compared to what we got earlier.

They are not Republicans for a reason. They are not Democrats for a reason. They are fed up with the system. They've now got a situation that they haven't had before. Where someone as an independent who himself is running in one of the elections. We don't know if independents will come in droves for him. And yet we don't know that they won't either! I think it isn't wrong to speculate that there's a greater chance of this happening than a lot of independents becoming Democrats or Republicans to vote for a seasoned member of one of those two parties. As inaccurate as the polls were at this stage of last election, and this being a new wrinkle that could affect them radically even more basically say that these polls are still wild speculation, and to say that Hillary has it wrapped up now is just silly.

[1StrongBlackMan]

134. Okay. n/t

[Babel_17]

112. And register the youth vote, they desperately want jobs

And register the youth vote, they desperately want jobs, and a higher minimum wage.

And if the rebellious streak in college students doesn't favor Sanders, I don't know what will. A lot of nerds are Independents and are already talking of voting for Sanders as they fear losing jobs and wages to an expansion of Visa programs. They need to register as Democrats.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

133. The focus on registration should be on all the people

that never voted, gave up, think "they're all the same", etc. The people that have been left behind in this society, literally 10's of millions of non-voters, that could be mobilized with the right education+registration. If that happens, Bernie is truly UNStoppable!

[PADemD]

144. In PA, voter registration can be done

at Motor Vehicle Licensing Centers when having a photo taken for license renewal.

[hedda_foil]

188. That's true in all the state's ... Federal "motor voter" law from the Clinton era. nt

[PADemD]

191. So, how can we remind people to register for Bernie?

It would be a lot easier if there were automatic voter registration in every state.

[hedda_foil]

201. The tried and true, time tested way is to find your local Democratic organization and tell them

It may be called a Democratic Club or party. Tell them that you want to register people in your area to vote. And ask them what you need to do to get started. I'd join the group as well and possibly even go to their board meetings to figure out what's going on from the inside. They're more likely than not for Hillary, so you might o want to avoid telling them you want to register Bernie voters. However, there's probably a Bernie group coming together in your area. You can canvas for Bernie with them to set up and staff a booth at farmers markets, art shows, fairs,concerts, festivals, etc. If there isn't a Bernie group around, start one yourself. Put up a Facebook page for (your hometown or county) for Bernie land a similar Twitter handle and make sure you provide an easy way for them to contact you via a "hometown for Bernie" gmail or Hotmail email address.

Hope this helps.

[PADemD]

203. I've done all that, since 2007. I just wish voter registration would be automatic.

I hung out in a tent at a festival in the local park for each of three days in 2008. My neighbor asked if I even went home.

[Jefferson23]

69. Yep.

[NRaleighLiberal]

10. Change is not only good...it is essential!

Go Bernie!

[WillyT]

14. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[George II]

16. As of July 5, RealClearPolitics has it Clinton 62.8% Sanders 14.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Please see post 15...

What the poster at Daily Kos did was use statistics that included Democratic and independent voters.


Here's my response at Daily Kos:



The statistics the original poster is using is based on Democrats (and) independents. Since independents can't vote in Democratic primaries you can not use them as a foundation or premise to make inferences.

And in a head to head race from the same poll among only Democratic voters it's Clinton 64% Sanders 29%.

[peacebird]

26. Actually a number of states have open primaries.....

19 states have open primaries, in fact

[George II]

47. But in most (if not all) of those open primaries, a voter has to be registered with a Party....

...even if it's not the one in which his vote is.

In fact, I believe even Vermont requires a primary voter to be registered with a party (maybe it's New Hampshire) If that's the case Sanders may not even be able vote for himself in his state's primary.

[peacebird]

100. In Virginia you just have to be a registered voter. Rules for open or closed primaries:

Open primary:

In an open primary, voters of any affiliation may vote in the primaries of any party they choose. They cannot vote in more than one party's primary, although that prohibition can be difficult to enforce in the event a party has a primary runoff election. In many open primary states voters do not indicate partisan affiliation when they register to vote.
One area of contention in open primaries is "crossover" voting. It most often involves voters affiliated with one political party voting in the primary of another political party to influence the other party's nomination. For example, if a district routinely elects the Democratic nominee, Republican voters may attempt to swing the Democratic primary election toward a more conservative nominee. Occasionally, there also are concerns about sabotage, or "party crashing," which involves partisans strategically voting for a weaker candidate in another party's primary in the hope that the opposition party will nominate a candidate who is easier to defeat in the general election.
Closed primary:

In a closed primary, only voters registered with a given party can vote in that party's primary. States with closed primaries include party affiliation in voter registration so that the state has an official record of what party each voter is registered as.
Closed primaries preserve a party's freedom of association by better ensuring that only bona fide members of the party influence who that party nominates, but critics claim that closed primaries can exacerbate the radicalization that often occurs at the primary stage, when candidates must cater to their party's "base" rather than the political center.
In a few states, independent voters may register with a party on Election Day. However, they must remain registered with that party until they change their affiliation again. A handful of states even allow voters registered with one party to switch their registration at the polls to vote in another party's primary. In these rare instances, a closed primary can more closely resemble open or semi-closed primaries than the closed primaries of other states. Such states are still considered "closed," however, so be sure to refer to the "Remarks" column for your state to see if that is the case.
Semi-closed primary:

In a semi-closed primary, unaffiliated voters may choose which party primary to vote in, while voters registered with a party may only vote in that party's primary. Representing a middle ground between the exclusion of independent voters in a closed primary and the free-for-all of open primaries, the semi-closed, primary eliminates concerns about voters registered in other parties from "raiding" another party's nominating contest.

[jeff47]

102. Your belief is wrong.

Vermont does not register by party. At all. You walk in and say "I would like the Democratic ballot, please".

This has been explained to you repeatedly over the last month or so. You keep going back to "registered as a Democrat".

[Mnpaul]

147. neither does Minnesota

all I did was click a box that said "register to vote" when I renewed my DL.

[ablamj]

164. that's exactly what we say in GA too... n/t

[George II]

29. Good point and good information - that one arrived just as I was sending mine!

[still_one]

54. Actually some states have open primaries like California, where an independent can request either a

Democratic or republican ballot.

What gives me pause about this poll is they include Joe Biden, who hasn't announced, and didn't include O'Malley

I cannot believe more Democrats are aware of Chaffee, and not O'Malley

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. I didn't notice they excluded O'Malley.

I will just pay attention to the headline numbers (HRC -64% -BS 29%) before everybody massaged them to mean what they wanted them to mean. Maybe I am doing it at my peril but I doubt it.


The way I understand the subset is that HRC swamps Sanders among those that identify themselves as Democrats and is in a rough tie with him among independents.

IMHO, it is illogical to assume that independents are going to swarm those Democratic primaries that are open to fundamentally alter the results.

[still_one]

65. I assume it is under "other", but that only puts emphasis that they excluded him

[DemocratSinceBirth]

66. I elaborated before your responded.

[still_one]

81. Got it

[DemocratSinceBirth]

87. First of all there are open primaries and closed primaries

First of all there are open primaries and closed primaries and even if every indy voted in the Democratic primary according to the poll that is cited Sanders still loses by nearly twenty points.

[still_one]

89. I agree

[AtomicKitten]

19. Without the benefit of national exposure vis a vis debates, his rise in national polling is amazing.

It's the result of hard work on his part and the awesome strength of social media.

#FeelTheBern

[George II]

32. Without the benefit of national exposure? Have you been watching the news the last few weeks?

[cascadiance]

44. I think even though corporate media Bernies's not seen much in other media he is NATIONAL...

... and known by people over the years who watch or listen to Thom Hartmann. Yes that's a small subset and very liberal part of the population, but he has had a national media presence weekly for many years now, which gives him an advantage that some of the other candidates like O'Malley don't have.

Though O'Malley may be well known and well liked in his own state for his work there, for many in the rest of the country, they know Bernie a lot more than they known him. I'm one of those persons. I haven't had a lot of time to study O'Malley yet, even though I know I'm very much in synch with Bernie and don't feel the need to switch to someone else at this time.

I think that kind of familiarity facilitates grass roots organizations in other states a lot more. Even if most other state residents don't know Bernie much without his exposure in corporate media that they get a lot, those that do know him are able to organize more effectively now with things like DVDs of Bernie's FSTV appearances on Hartmann's show, etc. to help get the word out and build his organization in those other states that much faster. His strength there shouldn't be underestimated.

And the one thing that I think that really wins over independents and even many Republicans is that this guy is honest, consistent, and tries to listen and work for PEOPLE, instead of well-heeled lobbyists. I think that even appeals to some Republicans who have been used to being lied to, and many of them are getting just as tired of this as we are.

