2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTPM Poll: Bernie Sanders (44.8%) Hillary Clinton (36.6%) Martin O'Malley (1%)
These numbers stunned me.
Bernie Sanders (44.8%)
Hillary Clinton (36.6%)
Martin O'Malley (1%)
I think what offsets ideology here is that these are, like all "opinion leaders", very politically active and well read and they talk to other people about politics a lot. That makes them less likely to default to the establishment candidate. Still, for voters who aren't that far to the left, that is a very impressive number.
more interesting stuff:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-tpm-readers-view-the-sanders-phenomenon
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)eom
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)That's a great argument... Vote for the candidate of my choice or you are a cipher...Winning one heart and mind at a time...
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)my candidate's record on every single major issue since he has been in elected office. Then I show them what he is saying in this campaign, and since his campaign words correspond to his actual record, something people know is not the norm for politicians, I have a very easy time drumming up support for Bernie.
When the issue of 'can he beat the Repubs' question arises, I ask them if anyone can do that if the people don't vote for them.
He is energizing the electorate and all the attempts to undermine his candidacy are not even reaching the people who are sick to death of negative campaigning and want to talk about ISSUES not politicians.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)His record and his positions that he has taken most of his adult life speak for themselves.
madokie
(51,076 posts)brooklynite
(94,703 posts)Bernie Sanders has been ahead of Clinton here by miles...how has that had a influence on support in the real world?
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)
If the real world is messaged by it's corporate control of the media, how to do compare and contrast "mainstream" from "niche"?
Those who control the message are "THE" message
How has that influenced or supported objective opinions?
Answer: You eventually try to crowd out objective opinion. Big fat problem for our ever troubling times.
brooklynite
(94,703 posts)...just that it appears that the decision is very different from those of people here, on DK or on TPM.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)think(s) it means:
Bernie Sanders (44.8%)
Hillary Clinton (36.6%)
Martin O'Malley (1%)
VS
... who they think will win ...
Hillary Clinton (78%)
Bernie Sanders (16.5%)
This would suggest that those polled were/are casting protest votes, more than anything, as they really do not think their preferred candidate can/will win.
TPM should have asked 1 more question (if they didn't already ... I haven't seen the underlying survey):
Do you plan to vote for the winner of the Democratic Primary.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)I favor Bernie, but I fully believe it is a difficult (but not impossible) uphill slog against the Democratic machinery and Clinton's corporate backers.
It is not a protest vote to state who you prefer as a candidate vs. making a cold-hearted calculation of that candidate's chances.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Last edited Mon Jul 27, 2015, 05:04 PM - Edit history (3)
Yeah ... that makes it tough to see a path to victory.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)I favor Bernie, but I fully believe it is a difficult (but not impossible) uphill slog against the Democratic machinery and Clinton's corporate backers ... not to mention, the depth and broadness of support of those for HRC [/blockquote
I don't believe the support for Hillary is deep whatsoever. Quite the opposite in fact. Adding those words when you quote me is very dishonest.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)and, that would have been a pain for my clumsy fingers.
Sorry, I will edit the post
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)JI7
(89,262 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)The smart people and not plebeians like me.
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)since they realize no way Sanders will win.
From the linked article:
On who they think will win the numbers are dramatically different ..
Hillary Clinton (78%)
Bernie Sanders (16.5%)
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)eom
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)
is a deliberate message that has been disseminated by the media and is also being furthered by Hillary Clinton campaign. I'm not knocking Clinton for her tactics. This is a campaign
and so the games begin.
I love Sander's ideas and policies, but I am a concerned also about his electability in the general. However, most of my fears on this--if I'm honest--are there because the media and others constantly say that he can't win in the general. But really. Is this logical? He's got a ton of support on the Democratic end. The Republicans will most likely nominate a rightwing nut job (like Walker), or Bush. Or possibly Trump.
Looking at this objectively, why couldn't Bernie win? His stances are actually Progressive, but not off-the-charts crazy. He's for raising the minimum wage, ending corporate corruption of our political system, for funding education, for millionaires, billionaires and corporations paying their fair share of taxes and for a sound environmental policy that doesn't favor Big Energy.
