2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumReports are that Biden may wait until late October or early November to decide to run
The WSJ has a story out on this and there was some discussion on MSNBC of this rumor. No one knows for sure what Joe Biden is thinking right now and he deserves all of the time he needs to make a decision following the loss of his son http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-secretly-meets-top-obama-100259078.html;_ylt=AwrT6Vu0XvdVXqEAso8PxQt.;_ylu=X3oDMTEzbHNxNnYwBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDRkZVSUMwXzEEc2VjA3Nj
This new scenario would have several distinct disadvantages. It would mean skipping the first Democratic debate on October 13 in Nevada. It would mean missing the annual Jefferson Jackson dinner in Iowa on October 24, an event traditionally of no small political importance. It could mean missing the Florida Democratic Party convention on October 31 and November 1.
But the new timetable might offer certain upsides. It would afford Biden and his people the chance to gauge whether Clinton is able to reverse her slideor, on the contrary, reap the benefits from an enhanced sense of Democratic unease if her skid continues. It would, in particular, let Biden wait until after Clinton's October 22 testimony to the House Select Committee on Benghazi, which might conceivably exacerbate her current maladies. It would give Bidenworld more time to put the functional pieces of a campaign in place. And it would give Biden himself more time to come to terms with the emotional turmoil still roiling inside himand to be certain his family is in favor of him running, as well as being genuinely prepared for what it would entail.
If this rumor is correct, then it appears that Biden may not get into the race unless there is an implosion in the Clinton campaign. Getting into the race this late in the game works if Clinton is dropping out and Joe's main opposition is Sanders but does not work if he is going to take on an undamaged Clinton campaign who will contest the nomination.
Again, this is a rumor and only Joe Biden knows his timing.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Barky Bark
(70 posts)That's all it needs to be said. Joe's already has given very subtle clues.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)they want to float it that they have an eatablishment alternative to bernie, and they dont.
they are terrified of him, as they should be.
the party is over in more ways than one
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)momentum constantly. I don't think the DNC has any impact on Bernie's rise if it's real.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but this is not a typical year. it is antiestablishment all the way.
his campaign has to consider that.
personally, i would rather see joe go out on a high note than as a three time presidential loser. that would be another blow that he and his family so not need.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)DNC is worried about Hillary, and has been since this has been floated.
That's why those that say Bernie Sanders has no chance are doing their best to whistle past the graveyard.
NowSam
(1,252 posts)He who hesitates is lost.
Joe sitting on sidelines, Hillary perceived as in on it with DWS to limit the debates. Looks like a duck.
Bernie the Brave Hearted has already won.
That means The people win this one.
Siwsan
(26,260 posts)As hard as Colbert pushed him, I definitely got the vibe that his heart just isn't in it, right now. If Beau hadn't died, it would be a far different story - he'd be out there campaigning, no doubt.
big_dog
(4,144 posts)it just may be too damn soon for him yet
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Not sure why other Sanders supporters don't want him to join the race.
Barky Bark
(70 posts)after the first or second debates.
Clinton is already sinking like a rock - and Bernie's done the smartest thing - and he's doing it. He is rallying and converting those to actual Democratic votes - the DNC should be worshipping Bernie on their feet for bringing in the needed voters to their party. That's exactly why Bernie chose to use their party, their structure, and their process to get Democratic Party back to its FDR roots. That's where it's needed.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)I think realistically he has until the beginning of October to make his decision. But it seems like behind the scenes his team is building a campaign so that its ready to go when he makes that choice. I really do think Obama favors him over Hillary, and if he has a tacit Obama endorsement him and Hillary will split the black vote and allow Bernie to come out ahead.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)so the long-side limit makes sense
Avoiding a Biden v Clinton clash that produces Biden haters and Clinton haters, while sucking up resources also makes sense. 2008 showed Clinton to be very reluctant to withdraw. That would be just as likely to be the case this time around. If campaign H> levels out and gets back on course all that pain can be avoided.
A 3 way race is unwanted as it lowers the bar needed to win a plurality for the nomination for everyone, including Sanders... lowering the bar for Sanders pretty clearly the last thing wanted by the DNC, and the plutocrats.