[AtomicKitten]

139. My doctor just moved to Baltimore to work for a

....nonprofit that services the homeless. She's young and progressive. I asked her if she would support HRC in the upcoming election. She made the scrunched up nose face that universally translates to, "Ugh." Yet she had no clue who Bernie is. I believe there is a substantial pool of voters like her. A pool that's got Bernie's name on it. Moving national polling this early is impressive. I think Bernie will do well.

[salib]

21. Bernie is now THE challenger in this race.

The complexion of this campaign will likely change once this sinks in.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

30. O'Malley didn't even rate? Just 'other'? oh well. nt

[George II]

34. That's the fallacy of these snapshot polls - they indicate results AT that time, not shortly after..

....or even before.

I'll wait for the NH "poll" in February and the other primary "polls".

[elleng]

83. Clearly a useless/b.s./know-nothing poll.

NOT slamming Bernie's 20% AT ALL, which is nothing but GOOD for ALL of us.

[Kalidurga]

33. I must say I love this strategy...

When it comes to factoring in Independents and people who never voted, but now are canvassing for Bernie.

[1StrongBlackMan]

49. People who never voted are now canvassing for Bernie? ...

http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?&id=JN.tI2t3m7rpEiLOfEwoNl5ng&w=300&h=300&c=0&pid=1.9&rs=0&p=0

[George II]

56. By "canvassing" do you mean going door to door, etc.?

There's nothing wrong with that, they may either be new voters or recently registered voters or just interested in the election and candidate.

I went door to door for a candidate in NYC when I was only 16 years old (MANY years ago!)

[1StrongBlackMan]

59. I think you clicked the wrong person ...

though you did give that poster an out.

[MillennialDem]

35. If the general election reflected the will of the American people on policy positions

the race would be Hillary (R) vs Sanders (D)

For the record in case anyone didn't understand that, I'm not saying Hillary is a republican - I'm voting Sanders in the primary but if Hillary wins will proudly cast a ballot for her in the general election.

I'm just saying she's right of center compared to the American public. Republicans are in fringe territory.

[cascadiance]

36. Hmm... See where Obama was vs. Hillary in 2007 in this poll graph...

Hmm... SAME NUMBERS! And not possible for Bernie to take the lead over Hillary given that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. According to your own graph BHO was down 15-20 points at this time in 07

I will just post the Pollster.Com graph from this election without comment:


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[cascadiance]

48. I was noting that the counts shown in this poll show Hillary with 43% and Bernie with 24%...

... which on the 2007 graph shows about the same numbers within a percentage point or two of where Obama was against Hillary. And at this point given your graph, it shows Bernie growing his share a lot faster at this time than Obama did.

Biden appears to be paralleling John Edwards numbers too as the third place candidate around 12%...

I think given that these numbers are this close, it seems VERY premature for people to dismiss Bernie as being "out of the running", given past history.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. I was noting that the counts shown in this poll show Hillary with 43% and Bernie with 24%...

I was noting that the counts shown in this poll show Hillary with 43% and Bernie with 24%...

That is among Democrats and independents... The poll of polls from 08 and now (the one I cited and the one you cited) are for Democrats only. We are comparing apples and tuna fish.


That's why it's unwise to deconstruct polls and make inferences.

[cascadiance]

58. Many of these "Independents" will register as Democrats to vote for Bernie...

which warps the current polls now, if they don't include those voters that will likely register as Dems before primary season in order to vote for Bernie. And there will be FAR MORE of those indies registering to vote for Bernie than there will be registering to vote for Hillary.

[George II]

50. No, not the same numbers - Clinton had ~ 45, Obama ~25

The bottom line is that Sanders can be up to 49%, as long as Clinton doesn't drop below 50% it's all moot.

[cascadiance]

61. Polls and accurate vote counts are meaningless until election day...

As noted by the polls I posted, they changed QUITE A BIT come primary season starting back in 2007/2008. Clinton in this poll is below 50% (even if it counts others not registered as Democrats now). The thing is that these polls are likely not factoring in that many of these independent voters counted in this poll, and NOT counted in the other polls shown here on just Democratic voters this time around are going to be registered Democrats later before their primaries in order to vote for Bernie.

That kind of variable hasn't happened in the past when you didn't have candidates in a party's primaries that are independents that appeal to independent voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. This is why deconstructing polls is fraught with danger...

