Monmouth Poll: HRC 42%, Biden 22%, Bernie 20%

[ram2008]

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has yet to decide if he will make a run for president, but his flirtation with the idea is giving him a lift in a new poll and it comes at the expense of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

According to a survey from Monmouth University, Mrs. Clinton’s national lead among her Democratic rivals has slipped, with 42 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters supporting her nationally. That’s down from 52 percent a month ago, reflecting the toll that the controversy over her email practices as secretary of state is taking, and the prospect of Mr. Biden entering the race.

Mr. Biden now trails Mrs. Clinton at 22 percent, with by Senator Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont, at 20 percent. Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders were at 12 percent and 16 percent, respectively, in August.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/08/joe-biden-gains-support-at-expense-of-hillary-clinton-poll-shows/?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

Data here: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/a35d9ff8-45d4-476d-8751-f0f2e6b54a7b.pdf

Looks like the prospect of a Biden candidacy will take votes away from Hillary, she dropped 10% from last poll. Biden gained 10%, Bernie gained 4%. Not really liking the idea that Biden is already polling ahead of Bernie even though he is in the race, but I believe he is close to his ceiling, while Bernie has room to grow. I have a feeling Iowa is going to end up being a three way race like in 08.

[Agschmid]

1. How/Why do you believe Biden is near his ceiling?

[ram2008]

2. Good question

Just a gut feeling. However, the data actually says otherwise... as Biden is the candidate that most people would "somewhat support." I think he sort of becomes the insurance policy candidate for both HRC and Bernie supporters if things don't go right for their candidate. However, I think that if every candidate played their cards right, he probably has a natural ceiling around 30%.

But things change, so I wouldn't rule out the ability of him going higher.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I would be more than happy to have Joe Biden as our nominee should Hillary falter.

I would be more than happy to have Joe Biden as our nominee should Hillary falter. He is a great safety net.

[ram2008]

4. I feel the same way if Bernie falters

And I think that is where his strength will be. A bridge/unity between Bernie and Hillary supporters if their campaigns falter. Especially if its a Biden/Warren ticket.

[sabrina 1]

23. Biden is an establishment politician, just like Hillary. Nothing would change much if he were to win

But to give him credit where it is due, he appears to have some regrets now. His recent advice to young people to not trust those who take money from large corps, to not listen to excuses from even people like himself, for taking it, because he said, 'it is the number one issue that must be resolved before anything else can get done'.

He also told supporters of Sanders this weekend, that they should 'vote for Bernie' because he is a 'good man'.

I believe he has compromised a lot and remember many times being so disappointed in him after hearing him say one thing, then go vote the opposite way.

So no, unless he takes the advice he gave two groups of people so far this month, himself, refuses corporate money as Bernie is doing, and makes it the number one issue he says it must be, I would not be happy with Biden. He has even told not to 'even trust me'.

I appreciate his honesty on that, he knows he is too caught up in the system he now condemns to be able to do what someone like Bernie can do, fight it. He is there because he played along and he has more or less said so.

[ram2008]

26. He's certainly been a much better VP than Senator

If I were to judge him by his Senate career I would say he is too third way, but if I were to judge him by his VP career then he is much better. According to several people he was always the more dovish voice in the admin, almost always challenging Hillary's interventionist thinking.

He was also the one who forced Obama's hand on the marriage issue. I guess we'll see what sort of message he tries to sell if he runs.

[Attorney in Texas]

28. Biden will not win the nomination and--if nominated--will not win the general election. Look at the

approval-disapproval polling on the Obama-Biden administration as well as the right-track/wrong-track poll numbers. They do not bode well for the general election with Biden as the nominee running as the sitting VP.

[Warren DeMontague]

10. I wouldn't categorize my response as "more than happy". For one, he's got some 'splainin to do on

several topics, not the least of which is his long-time boosting of the drug war and his sponsorship of the idiotic RAVE act.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. If one was uncharitable he or she could say he threw Anita Hill under the bus.

That really was a bad look.

