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virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:17 PM Sep 2015

Why our nominee must be Bernie. Hillary cannot defeat Trump

Trump opposes cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid....... Hillary has been tentative on this issue, Bernie has been very vocal


“Every Republican wants to do a big number on Social Security, they want to do it on Medicare, they want to do it on Medicaid. And we can’t do that. And it’s not fair to the people that have been paying in for years and now all of the sudden they want to be cut,”
Donald Trump - April 2015 New Hampshire Republican Leadership Summit

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/trump-tea-party-populist-exposed-213111

Trump has also talked for years about the need for universal health care.

Confronted last week about his position by conservative radio host John Fredericks, Trump stuck to his guns. “We have to help them out. And I would make deals with hospitals, and I’d make deals with people where they can get some care, John. I mean, you can’t have a guy that has no money, that’s sick, and he can’t go see a doctor, he can’t go see a hospital. You know, I just don’t think you can have that,” Trump said. Trump told the host he didn’t care if his position cost him votes in the Republican primary, saying “you have to take care of poor people.


http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/conservative-with-a-heart#.ft3az260Wr


Trump opposed the Iraq War - Bernie did too, so this will not be an issue for him....But Trump will nail Hillary for her initial vote, and for the current problems with ISIS.....and everything in between.
with a dash of email server and a smidgen of Benghazi. He will blame Dubya, Obama and Hillary and will lump everything together.


"Look, the war is a disaster. The war should not have been entered into," he told The Dallas Morning News while his fiancee, Melania Knauss, looked on.

"To lose all of those thousands and thousands of people, on our side and their side. I mean, you have Iraqi kids, not only our soldiers, walking around with no legs, no arms, no faces. All for no reason. It is a disgrace."


http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/07/13/1089484339401.html

Wall Street and Raising Taxes on the rich

Trump has been attacking Wall Street-especially Hedge funds. Bernie can handle that and more- Hillary will have to play defense.



If Trump wins the nomination, it means that he will have defeated the Republican establishment. He will be able to run to the left and the right of Hillary....she will have no chance.

Bernie will have the credibility to attack the inconsistencies of Trump. Hillary will spend all of her time on the defensive.