That's common sense. That's Democratic values. When people break through these "bullet points" that are being repeated about Bernie, "He's unelectable", "He's a Socialist", etc--they like what they see.
And make no mistake, there are very powerful, entrenched, corrupt corporate interests that will continue to attack Bernie. He is their worst nightmare. It's understandable that the public has these specific concerns about him. However, Bernie has gone from zero to WOW in a short time because people are done with our corporatized politicians screwing over "We The People". Sander's support is relatively new, and it will take a while to shake the negative marketing that has been ingrained in our minds, about him.
The time is ripe for a candidate like Sanders. The same thing is happening on the Republican side, with Trump. Both sides are just DONE. Americans are looking for someone who is outside of the system, or is willing to fight the system. We're done with politicians and their canned speeches and empty bullshit--when we can clearly see that they are bought-and-paid-for corporate Pez dispensers who will go to DC and dole out whatever candy their corporate masters desire. It's sickening.
I appreciate Hillary Clinton and her legacy. I think she was a great SOS and I agree with her on women's rights and her pro-choice stance. However, she is one of the corporate toe suckers. She is just as corporate as some of the worst Republicans. Not a good time for her to be running. Dems especially, are done with this nonsense. Clinton had a better chance of winning against Obama, than she does today--because of the current psychological atmosphere. Americans see now that they've been hosed. They feel it everyday, in their paychecks and in their despair.
And I'm not talking only about lower-income and middle-income folks. People in the suburbs in the upper-middle classes are being hosed as well. It's impossible to save for college, unless your household income is above $100k. We are being screwed with rising healthcare, grocery prices and stagnant wages. People are pissed. Now more than ever, they want something new, different and removed from the epicenter of our corrupt political system that is actually causing all of this.
Bernie can win. His ideas mesh with the current psychological atmosphere. His approval ratings clearly display this. It's only late July in the process. During this time in the Democratic primary--Obama wasn't as far ahead as Sanders is. In fact, Obama was trailing Hillary Clinton!
It's just going to take some time for the negative Bernie memes that have been ingrained--to melt away. Once people really listen to his message that will happen. And most people aren't getting their news or forming their opinions from the MSM. Especially millennials. Most people are circumventing the MSM, so the attacks on Sanders may dent his campaign--but it won't destroy it. People are finally thinking for themselves and they are suspect of the MSM because it's a corporate owned PR branch of any corporation who wants to use it to destroy, tear down and disinform.
I think this year is different. For many reasons. "We The People" are just DONE. Although there are some reservations about Sanders--those hesitancies are negative seeds that have been planted in the American psyche, repeatedly. Those seeds are based on fears and unsupported ideas, and it's not going to take much to dispel them.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)too much baggage and no trust
might as well inaugurate the r now
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)by wide margins.
And by the by ... so do Democrats, and Liberals, and the young, and women, and "minorities" ... the only demographics that (a) survey has Bernie leading are among those self-identifying as "Somewhat Conservative" and "Very Conservative."
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)at this point. he is getting the crowds, and his numbers are improving,. and he polls well against gop ers in a general. i guess time will tell.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)In you estimation, is losing to the field, excepting Trump, polling well?
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)the one i saw had bernie beating the repubs (don.t know how many i don.t think it included all 17)
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)You show me yours and I'll show you mine!
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
zentrum
(9,865 posts)The whole point is to fight the party machines because they just don't get it right.
okasha
(11,573 posts)President McGovern just lurrrvs it!
George II
(67,782 posts)"On who they think will win the numbers are dramatically different .."
Hillary Clinton (78%)
Bernie Sanders (16.5%)
Back to the middling teens!!
Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)BooScout
(10,406 posts)Like who they expect to win.....Clinton @ 78% vs Sanders @ 16.5%.
heaven05
(18,124 posts)to a Democratic Party voter, again, is a choice between two opposing same Party ideologies. Centrist left politics from someone who has proven time and again they could care less about the middle and lower middle class voter especially POC but knows we have no other choice.....except a democratic socialist who thinks a job will solve all the problems for people of color who are poor and subject to the nationwide NEW Jim Crow segregation, abrogation of civil, voting and human rights at the hands of the militarized occupation army of the new oligarchy class or 1%, the super rich, They, who are slowly taking those rights, really, from everyone. They run the media, they handle and control all politicians, except one so far, I guess. MalcolmX told us what that media control means for the masses and a lot of uninformed, wedge issue buying voters have proved his point, in fact, from every election since his assassination in 1968.