Rather than risk threatening H> and the fight that would produce it's better to take a wait and see... Biden doesn't really need the exposure that comes with debates, what he needs is a weak H> that justifies his entry.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)One thing, if you look at Joe Biden's career, and him as a person, is that he is either all in or not.
He is a great man. I like him, he has served our country well. I suspect, though, that even Joe Biden has decided he has given enough.
If anybody deserves to retire with his wife and paint pictures of dogs and cats, it's Joe Biden, though he will probably do something like transform a Pennsylvania housing project into a thriving center for children, scientists and sustainable farming.
He's not going to run, and doesn't have to run as the DNC's backup handiwipe if Hillary falters (which she is), nor should he.
He has busted his ass in Congress enough.
Gothmog
(145,168 posts)Starting in early November is too late to run against the current Clinton campaign but is plenty of time to run against a non-mainstream candidate with little financial backing or infrastructure. Biden is not going to get into a fight with the Clinton campaign at such a late date. If there is an implosion at the Clinton campaign, then Joe could be the savior of the party. No one thinks that Joe will get into the race in order to help Sanders. If Clinton decides that she is too weakened to continue, her machine and support will transfer to Biden rather than support Sanders.
delrem
(9,688 posts)He's acting like he's running, the MSM is putting him forward exactly as he's acting.
He must decide now.
I don't see how people could put up with three more months of the "anguish of Joe" deciding whether or not he "has the heart" to run.
Warren said no - decisively. She isn't playing mind-fuck electioneering games, and neither should any other of the prospective candidates that the MSM click-baits us with.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)deadline. Is he going to start as a pull you along, wishy washy, uncommitted candidate? Not an appealing start.
Make your decision Joe and have conviction in it.
It certainly give credence to the DNC backed scheme here. Trot Biden out to make that the story. Give cover to Hillary's impressive nose dive and buy time for her to recover, which she won't.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)that they don't have a candidate with "appeal" other than Hillary Clinton, while other Dems are flocking to Bernie Sanders, as are voters.
If you don't think they are in a panic, look at how they are try to tell everybody how to vote.
Once again, Hillary Clinton is cratering in the polls, just like she did in 2008.
I want to give her a big hug and console her that she will never be President of the United States and it isn't because she is a woman. It's because she is so unlikable I would trust her to offer a ham sandwich to a Jewish guest. Say "Goddamn it" while meeting the Pope. Generally shitting in a hot tub because she "can" and pee wasn't enough to convey her message.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)They don't have anybody other than Hillary, and she's a lead balloon.
delrem
(9,688 posts)Get used to it.
Biden is HRC without the immediate baggage, and with a whole lot of MSM empathy thrown his way. It's hard to imagine who wouldn't think that Biden is better than Clinton. It just isn't by very much. They are both quintessential establishment politicians.
Here's the thing I don't understand about this total MSM orchestrated circus. How come Martin O'Malley is nothing, while Joe Biden is something, in our MSM dominated discussion of possible third voices in the debate which has so far been between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton over who should win the Dem primary contest? I say this as a foreign observer: Joe Biden has been getting better and more press as "Dem candidate" than Martin O'Malley, and it seems a bit underhanded to me.
jfern
(5,204 posts)I assume it would be no later than the filing deadlines. Earliest might be Arkansas, which is November 9th.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)He won't run.
JackInGreen
(2,975 posts)So: BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN
God this is getting old.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I doubt he really wants to run. He will only do it if he feels he needs to to save the party.
delrem
(9,688 posts)Just in case "anything significant comes out of the email mess".
Sounds like the move of a super-hero.
So do you give him until November to "save the party"?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)delrem
(9,688 posts)Prove that you know from "silly".
Gothmog
(145,168 posts)November is too late to mount a serious run against the Clinton campaign but is plenty early enough to run if Clinton is not in the race
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)just a rumor.
RandySF
(58,797 posts)Gothmog
(145,168 posts)I do not see this happening. Early November is too late to mount an effective campaign against a well financed and seasoned Clinton campaign. If there is an implosion in the Clinton campaign, then Biden has plenty of time to run and win against any other candidate other than Hillary Clinton