65 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Why our nominee must be Bernie. Hillary cannot defeat Trump (Original Post) virtualobserver Sep 2015 OP
A Vote For Hillary In The Primaries Is A Vote For Trump In The General cantbeserious Sep 2015 #1
What a fucking pantload... SidDithers Sep 2015 #2
what a rebuttal....or should I call it a re"butt"al. virtualobserver Sep 2015 #3
There is nothing to re"butt" it's a foolish post... Agschmid Sep 2015 #6
The OP Said The Same cantbeserious Sep 2015 #7
the only foolish thing is ignoring the reality that a Trump candidacy poses virtualobserver Sep 2015 #11
A Trump candidacy is unlikely... Agschmid Sep 2015 #13
I thought that initially virtualobserver Sep 2015 #17
The OP Said The Same cantbeserious Sep 2015 #5
Your point???? sheshe2 Sep 2015 #29
Your Point? cantbeserious Sep 2015 #30
Yup~ sheshe2 Sep 2015 #25
+1 Starry Messenger Sep 2015 #27
Whatever... Agschmid Sep 2015 #4
I'm laughing at one of my right-wing FB friends. First he's all over the T-Rump bandwagon brewens Sep 2015 #8
They are more malleable than most people realize virtualobserver Sep 2015 #15
?????... revmclaren Sep 2015 #9
empty ridicule is all you have, whereas I have been watching the polls virtualobserver Sep 2015 #10
So have I... revmclaren Sep 2015 #12
He has a point. Maedhros Sep 2015 #20
Why thank you... revmclaren Sep 2015 #24
Of course my post was empty. I'll admit it. Maedhros Sep 2015 #55
The argument in the OP is persuasive. Who cares who says it? JDPriestly Sep 2015 #34
Very nice point Flying Squirrel Sep 2015 #57
Yes. People are equal and matter equally. JDPriestly Sep 2015 #58
Except for the people on my ignore list of course. Flying Squirrel Sep 2015 #60
I don't intentionally have an ignore list. JDPriestly Sep 2015 #63
Most people will vote for celebrity status when there is a celebrity. Puzzledtraveller Sep 2015 #14
It sounds like you're a Trump supporter if he's running against Hillary Renew Deal Sep 2015 #16
absolutely not virtualobserver Sep 2015 #19
not everyone here is as gullible as you think Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #18
gullible.....would be someone that imagines that Trump will not do what I mention and much more. virtualobserver Sep 2015 #21
She seems to be handling it just fine. zappaman Sep 2015 #22
Technique #7 - imply that any criticism of Hillary is right wing. virtualobserver Sep 2015 #23
Well, there's a lot of $ out there that is coming from Crossroads USA Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #26
The only suspicious angle is the way that Trump will attack Hillary....from all sides virtualobserver Sep 2015 #28
Bernie may not be running on how bad a candidate Hillary is Flying Squirrel Sep 2015 #59
Biden / Sanders joewalsh38mich Sep 2015 #31
Welcome to DU! SoapBox Sep 2015 #32
Hi, welcome to DU! herding cats Sep 2015 #35
I was a lurker for YEARS! Before I joined... Agschmid Sep 2015 #44
I lurked off and on for awhile, too! herding cats Sep 2015 #46
A bag of rice could beat trump in the general Gore1FL Sep 2015 #33
I don't know if I'd say that. But Trump's got some serious baggage. PatrickforO Sep 2015 #53
What concerns me about a Hillary vs Trump Campaign LostOne4Ever Sep 2015 #36
I disagree... Jenny_92808 Sep 2015 #37
If she wins the nomination, I hope that you are right virtualobserver Sep 2015 #38
Most of the volunteers in my Bernie group are women. JDPriestly Sep 2015 #64
Trump will be gone before the first primary oberliner Sep 2015 #39
Unfortunately, I don't agree virtualobserver Sep 2015 #41
It's true oberliner Sep 2015 #42
He has a crazy way of showing that virtualobserver Sep 2015 #43
That has been my feeling too. nt Live and Learn Sep 2015 #61
If my country has degenerated into a place that would elect Trump over Hillary DFW Sep 2015 #40
Trump is now outpolling both Hillary and Bernie. We need to start taking him seriously. stevenleser Sep 2015 #47
Everybody loves the new rich kid on the block DFW Sep 2015 #65
You have it the wrong way around. Bernie is particularly vulnerable to Trump. stevenleser Sep 2015 #45
I realize that through this lens of conventional wisdom you see this picture virtualobserver Sep 2015 #48
Nope, it's not a conventional lens. It's the lens the race now presents us with. stevenleser Sep 2015 #49
I refuse to accept your new and improved conventional lens until.... virtualobserver Sep 2015 #50
'Bernie will have the credibility to attack the inconsistencies of Trump.' PatrickforO Sep 2015 #51
I wouldn't go that far rsexaminer Sep 2015 #52
According to Gallup Monk06 Sep 2015 #54
Definitely shouldn't be people walking around with no legs. Flying Squirrel Sep 2015 #56
Trump isn't a serious candidate AgingAmerican Sep 2015 #62

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
2. What a fucking pantload...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:22 PM
Sep 2015

Last edited Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:17 PM - Edit history (1)

A Vote For Hillary In The Primaries Is A Vote For Trump In The General




Sid
 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
11. the only foolish thing is ignoring the reality that a Trump candidacy poses
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:34 PM
Sep 2015

and Hillary's vulnerability

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
17. I thought that initially
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:46 PM
Sep 2015

and I also thought that either Hillary or Bernie would easily defeat him.

