24, 26, 23, 21, 22, 22, 23, 20

[Godhumor]

Last edited Tue Sep 1, 2015, 11:48 AM - Edit history (1)

Those are Bernie's polling numbers since the big broohah was made about CNN and Fox showing him at 29 and 30 percent. One thing that stands out here is that those numbers are remarkably flat across 7 different polls by 6 different pollsters (Morning Consult is shown twice). Considering PPP tweeted that Clinton will be +35 in its poll tomorrow, it is safe to guess poll number 8 will be in the same range.

Folks, it is really simple. If Bernie doesn't make significant inroads with non-white voters, moderate Democrats and the established Democratic base, then he has a ceiling. He needs to break through in all three of those groups to have any real chance. And, with at least two of those groups, that means he is going to have to find some middle ground between his ideals and practicality.

Let's see how Bernie evolves in this campaign if he is serious about winning and not just pushing the party to the left.

Poll results from Pollster.com, by the way.

Edit to add: PPP can out today with Sanders at 20, so right in line with the other seven polls.

[Motown_Johnny]

1. .

[Godhumor]

4. Completely missed my point

Pollster is smoothing results to continue established trends for "x" amount of time. You want to see what it looks like since the CNN and Fox polls? Pick less smoothing as your option. Or pick August 17th on for your results.

The 29 and 30 haven't been reached since. Polls did not sure the same jump anywhere. The last 7 polls (plus the forthcoming PPP) don't represent numbers surging from one day to the next. They represent he has a real plateau he needs to hurdle if he actually wants to break 30 for real.

[Cry]

8. Missing the point completely.

National polls = better for general elections. State polls = more accurate picture of the primaries.

[Motown_Johnny]

18. .

With less smoothing the trend is clear. This is still silly season and it is way to early to predict anything. All this really shows is that Hillary's name recognition support is starting to dry up and that more people are learning who Bernie is.

About a month ago there were lots of posts about how Hillary's numbers were not falling. We can now see how wrong all of those posts were. I think that a month from now this thread of yours will fall into the same category. Time will tell.

I understand your point very well. I simply disagree with it.

[HereSince1628]

22. You know changing the time line considered is a technique used by climate deniers

to suggest that there is no global warming. Change the time reference and noise can make all manner of things possible to see in a noisy time-series.

Looking at the trend lines since before the effectors of interest were present (in this case the announcement of campaigns) is a pretty good way to be able to see and compare how effectors are leveraging the trajectories of public opinion under study.

In this case that requires placing the origin of the consideration back to at least March, if not January.

[djean111]

2. This is where those debates will come in handy. nt

[frazzled]

12. How do you know they'd be "handy"?

I ask this in all seriousness and with sincerity. Everyone has been clamoring for more debates for their candidates. But how do they know this would help them? It might, indeed, hurt them.

For all the debates that were held in 2007-8 (some of them DNC sponsored, most of them not), I never saw that the debates were dispositive of anything. And believe me, I watched them all. I was an Obama supporter from the get-go, but I realized pretty early on that debating was not his forte at all. He hated them, and he was not so great at it. By the time the field got whittled down from the 8 of them to just 2, I always felt Clinton was the better debater by far. It didn't matter. Well, it sort of did ... she picked up steam in the latter part of the campaign after the initial losses, but it was too late to catch up with the delegate game, which his team had brilliantly strategized. She did, however, win a greater number of popular votes.

Everyone of course thinks, as they should, that the candidate they support is great. And that if people only had the chance to hear from them they'd be instantly won over. It doesn't work that way. Partly because not everybody thinks like you, and partly because not that many people really watch the debates. And partly because debates don't seem to move voters all that much. Your candidate may lose support after debating (or gain it, who knows?). And some of the best debaters get nowhere (I thought Al Sharpton stole the stage every time--but of course, he didn't get any votes at all.) All I'm saying is, be careful what you wish for. People are looking, if they look at all, for a host of things, policy positions being among the least of them. They're looking for who looks most "presidential." They can be put off by things like tone of voice. Let's remember John Edwards, who was the darling of the Internet, its favorite candidate. He got lost in the debates and never recovered.

In the end, candidates who are behind always want more debates. Candidates who are ahead don't want the risk of them. It's always been thus.

PS: I've also been thinking about this clamor for more debates in terms of how people watch things in 2015. Which has changed a lot since 2008. People can now stream a debate that has occurred at any time, or watch it repeatedly on YouTube. We certainly don't need more debates for greater access to those who "miss" them live. They almost never cover wholly new subjects.

[whatchamacallit]

3. Tired of this shit

Here's what I see from Clinton supporters

Constant concern, exhorting Sanders better find a way to reach PoC
Constant jubilation and denigration when he (supposedly) doesn't

Thanks for the help.

[jfern]

6. Exactly, it's some disgusting race-baiting

They didn't have a problem with white voters being her base 8 years ago.

[John Poet]

25. Indeed, Hillary BRAGGED about her white support,

and implied it was more important than the huge number of minorities supporting Obama, and seemed to say that only white people were "hard-working"...