One group of supporters here is saying continually saying STFU to voters who have any concern about any perceived flaws of their candidate, who are usually POC, but not exclusively. The other group of supporters are telling us, "trust our candidate, the past is the past with our candidate and should be left there, this is a new day". While the same old 1%ers are filling that candidates coffers and me knowing, if elected, who will own that candidates soul to one degree or another. Just american politics, money drives the political system and the 1%ers, the monied class, owns it.
My idealism failed me with the Atwater-Nixon reality of how one wedge issue could be used to co-opt one entire political party, turn it on its ear and leave behind dregs of that strategy that have been plaguing POC and the dirt poor middle and lower classes for 40+ years. With more and more being driven into relative poverty, every day.
WE DON'T HAVE A REAL CHOICE!!!! Unless one of the candidates proves to be true to their word of wanting to and actually helping POC survive the occupation army disguised as police forces that 'protect and serve' their communities. We do know what they protect and who they serve. Unless one candidate, who has seen some light in the last three weeks or so, is really understanding/ knowing that the jobs meme must be just A priority. Who has seen other priorities make themselves known in tragic ways and are issues to be dealt with outside of the need for jobs. Voting and civil rights must be restored BEFORE this election. Unless that candidate stands up tall, either candidate, then that candidate is just another typical offer, with two bad options this time, to vote for.
That is the only way the candidate we choose is going to win. One candidate must show some humility and grace in accepting responsibility for causing a perceptions of their racism, true or not. One must assure us bankers and the monied class won't own that candidates soul, if that candidate wins the GE. One has laid out pretty good policy proposals to help those struggling with the overwhelming burden of a college/banking system that loads a potential graduate with huge debt. That candidate has offered decent hard working and retired folks of our country relief from the creepublicans trying to take our "entitlements" away, for our own good.. . Laudable proposals by that candidate, yet falls short of addressing important issues affecting america's racial cohesion because of the lack of equal justice faced by millions of decent hardworking americans trying to survive in this american culture as a specific race of american. A race that has had to remind other races that #Black Lives Matter...
Voting, civil, racial and social rights, equality and justice, of all americans, is the immediate top priorities we should all be, locally, statewide and nationally concentrating on this next election. No matter who we, the Democratic Party voter, ends up with as our 'leader' and hopefully, the nations. Just meandering on what I feel I face in the upcoming choice of candidate to represent just, me.
moobu2
(4,822 posts)Maedhros
(10,007 posts)Similar to internal DU polls.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Self-selected internet poll?
If so, the numbers are almost useless.
Is there a link to the actual poll?
Zorra
(27,670 posts)True_Blue
(3,063 posts)He is a breath of fresh air! It feels so invigorating to be able to vote for someone of integrity rather than the lesser of two evils.
delrem
(9,688 posts)vs. Republican, and tend in their willy-nilly use of the word "center" to be "more center-left than left-left", which is argyllbargle.
Then it says of these voters that "these are, like all "opinion leaders", very politically active and well read and they talk to other people about politics a lot." That sentence has no other purpose than to massage the egos of their readers, their customer base. It's just marketing.
If these voters are so smart, how is this distribution possible:
"On who they think will win the numbers are dramatically different ..
Hillary Clinton (78%)
Bernie Sanders (16.5%)"
That reads to me that TPM's voters buy into the "inevitably - because $$$" myth. A myth that was in effect "pre-sold" on this campaign season. To me that means that their predominant characteristic is acquiescence to being chattel with little or no self-volition, politically -- rather than having any real will to fight it.
Freddie Stubbs
(29,853 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)It seems to have been a self-selected internet poll, which is pretty much useless. It's like Ed Schultz's cell phone polls. It's political masturbation.
Freddie Stubbs
(29,853 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)So there's that.
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)prefer Sanders.
Given that those people tend to be the activists and campaigners, that bodes well for Bernie.