He is much smarter than most people realize.

brewens

(13,582 posts)
8. I'm laughing at one of my right-wing FB friends. First he's all over the T-Rump bandwagon
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:26 PM
Sep 2015

but then disowns him after that first debate. Basically saying he was out of his mind thinking of handing the keys to the nuclear arsenal to T-Rump. He thought he saw what would shoot T-Rump down in flames but it didn't. I even commented on his thread that if you knew who T-Rump was going in, what he said shouldn't phase you. Like WTF did you think the guy was like? It's going to be funny to see how he rationalizes getting back behind T-Rump. I have the feeling he will have to.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
15. They are more malleable than most people realize
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:42 PM
Sep 2015

they also have a lot of experience holding two incompatible beliefs in their minds at the same time.......like the tea party people railing against socialism and holding signs saying keep your hands off my medicare and social security.

revmclaren

(2,520 posts)
24. Why thank you...
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:11 PM
Sep 2015

I guess we both agree on each others posts.

Although you seem to want to reply to my posts. When you post, I don't find any reason to actually read them. You directly posted a reply to me...that's why I'm replying THIS time.


And no, I don't do ignore... I want to see and screen shot all the vacuous hit pieces on DU.

Bye.



 

Maedhros

(10,007 posts)
55. Of course my post was empty. I'll admit it.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 02:15 AM
Sep 2015

Perhaps some introspection on your part.

Consider your earlier post:

Subject: "?????..."
Content: " She's DOOMED..says no one who matters! "

I think I'm correct in pointing out that this post really has no discernible content other than a tidbit of snark. You made no effort to attack any of the premises put forth in the original post (with which I disagree, by the way). It's somewhat ironic that you would express concern about "vacuous hit pieces." It's fair criticism to call out arguments that lack substance, not a "hit piece."













JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
34. The argument in the OP is persuasive. Who cares who says it?
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:41 PM
Sep 2015

That is what is the problem with Hillary's candidacy. The people who support her support her because they mistakenly think she is inevitable and "Bernie can't win," and they think that because after all the "people who matter" say that Hillary can and that Bernie can't win.

People who matter more than other people DO NOT EXIST.

The people that most people think matter so much don't really matter at all come election day.

The only people who matter on election day are the ordinary voters, and if we prefer Bernie (and for good reasons some of which are set forth in the OP), then Bernie will win.

Democracy requires that we think for ourselves and don't just agree with "the people who matter."

The OP was written by someone who thinks for him or herself, and that is why the OP is so great.

People who matter -- have you ever met any of them? They aren't any different from me and you. Probably less well educated and less knowledgeable. Probably less experience in life. Take your pick. People who matter more than you don't exist.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
63. I don't intentionally have an ignore list.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:43 AM
Sep 2015

But some time ago, I looked at my DU profile, etc. and found names on ignore. I have no idea how they got there. I am a real klutz when it comes to the internet.

It's a wonder I can successfully post. But I don't put people on ignore. What is the point of being on a discussion forum if you put people on ignore? I don't understand that idea.

I'm also one of these people who is normally inclined to vote to leave posts alone. I very rarely get in a bad mood and vote to remove one.

I just think that before I venture out to a discussion website, I should put on my tolerance tee-shirt, my humanity hard-hat and my insult-proof vest as well as my compassionate lipstick and my loving eyes. Otherwise, what is the point?

How can we build more understanding, a more positive society, a better world for our children and grandchildren if we can't share ideas with people who sometimes disagree with us without becoming personally angry or hurt?

Taking things personally, putting the ego out front, those are qualities that make living in peace and harmony difficult. So I try to leave them out of my conversations on DU. I don't always succeed, but I try to watch myself and practice.

Thanks.

Puzzledtraveller

(5,937 posts)
14. Most people will vote for celebrity status when there is a celebrity.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:41 PM
Sep 2015

We should hope the rnc doesn't change tactics and instead make him their preferred candidate. Outside of that, if he is the nom I think HC would have a tough time against DT.