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/clinton-touts-white-support/?_r=1

Wasn't pretty.

[frylock]

13. This should be pinned

[Hiraeth]

28. fucking A

[Cry]

5. Stop touting the national polls as gospel

Primaries doesn't give a hoot about national polls. State polls matter.

It's these two recent state polls that should give Clinton fans a LOT of pause.

New Hampshire: (Graphics are clickable to its sources)



Iowa:



Do you see where I'm getting at?

Plus, Bernie's support is rock solid, and Clinton's support is still soft.

[Godhumor]

10. Because NH looks so much like the rest of the country

National polls mirror actual results well over 90% of the time.

Bernie needs to move beyond his core to win.

[Pauldg47]

16. Listen...

...when Bernie takes Iowa, which I'm thinking he'll be leading in about sixty days, the rest of the nation will notice. The only thing Hillary is stalling (however, teardrops will be coming).

[jeff47]

31. FINAL national polls.

We are nowhere close to final.

Wins in IA and NH would destroy the "he can't win" myth, along with the "inevitable" myth. And the Clinton campaign is all-but-saying Sanders will beat them in NH, and is making noises about losing in IA too.

Follow those with a loss in NV or SC and Clinton is in very deep trouble. Loss, loss, loss is not going to put her in a good position for Super Tuesday.

She desperately needed her win in NH to keep her campaign alive in 2008. Similarly, she will need a SC win to keep her campaign alive in 2016.

[AtomicKitten]

7. National polling is the last to move. Obama was further behind at this point in 2007.

It's all about the trend and hers has been a downward trajectory since early this year.

[Major Hogwash]

11. STOP USING FAX!! I'M SERIES!!! POLES DON"T MEAN SH*T AT THIS POINT IN TIME!!

I don't even know how this damn thing works --->

[jfern]

9. Let's look at the RCP averages from 2007

On this day (Aug. 31), Hillary led by only 16 points (37.4-21.4).
By October 16, she led by 27.8 points (48.2-20.4).

Clearly she had the Big Mo and got the nomination.

[Armstead]

14. I suppose he could endorse fracking, or deregulating those poor bankers

That make him a better candidate in the eyes of some here.

[stevenleser]

15. I see what Bernie is doing and its really the only option available to him. He only has the money

to compete in 2-4 states. It just so happens that the demographics of the first two states are ideal for him so it makes sense to concentrate everything he has in those states.

The problem for him is, after Iowa and New Hampshire, he faces what Hillary faced after the second week in 2008 only much worse. He doesn't have the money or organization to compete.

He may not have the right folks to compete in Iowa either. We will have to see.

Bernie's strategy is to win one or both of Iowa and New Hampshire and hope that causes a flood of money to come his way so he can compete in the rest of the states. If that strategy somehow fails, either he doesn't win either state or doesn't win convincingly or the wins are factored in and dismissed or enough money doesn't come his way afterwards, he will be done.

The national polling you provided shows that he is not running a national campaign and is thus not a serious candidate. At least not at this point.

[Motown_Johnny]

19. His numbers in WV are good and he is moving into SC now

If he can move the polls in SC this will change the face of the race.

He did just start running in April. It looks like he is doing pretty good so far, but it is early. Time will tell.

[BooScout]

20. That's exactly his strategy....

He is running only for the first few primaries. If he wins he plans on asking his supporters for more money to keep his campaign running. His strategy is also to be picking up endorsements along the way (which he has not done at all at the national level so far).

Also included in his strategy is to attract minorities by bringing them under his Economic Revolution umbrella (another key point that he has not managed to do to date).

[Fawke Em]

24. He's expanding to South Carolina.

Not as quickly, but he is.

Right now, he has no official offices, but I expect he will soon.

[beerandjesus]

26. The Charleston office opens tonight.

[Hiraeth]

29. good to hear. please, keep us updated. thanks

[PeteSelman]

17. I wish he could get the wall to wall coverage Trump and Hillary get.

It's disgusting the way he's treated by the media but it's quite obvious why he is. If everyone could hear him speak 24/7 like we have to hear idiot Trump, Bernie would be crushing everyone in the polls.

But, alas, we have a puppet media who give us our puppet politicians and nothing will ever change except for the worse.

Still have to fight the good fight but everything is stacked against the People.

[BooScout]

21. Your figures are are accurate....

...and they show he isn't moving nationally....nor is he gathering any supporters from the minority voters. I don't see him going much higher in the polling.

[Skwmom]

23. Bernie gets 1% (if that) of the political coverage and NO Democratic Debates.

Pushing the party to the left, really? Bernie represents CORE Democratic values , not corporate (aka moderate) values.

Then the fake memes which I will address in another post.

[Hiraeth]

27. Does anyone have a demographic breakdown of the poll participants? Thanks.

[Godhumor]

30. Bumping for inclusion of the PPP poll showing his support at 20

Right in line with the other results.

[Amimnoch]

32. K&R!!