You can not compare how Sanders and Obama polled at this point in their respective presidential campaigns and use polls among Democrats only for Obama and polls among Democrats and Independents for Sanders and make any reasonable inferences...

[HereSince1628]

199. Yes, not definitively important, but not totally meaningless either ...

as polls influence media coverage and the bandwagon effect.

Both of those things seem to orbit each other as they each contribute to the general evolution of the primary process. As you say that could influence motivations for registering and participating in the primaries, which is terrifically important as voter participation in primaries is often very low.

I suspect the early polling support also influences grassroots fund-raising, and by choice Sanders really has a dependency there. I suspect that has something to do with the places he's chosen to make campaign appearances.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

82. Using the same methodology(same compilation of polls) she's up 57-17 now...

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

Since BHO and HRC ended in a virtual tie in 08 Sanders could duplicate BHO's progress and still be fifteen points behind next June.

[Stellar]

103. wasn't that poll for 2008? nt

[cascadiance]

130. Yep, and most of it is showing the year 2007. Look at the bottom legend.

2007 for 2008 election is analagous to 2015 for the 2016 election.

[Stellar]

189. Oops, got'cha. edit

edit to add...must ponder that for a few minutes. I;ve never been good with charts.

[SoapBox]

38. All I know is, that this is like a storm...

The Sanderstorm.

He's having an event in Phoenix, that had only been posted a couple hours...they had to already upgrade the venue from 2200 to 5000 seats.

And we're 6 months from the first primary.

He is going to sweep everyone else aside. He's honest, consistent, authentic and totally mainstream...I'm running into people, friends, neighbors and co-workers that when asked are saying, yes, they've heard of him and start asking basic questions, with enthusiasm.

I always ask, what about HRC? Answer, her time is past, her past is now questionable and they aren't excited about her. Others are stronger...if she was the last person on Earth, they won't vote for her.

[Le Taz Hot]

42. Woah!

I hadn't heard that! From 2200 to 5000 already? They're going to have to double that. At least. And after only few hours! That is amazing!

[SoapBox]

51. Isn't it cool!

And the mailman brought my stuff from the Bernie Store today!

One of the stickers is already on my car...washed my Bernie T and am having tea in my mug!

I feel Bernified!



(I also hit up my mailman about Bernie...I'm gonna print him some information)

[daleanime]

57. This is how we roll....

[FollowtheDough]

93. May God or the FSM bless our candidate & President

And may the haters hit their head on the wall repeatedly if he does win the nomination.

[Le Taz Hot]

95. In His Holy Appendages We Trust.

Ramen.

[cascadiance]

71. Here in Portland, Sanders should take the scenic route down SANDY BOULEVARD to the downtown area...

... from the airport when he gets here where he will see and many Portland residents will be able to see him that route on his way to the downtown area where he could have another waterfront gathering like Obama did and perhaps get another 75k of people attending then...



http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2009/04/portland_area_landmarks.html

"Sandy" Boulevard just seems very appropriate for this town on the West Coast to give him the attention he should get here.

[azmom]

73. Just spoke to a republican about Bernie. He was interested

In hearing more.

Go Bernie

[frylock]

96. I think we just found Bernie's theme song..

Pump up the crowds with this!

[restorefreedom]

39. yeaaahhhhhh!!!

to quote howard dean

[still_one]

52. Why isn't O'Malley in there? I cannot believe he doesn't have as much as Chafee, and they should

not include Biden if and until he announces

[Le Taz Hot]

64. Valid point and I do not know

why he wasn't included, since they included Biden who is not currently a candidate.

[still_one]

67. I guess we can assume that it is in the "other" category, which begs the question as you said if

included Biden, I would say they included Chaffee, then they should have included O'Malley.

The poll still represents a trend, it is just missing some important details. It seems that except here on DU, O'Malley hardly gets any attention, and that is unfortunate, because he is as valid as the others

[oberliner]

60. Where is Martin O'Malley

Why is he not included?

[elleng]

86. 'Foolish' (kind word) poll.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

98. I realize that the pool of respondents is small but

the results are close for this stage in the campaign especially for a new name. It is interesting that he is doing well in the midwest.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

76. The sample is too small.

[Smarmie Doofus]

80. I'm tellin' ya: it's a matter of time.

And pretty much ONLY time. And exposure of course.


There is NO way the DEM primary electorate is going to prefer the opposition to Sen. Sanders.