Capn Sunshine

(14,378 posts)
18. not everyone here is as gullible as you think
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:47 PM
Sep 2015

But the subtext of this post- to sow dissension in the interwebs Democratic communities is accomplished.

Bernie is running on the merits of his platform, not on how bad a candidate Hillary is.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
21. gullible.....would be someone that imagines that Trump will not do what I mention and much more.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 09:53 PM
Sep 2015

Hillary can barely handle her free ride from Bernie, and a bullshit investigation from the Republicans.

I am not interested in changing anyone's vote.

I just wanted to go on record with what I see.

zappaman

(20,606 posts)
22. She seems to be handling it just fine.
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:09 PM
Sep 2015

Then again, I don't frequent RW sites, so maybe they say different?

Capn Sunshine

(14,378 posts)
26. Well, there's a lot of $ out there that is coming from Crossroads USA
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:16 PM
Sep 2015

to do exactly that. A suspicious angle is always suspicious.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
28. The only suspicious angle is the way that Trump will attack Hillary....from all sides
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 10:25 PM
Sep 2015

Just take a look at the way he has dismantled Bush and treated the Club for Growth like it is his play toy.

He will attack Hillary on Iraq.....no other Republican other than Rand Paul would do that.





 

Flying Squirrel

(3,041 posts)
59. Bernie may not be running on how bad a candidate Hillary is
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:00 AM
Sep 2015

But that doesn't change the fact that primary voters and caucusgoers take into consideration which candidate they believe is more likely to beat the opposition in the GE - IOW, who's the better candidate, who has fewer flaws and negatives overall, who excites the base without also energizing the opposition base.

 

joewalsh38mich

(2 posts)
31. Biden / Sanders
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:08 PM
Sep 2015

Long time lurker but had to join with the 2016 election coming up.

I hope it is either Biden or Sanders as I think they can beat the Republicans.

Even my family and friends that used to think Hillary was a shoe in have reconsidered she has too much baggage and has a big chance she will lose the general election.

Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
44. I was a lurker for YEARS! Before I joined...
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 12:28 AM
Sep 2015

And then when joined I rarely posted for four years, it's funny how it happens.

herding cats

(19,564 posts)
46. I lurked off and on for awhile, too!
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 01:00 AM
Sep 2015

The resources here can't be beat, and I enjoy being around people who are politically more like me than not. Especially since the rise of the Tea Party. Giving so much credibility to the extremist haters in this country made it so a lot of online political discussion turned positively vile. I like having a place where all that is filtered out for me.

PatrickforO

(14,573 posts)
53. I don't know if I'd say that. But Trump's got some serious baggage.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 01:55 AM
Sep 2015

Best not underestimate the opponent, though. Because if his name's got an R by it, he'll get around 40% of the vote as a given. The outcome will depend A LOT on who can pick up the most independents, and that's Bernie.

LostOne4Ever

(9,288 posts)
36. What concerns me about a Hillary vs Trump Campaign
Mon Sep 7, 2015, 11:57 PM
Sep 2015

[font style="font-family:'Georgia','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=4 color=teal]Is that I think a very anti-establishment sentiment is descending upon the country and could sink her campaign.

On paper Trump has no chance no matter who we nominate as our candidate. BUT, the same could have been said by all the Republicans running in the primary before Trump joined in. [font style="font-family:'Papyrus','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=5 color=scarlet]They thought he was a joke[/font] and his idiotic statements would sink him from the get-go.

Now they are all desperately trying to keep up. Nothing they throw at him, and nothing he does, sticks. They underestimated him and are paying for it. I can't help but wonder if we pick an establishment candidate like Hillary if the same thing will happen to us.

I think the Hillary's own fall in the primaries is a result of this anti-traditional politician fever taking hold. People are tired of the establishment politicians and they are looking at the republicans giving their party's leaders the middle finger and nominating an outsider and are wanting to do the same to the democratic party.