[Warren DeMontague]

29. indeed, there's that, too.

I'm not leaning towards HRC right now, but I'm leaning less towards Biden.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Nothing can be discussed dispassionately here.

Nothing can be discussed dispassionately here. That being said, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are generic center left Democrats. Whatever their differences are they are more style than substance.

I also think Joe's best day will be the day he announces.

[Warren DeMontague]

31. cornflake chicken, olive garden, porn and the moon bombing.

those are your go-to noncontroversial, safety topics, man.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Porn is actually a highly divisive topic here.

Porn is actually a highly divisive topic here, as is circumcision.

Back to Biden and Clinton. Ideologically there is little or no daylight between them.

[Warren DeMontague]

35. a joke, that was. Yes?

I remember the porn wars. Most people figure that consenting adults should be able to entertain themselves as they see fit, but a few people lose their shit over that notion.

But yes, every few years they flare up, like sunspots, or el nino. I remember, indeed.

And the moon bombing wars. And the cornflake chicken wars.



Good times.

Yeah, on the point, though: It seems pretty obvious that any talk of Biden running is tied to perceptions that Clinton has some intrinsic problems in her campaign that can't be fixed and may damage her candidacy. I mean, under normal circumstances the Veep is the go-to candidate (Cheney being another notable exception) when term #2 of the incumbency is up... Biden has been most decidedly not setting up a run, and until recently it seemed fairly settled-

so, yes, he would be a replacement establishment swap out for HRC, one imagines.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. I never understood the porn wars

I never understood the porn wars. With the advent of the net it's ubiquitous and anybody who wants to watch it can. The toothpaste is out of the proverbial tube.

I guess some folks want to argue it's incumbent to shame those who watch it. If that's your goal , go ahead...



As for Biden and Clinton it should be fun...The senator from MBNA is as much a captive of Big Money as she is. To deny that is disingenuous. I respect and appreciate folks who are true believers. I am pretty jaded when it comes to politicians. It's not that I believe they are ignoble or rotten at the core but I do believe there is much artifice in them and their principles can be flexible.

[Warren DeMontague]

37. Indeed to all you say.

Probably someone, somewhere, actually has a fetish that involves putting the toothpaste back in the tube. And now, thanks to the internet, they can find their community.

But you've given me the opportunity to repost the calendar, which is good, because the old link wasn't working and I need it in my journal to keep handy.. although I really should update it to, say, 2016.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. I am a huge fan of the Kennedys ...

I am a huge fan of the Kennedys but they played hardball politics and used lots of dirty tricks against HHH in the 1960 primaries and RFK wasn't above making a racial appeal against Eugene McCarthy in his sadly aborted 1968 presidential race. It doesn't mean they were bad people or remotely close to bad people but it does demonstrate that even ostensibly good people will act badly in self interest.

Politics isn't a profession for saints or wannabe saints.

[Warren DeMontague]

39. true, and even a crappy Democrat is still preferable to any clown from the GOP clown car.

at least IMHO.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Ha

I am reading "Being Nixon-A Man Divided" by Evan Thomas...

RMN was in a high school play and he played the romantic lead. He had never kissed a girl before so when he did it was so awkward the crowd guffawed.

There is also another anecdote where Ike is trying to teach him how to play golf and he wasn't very good. Ike said" you are big and young and strong, there is no reason you can't be good at this."

The scars those incidents must have left.

[Warren DeMontague]

41. yeah, if Oliver Stone is to be believed, Nixon had a refrigerator-sized inferiority complex.

Sort of felt bad for the guy after watching that movie, even. Sort of.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. In the book he is constantly writing memos to himself to be positive.

eom

[underthematrix]

5. Interesting poll - when was it done?

Biden is my first choice and I'm hoping he gets in

[HappyPlace]

6. Smoke and mirrors promoted by the media-- the Biden thing I mean.

There are so many different ways to interpret these numbers but in the end they're shit.

Biden hasn't even announced so I'll just wait and see and look at state by state polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It is what it is...

