Analysis of polling data shows Biden entering hurts Clinton, not Bernie

[karynnj]

This article compares the poll result of polls including Biden vs those without Biden. While true that this likely is not completely what one would have seen had Biden actually announced he was in the race, it is one of the few attempts to use polling data to investigate who would be most impacted.

As the article explains, there are various theories that depend on what you believe motivates supporters of Sanders, Clinton or Biden. However, plotting the poll estimates shows that Clinton is very affected and Bernie is not really impacted at all. (They estimate a 6 point loss from HRC's numbers due to Biden's inclusion in the polls. I am skeptical of this estimate because there really are only a small number of data points available to fit the Biden included line. ) The author himself includes many caveats.

Still, it is an interesting way of looking at the poll results. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/09/06/polls-show-a-biden-presidential-run-would-hurt-clinton-not-sanders/

[TwilightGardener]

1. That makes sense. Biden would be an alternative to Clinton, they're pretty similar

politically. Bernie really isn't an "anything but Clinton" kind of choice, he's sort of got his own thing going on.

[Fawke Em]

2. And the polls back that up, too.

In one poll, 96 percent of the people polled who were supporting Sanders said they liked Bernie's position and that their preference of him was not a repudiation of Clinton. They just liked his message better.

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. What poll would that be? Link? n/t

[bigwillq]

3. I can see that

Biden and Clinton, to me, are similar candidates. Neither one excites me.

I don't really get into all these poll posts, because I am sure the polls will change many times over the next six months, but I can see how Biden entering might hurt Clinton more.

[Moral Compass]

4. Biden won't run

Biden has already said he doesn't think he has the emotional stamina to run.

I've seen no compelling evidence that he intends to run.

[karynnj]

6. True, this does suggest though that there is interest in a non HRC mainstream Democrat

In fact, in an article essentially asking if the Sanders supporters are really Sanders or just "not Clinton" --- the truth is likely that some HRC support are really simply supporting what they see as mainstream Democrats - and Biden is the one offered.

In fact, it suggests that the inevitability may have prevented any other mainstream Democrat from starting a serious campaign that would have placed them as an alternative.

I think Biden is incredibly conflicted. Everyone can see that he is personally devastated by the death of his son. He also likely has to know that there will be a HUGE burst of negativity if he challenges the Clintons. It will not be pretty -- and it will be painful for Biden and has the possibility of completely damaging the party.

[oasis]

7. C'mon Joe, either fish, or cut bait.