Further, I believe they are thinking that if Trump is the nominee elect-ability goes out the window cause [font style="font-family:'Papyrus','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=5 color=scarlet]Theoretically[/font] both Sanders and Clinton are more electable than Trump. They can vote for the candidate they LIKE best for once and not the one the party tells them is more electable.

Of course, the first election is still [font style="font-family:'Papyrus','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=5 color=scarlet]Months and Months away[/font] and things could change drastically. As marginalized moderate nominees quit their supporters could coalesce around an establishment candidate and put an end to the trump and his campaign.

Or, once he is faced with a general election all his idiotic statements might finally come back to haunt Trump and he will find himself losing in the most "Spectacular, luxurious, and classLESS" way imaginable. Anything is possible, but if Trump is the nominee I think Sanders status as a non-establishment candidate would be a tremendous asset.

But there are a lot of different ways this could go.[/font]

 

Jenny_92808

(1,342 posts)
37. I disagree...
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 12:05 AM
Sep 2015

The women's vote will elect Clinton if she wins the primary. Actually, I would prefer Bernie.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
64. Most of the volunteers in my Bernie group are women.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 04:17 AM
Sep 2015

I think I might have supported Hillary in 2012 before Obama was elected the second time. But since that election, I am disappointed in the economy, in the inability of Democrats to get across to Republicans just why we need more Democrats in Congress.

I think I am disappointed in the cautious and fearful way that the DNC and conservative Democrats approach change.

Obama did a great thing today in requiring government contractors to provide sick leave to their employees.

The privatization of essentially government functions is one of the big swindles of our time. To the extent that privatizing government functions is actually cheaper than hiring government employees, it is because the private companies treat the people who do the actual work, their employees really badly in many cases.

So Obama's executive orders about the working conditions of employees of private government contractors are really great.

But the Bush administration criminals who tortured prisoners of the "war on terror" and other crimes of the George W. Bush administration remain unpunished. And our stock market is allowed to function like a Wild West on Indians. Only in this case, the Indians being shot at are the small investors.

I haven't seen enough of the change and moving forward that Obama promised. I think Hillary will be even less likely to change and move forward than Obama. We need real change, especially when it comes to policing and to the economy. I think only Bernie will be able to bring that change.

 

oberliner

(58,724 posts)
42. It's true
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 12:14 AM
Sep 2015

He does know what he is doing - and what he is doing does not involve trying to become president.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
43. He has a crazy way of showing that
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 12:25 AM
Sep 2015

I do know one thing.....he will not stop until he has crushed the Republican party.

DFW

(54,372 posts)
40. If my country has degenerated into a place that would elect Trump over Hillary
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 12:11 AM
Sep 2015

Then I'm glad I now live elsewhere.

But I don't see it happening any more than I see a declining media-made "war hero" defeating an "uppity" black guy in his first Senate term. I think some people spend too much time making sure they can spell "corporatist" if called on in a spelling bee.

Trump is enjoying his day in the sun, and he has enough money to fly in and out of anywhere, so his 15 minutes may stretch into 15 weeks. But if people seriously fear that this country would elect Donald Trump to the presidency, then either it has become a place populated by a majority of insane people, or the people who have a genuine fear of it spend too much time on the internet and the Sunday talk shows and too little out in the real world.

I have no idea who our nominee will be, nor do I much care at this point, and I am perfectly comfortable with all three major candidates currently seeking the Democratic Party's nomination. I am also perfectly confident that any of them would wipe the table with Trump in any General Election.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
47. Trump is now outpolling both Hillary and Bernie. We need to start taking him seriously.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 01:10 AM
Sep 2015

True it is only one poll and it could be an outlier. But the fact that he is anywhere close means we have to be ready for him.