Regardless of how you or I feel the MSM desperately wants Joe Biden to get in the race.

On a editorial note, Senator Sanders is working his ass off for the nomination and it is disturbing to see him trailing someone who isn't even running.

[Skwmom]

25. Biden and Clinton have name recognition. Bernie has been either ignored or disdained.

Yesterday, I heard all about the polls, very little about his message, and a reference to "populist rhetoric" as if that's all it is.

In addition, I consider national polls meaningless.

[zappaman]

11. I'm gonna SKIP it and wait to see what NYC has to say about all this...

[stevenleser]

14. I see what you did there...

assuming you are right

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I would not be happy to SKIP NYC on my way from Florida to Massachusetts

So much to see there

[zappaman]

33. some now have the time to travel...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=324283

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I can't say that was an unwelcome development./nt

[stevenleser]

8. I have to say that if I am Biden, those numbers might encourage me to go for it.

A 35-40 point gap and I'm not doing it.

A 20 point gap, as this poll suggests, before he has done any campaigning at all, and I would probably start putting a team together.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. He is the vice president.

A 20 point gap, as this poll suggests, before he has done any campaigning at all, and I would probably start putting a team together.

He is the sitting vice president.

[stevenleser]

12. Yes, but two months ago he was 35-40 points behind in polling. - Edited to add link to polls

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16dem.htm

Had it stayed that way, those numbers are very daunting.

Bernie Sanders has been campaigning hard for several months and has only now gotten to 20 or so points behind assuming Biden is in the race, which he might not be.

Bernie therefore is still not that close to Hillary for all the flailing he and his supporters have been doing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I do think like any candidate he benefits from being out of the fray.

I do think like any candidate he benefits from being out of the fray. Lets's not forget when HRC announced her candidacy she was leading her presumptive Democratic opponents by 50 points and her presumptive Republican ones by twenty points.

Biden is heck of a Plan B and , imho, he is the only candidate beside Hillary, that can keep the Obama Coalition of The Ascendant together but his candidacy is not without difficulties.

There is no perfect candidate.

[ram2008]

13. Yeah, I would pull the trigger at a 15 point gap.

Wonder if it'll close a bit more before October.

There are a few likely paths for him if he closes a bit more.

1) Bernie wins Iowa, New Hampshire, Biden wins SC -> Biden and Sanders probably duke it out for the nomination as the establishment dumps Hillary.

2) Clinton wins Iowa, Bernie wins New Hampshire, Biden wins SC -> Probably have a 3 way race going on for quite a while

3) Biden wins a surprise win in Iowa, Bernie wins NH, SC is close b/w Biden and Hillary -> Bernie loses momentum and the race becomes Clinton vs Biden.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. A reasonable interpretation of that poll

A reasonable interpretation of that poll, that would be offered by any dispassionate observer, is the main stream Democratic candidates have 64% of the vote and the non main stream Democratic candidate has 20% of the vote.

You can spin that any way you want.

[ram2008]

17. Name ID

Joe Biden’s personal rating has ticked up a few points in the past month, now standing at 71% favorable to 9% unfavorable, compared with 67% to 14% in August. Despite her drop in nomination support, Hillary Clinton continues to be viewed favorably by the vast majority of Democrats. Currently, 71% of her party’s voters have a favorable opinion of her and just 17% hold an unfavorable view – which is identical to her rating in August.
Bernie Sanders’s rating of 41% favorable to 14% unfavorable – with 45% of Democrats who still have no opinion of him – is similar to his 42% to 12% rating in August.

Remember, then Senator Obama's numbers were similar to where Sanders is right now against Clinton; although I believe he had slightly higher name ID.

The states to watch are Iowa, NH, SC where the people are paying a little bit more attention.

[SonderWoman]

18. Holy shit. Biden just overtook Bernie in new poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I like HRC but we are fortunate to have Joe Biden as a Plan B.

eom

[SonderWoman]

24. K&R!

[Doingto]

27. The media could adopt a "this is terrible news for Bernie"

But they don't care about anything but Hillary at this point.