What would Biden's real impact be?

[rsexaminer]

If Joe Biden does enter the race, which I lean more toward him not doing, do you think he will take more votes away from Clinton or Sanders? Considering he is more of an "establishment" figure, one would think that Clinton would have the most to lose, but I could be wrong.

[Warren DeMontague]

1. I think Hillary's people really, really, REALLY don't want him to get in.

He occupies an extremely similar valence, policy and establishment-wise, to HRC.

I don't see him siphoning off a ton of votes from Sanders. IF Sanders' support was really about some desperate search to find a white dude, any white dude, because racism/misogyny, as some people seem to think, Biden might make a dent.

But it's not.

Clearly the folks losing their shit at the prospect of a Biden run are team Hillary. I think for Sanders it would increase his chances.

[VanillaRhapsody]

2. And why that is disingenuous

You are condemning hrc supporters for not wanting it.l on one hand ....then brag that it helps your candidate..on the other..thats a bit hypocritical dont you think? But definitely disingenuous

[Warren DeMontague]

3. You seem to have some difficulty interpreting what I'm saying. I'm not 'condemning' HRC people for

not wanting Biden to get in.

I'm observing the phenomenon, as a relatively obvious and understandable reaction. And as a reflection of the political realities I outlined above.

But let's run a few things down:

One, I don't have a primary candidate, not yet. Getting there, though. Believe me, when it becomes official, I'll let you know!

Two, if Biden gets in I have trouble envisioning myself supporting him for the nomination, myself, given his history on several issues.

Three, I haven't really weighed in on whether I "want" him to get in. I think it might be good to see some churn. Also if Hillary's campaign seriously self-destructs it would probably be good for the party to have a few alternative options- barring the case of an incumbent president seeking re-election, I don't consider "inevitable" primaries with only one or two options- even if I support one of those options- to be a particularly positive or healthy situation.

[VanillaRhapsody]

4. Noooo...you denigrate them...

Then you jusitify them.....

Silly season indeed...

[Warren DeMontague]

24. at least I don't fold, spindle, or mutilate them.

[beam me up scottie]

6. Let her go, I love it when she's on a roll!

I'm a guy who's telling women what's best for them according to Vanilla, she's obviously very astute.

[Warren DeMontague]

23. I sympathize. Apparently, I have a sock--- who I never spoke to until 2 days ago.

Who knew?

[Garrett78]

8. "I do not think it means what you think it means."

I'm not sure you know what "hypocritical" or "disingenuous" mean. Warren's just expressing straightforward logic. Obviously the big name party establishment candidate would not want another big name party establishment candidate to join the race. I, mean, duh. And, if you're a Sanders supporter, it's only natural to hope Biden enters the race. There's nothing hypocritical or disingenuous about that.

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[VanillaRhapsody]

9. Yes there is..

He described them as irrational....then justified it by making it rational....ironic no?

[Garrett78]

10. Huh?

I guess I've missed how "he described them as irrational."

Here is what Warren wrote that inspired you to call him hypocritical and disingenuous:

"He occupies an extremely similar valence, policy and establishment-wise, to HRC.

I don't see him siphoning off a ton of votes from Sanders. IF Sanders' support was really about some desperate search to find a white dude, any white dude, because racism/misogyny, as some people seem to think, Biden might make a dent.

But it's not.

Clearly the folks losing their shit at the prospect of a Biden run are team Hillary. I think for Sanders it would increase his chances."

No irony. No hypocrisy. Genuine and logical. I suppose you might take issue with "losing their shit," but I'm pretty sure Warren is just referring to things like this: http://theweek.com/speedreads/573849/bill-clinton-reportedly-agitated-by-idea-biden-jumping-into-race

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. The entry of Joe Biden would present problems

The entry of Joe Biden would present problems for Hillary Clinton but I doubt her or her people would "lose their shit" over it. Those that doubt the persistence, the resiliency, and the indomitability of Bill and Hillary and their associates do so at their own peril.

[VanillaRhapsody]

25. Not to mention the loyalty of Democrats....

[Romulox]

21. He largely represents the same interest$$$ as Hillary. nt

[VanillaRhapsody]

29. So do you have anything good to say about ANY Democrats?

[rsexaminer]

31. Agreed.

That's what I think. It would only help Sanders in the long run IMO.

[Garrett78]

5. He'd obviously pull more support from Clinton than from Sanders.

But I doubt it'd be consequential. The Clinton Camp, with loads of money and seasoned operatives, would really have to implode for HRC to not get the nomination.

[VanillaRhapsody]

7. Very true

[restorefreedom]

11. sadly for joe

i don't think he will ultimately get a lot of support, except for some undecideds and people who have already said they support him.

i really don't think his heart is in this. and i hope he does not cave to the eatablishent to have a "back up" for hillary.

i hope he realizes that the dnc establishment does not care about him. he is a tool to them, and he deserves to end his political career on a higher note than being used as a back up for those who are terrified of real change.

take care of your family, joe....we will be fine.

[Attorney in Texas]

12. Take more votes from Clinton but more dramatically reduce Sanders' chances at the nomination

Sanders is an underdog because his views are more progressive than the ideological mid-point of the party.

For such an underdog to win the nomination, Sanders needs the consolidated support of the progressive wing of the party (and he's crushing this task) plus the consolidated support from other Democrats who may be choosing a candidate for reasons beyond ideology (such as those who dislike the idea of a "dynasty," those who don't like or trust Clinton personally or don't like her style, those who don't like a candidate who has peremptorily locked in so many establishment party endorsements so early in the nomination process before the grassroots have had time to consider the candidates, etc.).