Assuming people get to hear/see him.

He's THAT much better.


Money, consultants, whatever: doesn't matter.

No way, no how, ain't happening.

[peacebird]

101. Rules for Open Primary states (19) are in here, as well as closed primary.

According to FairVote.org
Open primary:

In an open primary, voters of any affiliation may vote in the primaries of any party they choose. They cannot vote in more than one party's primary, although that prohibition can be difficult to enforce in the event a party has a primary runoff election. In many open primary states voters do not indicate partisan affiliation when they register to vote.
One area of contention in open primaries is "crossover" voting. It most often involves voters affiliated with one political party voting in the primary of another political party to influence the other party's nomination. For example, if a district routinely elects the Democratic nominee, Republican voters may attempt to swing the Democratic primary election toward a more conservative nominee. Occasionally, there also are concerns about sabotage, or "party crashing," which involves partisans strategically voting for a weaker candidate in another party's primary in the hope that the opposition party will nominate a candidate who is easier to defeat in the general election.
Closed primary:

In a closed primary, only voters registered with a given party can vote in that party's primary. States with closed primaries include party affiliation in voter registration so that the state has an official record of what party each voter is registered as.
Closed primaries preserve a party's freedom of association by better ensuring that only bona fide members of the party influence who that party nominates, but critics claim that closed primaries can exacerbate the radicalization that often occurs at the primary stage, when candidates must cater to their party's "base" rather than the political center.
In a few states, independent voters may register with a party on Election Day. However, they must remain registered with that party until they change their affiliation again. A handful of states even allow voters registered with one party to switch their registration at the polls to vote in another party's primary. In these rare instances, a closed primary can more closely resemble open or semi-closed primaries than the closed primaries of other states. Such states are still considered "closed," however, so be sure to refer to the "Remarks" column for your state to see if that is the case.
Semi-closed primary:

In a semi-closed primary, unaffiliated voters may choose which party primary to vote in, while voters registered with a party may only vote in that party's primary. Representing a middle ground between the exclusion of independent voters in a closed primary and the free-for-all of open primaries, the semi-closed, primary eliminates concerns about voters registered in other parties from "raiding" another party's nominating contest.

[4dsc]

135. its still early. The revolution will take time

so please don't get your undies in a bunch over this poll so early in the process. Bernie's got plenty of time and no way but up!

[spin]

142. I don't always agree with Bernie on issues but at least I really know where he ...

stands.

Hillary tends to "evolve" in a manner that doesn't permit me to know where she actually stands and where her handlers have told her to stand.

With Bernie what you see is what you get. With Hillary it may be an illusion.

Pay no attention to the woman behind the curtain.

[TheFarseer]

152. I think it will be a big deal

Whether Greens and Socialists Etc will register Democrat and vote.

[Le Taz Hot]

177. There's a post above that outlines

the parameters for open primaries/closed primaries/mixed primaries. The Bernie Sanders Group has a pinned post containing a link that goes to each state's primaries requirements that's pretty useful.

I'm in California and people can register No Party Affiliation if they don't want to register as a Democrat and they can still vote for Sanders in the primaries. If they're in a closed primary state then they can re-register as a Democrat long enough to vote in the primaries then register back for the General.

I think we'll get the Greens. There's too many areas in which Bernie's issues are their issues. Socialists? Maybe but I'm not sure they amount to a significant number.

I think a majority of the crossover votes will come from moderate Republicans, Independents and the previously disinterested/disenfranchised.

[arely staircase]

153. why is Biden in this poll? nt

[onehandle]

162. 531 respondents?

LOL!

[Feeling the Bern]

179. Prepare for the Sandstorm!!!

[OhZone]

187. More accurate than polls -

[Babel_17]

196. He's getting this momentum, which hasn't peaked, from his introductory message

When it gets down to brass tacks, how he's voted, and what he's stood for over his lifetime, vs. anyone and everyone that's placed in contrast, people who've been reserving judgement will get to weigh in.

In the Democratic primaries, early on it's about people wanting to hear the message of the Democratic party being extolled. Advantage, Sanders.

Later on the primary voters will want to hear who can finish the job of rolling back the damage done under Bush. Who will take on the banks, Wall Street, the pharmaceuticals, the multi-nationals, the military industrial complex, the polluters, the tax evaders, the lobbyists, and anyone with a checkbook who thinks our government can be bought.

Game, Set, Match, ... Sanders.