DFW

(54,372 posts)
65. Everybody loves the new rich kid on the block
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 07:34 AM
Sep 2015

And the Republicans' one true god has been money for decades. It impresses them more than the second coming.

That said, yes, we have to keep an eye on him, but don't forget--last time, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich all were Republican front-runners at one point. Polls are snapshots, usually taken to show something in a light intended by the one taking the snapshot. It's how the movie ends that matters, and the plot of this one is about three seconds old.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
45. You have it the wrong way around. Bernie is particularly vulnerable to Trump.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 12:53 AM
Sep 2015

Both of these candidates hope for getting independents/non-ideologues etc. to vote for them is to appeal to them by saying they are not a typical politician.

If that is what you are looking for, are you going to vote for the person who has been a politician in government for 25+ years in congress alone, or are you going to vote for the guy who has NEVER been in government.

Trump neutralizes this aspect of how Bernie hopes to appeal to independent and non partisan voters and even persuadable Republicans.

You are not going to out-Trump Trump. The way to deal with Trump is to push experience and competence and highlight the fact that Trump doesn't have those things.

Bernie can't offer as much as Hillary can on those points.

Bernie also will have a lot of trouble with Trump in the debates. Most politicians will quite frankly. But Hillary has a lot more experience dealing with hostile Republicans and she also has had 20+ Presidential debates with President Obama.

Hillary is a much better choice to take on Trump.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
48. I realize that through this lens of conventional wisdom you see this picture
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 01:35 AM
Sep 2015

but Bernie's method is pure grass roots. When people catch the Bernie virus, they become evangelists.
Bernie's support is growing month by month with no advertising and no debates. It is the message, and his life story together that form this virus of authenticity... when People do catch it, they pass that virus along with intensity and enthusiasm.....that old adage that word of mouth is the best advertising is still true.

He doesn't need to out-Trump Trump. His vision for America is quite different than Trump's, the contrast will be easy to see.

If his grass roots movement grows to the point where he defeats Hillary, he will be leading Trump by 20 points in the polls.

Bernie will not let Trump or the moderators push him around, he will do perfectly fine in the debates.
If you think that he will, you haven't been watching him very closely.

My problem with Hillary vs. Trump is her voting record and her time at State and the many ways that Trump will attack it...She has her fingerprints everywhere and he will attack her from both the left and the right.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
49. Nope, it's not a conventional lens. It's the lens the race now presents us with.
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 01:37 AM
Sep 2015

My conventional lens says that Sanders should be at 2% in the Democratic Primary and Trump should have been forced to drop out after the Latino comments at his first speech.

PatrickforO

(14,573 posts)
51. 'Bernie will have the credibility to attack the inconsistencies of Trump.'
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 01:51 AM
Sep 2015

Yes, he will, and he will begin by stating his specific solutions to the problems, as Trump has not done. All Trump seems to say is, "Oh, it will be fine. I'll get the best people...I'll make deals..." but what does that really mean?

rsexaminer

(321 posts)
52. I wouldn't go that far
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 01:52 AM
Sep 2015

I side with Bernie over Hillary, but I still think she has the better chance to win on a national level than Sanders.

Monk06

(7,675 posts)
54. According to Gallup
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 02:09 AM
Sep 2015

As of October 2014, Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans, when party "leaners" were included; those figures changed to 41% Democratic and 42% Republican after the November 2014 elections.[3] However, an earlier 2013 Gallup survey found that 42% of Americans identified as political independents, a record high.[4]

So Dem and GOP are dead even at 42% and Trump has 30% of that giving him 14% nationally and most of that the anti immigrant teaparty/evangelical rump voters who hate the GOP establishment and won't vote if Trump doesn't win the nomination.

14% that is what all the noise is about and a fickle angry 14% at that.

 

AgingAmerican

(12,958 posts)
62. Trump isn't a serious candidate
Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:21 AM
Sep 2015

And if he did actually get the nomination, he would get trounced by anyone. I doubt he lasts until the primaries.

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