Biden cannot touch Sanders' grassroots support from the progressive wing of the party who have chosen Sanders based on ideology (like me) because Biden has spent his whole career at the ideological center of the party. Biden would severely cut into Sanders' ability to gain the backing from segments of the party who will choose a candidate to support on grounds other than ideology (those voters who would prefer an alternative to Clinton but for reasons other than her ideology).

By cutting into Sanders ability to build support beyond the progressive wing of the party, Biden reduces Sanders from an underdog to a 1-in-100 long shot.

With that said, Biden takes more votes from Clinton, but her pathway to the nomination has an almost unprecedented on-the-ground infrastructure, party establishment support, and fundraising network, and -- therefore -- is built with more room to survive the type of challenge Biden poses.

Although he cannot beat Clinton, Biden's entry into the race spurs endless rounds of "Clinton campaign in crisis" every time a fundraiser shifts to Biden or a politician withdraws from the Clinton campaign to support Biden (he's a sitting VP so there will inevitably be a few defections but not nearly enough for Biden to win -- just enough to make Clinton look weaker).

Ultimately, Biden does not win because Sanders has unshakable support among progressives and Clinton has an insurmountable head start over Biden in terms of locking down centrist/party establishment support and fund-raising sources. In the process of losing the primary (for the third time), Biden kills off Sanders' underdog insurgency and weakens Clinton's candidacy in the general election (and also changes Clinton's VP selection criteria and erodes Clinton's need to choose a progressive VP to unify the party if she barely beats Sanders in a Clinton-Sanders showdown).

Biden could turn into the Democratic version of Trump: a candidate who cannot win the nomination but whose candidacy weakens the party's nominee in the general election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Some folks here also labor under the misimpression a person can secure his or her ...

Some folks here also labor under the misimpression a person can secure his or her party's nomination without a majority of the delegates.

[VanillaRhapsody]

26. and with no money!

Abracadabra!

[TSIAS]

13. i think he hurts Clinton more

Just look at the preemptive moves by the Clinton campaign to convince Biden that they've essentially got the nomination wrapped.

I think she'd pull from those supporting Clinton, but are more loyal to Obama and might have reservations due to the bitterness of 2008.

I also think he'd be more likely to question Clinton's credibility than Sanders. So far, Bernie hasn't really gone into questioning Clinton's character. For Biden to differentiate himself, he'd be forced to take a stronger position against Hillary. If the reports are true that Biden doesn't really like what the Clinton brand represents, it could be trouble for her.

[NorthCarolina]

16. Establishment candidates are likely to draw support from other establishment

candidates. I don't expect that Joe entering the race will have much impact on the Sanders campaign, however Hillary...now that's a different story.

[Puzzledtraveller]

17. He would get the nom over HC.

As much as he would still have to best Sanders and O'Malley, Biden would end up the preferred candidate of the establishement DC chapter which includes our pres.

[Attorney in Texas]

18. If you think Sanders gets an unfairly small portion of MSM coverage now, just imagine if the MSM had

the opportunity to report a Biden-Clinton showdown for SuperPAC funds and party establishment endorsements. If that were to occur, Sanders's coverage would dip to current O'Malley levels. A Biden candidacy is the end of Sanders' hopes (and my hopes) that true progressive may get the Democratic nomination in a year when the Republicans may likely pick an un-electable or primary-damaged nominee.

If you are looking forward to shifting the current debate from centrist versus progressive to a new debate of male centrist versus female centrist, by all means, encourage Biden to get into the race.

[Puzzledtraveller]

19. I totally agree.

I don't want Biden to enter. I'm concerned he will however.

[Romulox]

20. Many of Hillary's supporters are of the "back the winning horse!" variety.

Much of her support would evaporate, overnight.

[VanillaRhapsody]

27. based on what?

said the guy with the upside down flag as a avatar...

Please enlighten us!

[Le Taz Hot]

22. Takes votes away from Hillary.

There are Yellow Dog Democrats who do not want Hillary to be the nominee, but because they're pledged to The Party, they have to work for her campaign. If Biden comes in, it splits that constituency.

Bernie, however, will continue his upward trajectory as more and more people learn who he is, what he stands for, and sees a 50-year history of social reform activism.

[VanillaRhapsody]

28. thanks for the laugh

[AtomicKitten]

30. Correct as illustrated in a recent survey.

Well, according to this survey posted http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251577608 he takes votes from Hillary.

ram2008

Monmouth Poll: HRC 42%, Biden 22%, Bernie 20%

According to a survey from Monmouth University, Mrs. Clinton’s national lead among her Democratic rivals has slipped, with 42 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters supporting her nationally. That’s down from 52 percent a month ago, reflecting the toll that the controversy over her email practices as secretary of state is taking, and the prospect of Mr. Biden entering the race.

Mr. Biden now trails Mrs. Clinton at 22 percent, with by Senator Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont, at 20 percent. Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders were at 12 percent and 16 percent, respectively, in August.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/08/joe-biden-gains-support-at-expense-of-hillary-clinton-poll-shows/?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Data here: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/a35d9ff8-45d4-476d-8751-f0f2e6b54a7b.pdf

Joe Biden's entry in to the race takes 10 pts from Hillary and still Sanders is up 4.