Polls Show Bernie Sanders Winning the Democratic Nomination. It's Time for America to Notice.

[99th_Monkey]

Polls Show Bernie Sanders Winning the Democratic Nomination. It's Time for America to Notice.
9/1/15 * H. A. Goodman * HuffPo

When Sarah Silverman introduced Senator Bernie Sanders to an energized crowd of 27,500 people in Los Angeles, POLITICO ran a piece that same day titled Clinton asks staff to turn over email server, thumb drive. On the day Bernie Sanders drew a crowd of 4,500 supporters in Reno, Hillary Clinton answered a question with the now legendary statement, "What, like with a cloth or something?" Several days after Bernie defeated Hillary in the informal Iowa State Fair poll, The New York Times ran a headline with the words, Judge Says Hillary Clinton Didn't Follow Government Email Policies.

There are countless other examples illustrating the different trajectories of both Democratic challengers, and nationwide polls are finally beginning to reflect this reality. Even FiveThirtyEight now says We Got Berned, and while concerns about name recognition and polling among minority voters still exist, only Bernie Sanders has a Racial Justice platform praised by Black Lives Matter, and only Vermont's Senator has the support of Cornell West, Killer Mike, and Lil B.

Senator Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination in 2016 not only because he can type an email without nationwide controversy, but also because he's exhibited a monumental surge in the polls. This ascent within the hearts and minds of Democrats began several months ago, and will only continue with greater name recognition.

According to HuffPost Pollster, Clinton's lead over Sanders among Democrats was an astounding 60.1 percent to a mere 4.9 percent on March 2, 2016. By August 26, 2015 Bernie Sanders surged all the way to 23.4 percent while Clinton fell to 47.1 percent. America should finally start to notice a political "revolution" in the making, especially since most Americans still don't know much about Sanders, yet he still continues to rise in the polls.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/polls-show-bernie-sanders-winning-the-democratic-nomination_b_8069452.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

[Le Taz Hot]

1. The first major publication

to come out as say this is a real possibility. Excellent! And that's without money, without media attention and WITHOUT DEBATES.

[arcane1]

2. Indeed, they delayed those debates for a reason.

He was supposed to be dismissed as a cranky racist by now.

[mcar]

3. Isn't this writer a Paulite?

I thought he'd been exposed several times already.

[99th_Monkey]

4. Shooting the messenger much?

H. A. Goodman is an author and journalist who studied International Relations at USC and worked for a brief stint at the U.S. Department of State's Foreign Service Institute. He's been published in Salon.com, the Jerusalem Post, Chicago Tribune, The Hill's Congress Blog, the Roanoke Times, and various other publications throughout the country. Goodman is also the author of Breaking the Devil's Heart and Logic of Demons, a widely acclaimed series of existential fantasy novels.

To be fair, Goodman did author this: "I'm a Liberal Democrat. I'm Voting for Rand Paul in 2016. Here Is Why. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/im-a-liberal-democrat-im_b_6169542.html

But I don't think that means he's necessarily a card-carrying Libertarian. He self-identifies as a "Liberal Democrat"


BTW - yes, Bernie is drawing in disaffected voters, who had totally given up on politics as usual, he's
appealing to the youth demographic who haven't ever been much interested in electoral
politics, he's getting strong support from many independents who don't vote anyone's party-line,
and yes, he's unboutedly also getting the attention of some self-identified "Libertarians" who may
vote for him in Nov, due mostly to Rand Paul's abysmal showing in the polls.

[Gothmog]

5. This article cites the We Got Berned Article from 538-I don't think that the author read 538

The We Got Berned article does not support the claims of the author cited in the OP http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

And guess what? They sorta have a point. Although his gains may not be as great as before, polls in August showed Sanders continuing to pick up support in New Hampshire (the situation in Iowa is less clear). But the fundamentals of the race haven’t changed very much. In particular, Sanders has shown little sign of winning over votes from African-Americans or Hispanics, which would limit his growth as the race moves on to more racially diverse states.....

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.

There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasn’t won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators haven’t changed over the past month.

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

It appears that the author of this article did not read the "we got Berned' article or did not understand it

[Adrahil]

8. A political hack doing what political hacks do....

One thing that shocked me as I got older is how very uninhibited by self-reflection so many media wonks are. They will say anything in print, or on TV with only the shallowest of knowledge or experience, and with apparently, not self-doubt. It's most obvious when the subject is about something I know in-depth, of course. If it's a technical or science issue I know well, it is SHOCKING to me how reporters speak with confidence about the subject and yet are absolutely WRONG. That even goes for journalists I typically really like. Take Rachel Maddow. One of my favorites. Watch her all the time. Whenever she has covered "drones," she very often gets the technical details of how these things work wrong. It's like the press is allergic to talking to an actual scientist or engineer. Nope. Got have a gorgeous 30-year-old "analyst" or, at best, a craggy-looking ex-military man who, by the way, also knows JACK about how the stuff actually works.

There are really only a few journalists and analysts I consider reliable on a consistent basis.

[LWolf]

6. This has to be my favorite headline of the season.

I'm glad to see he acknowledged the concerns that still exist; as long as we keep working on them, we've got a good chance.

And seeing something positive about Sanders is always refreshing.

[DanTex]

7. Apparently Rand Paul supporters are no good at math.