2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPoll: Carson is now tied with Trump among Republican contenders.
Because the margin of error in this poll is 6%, Trump at 27% and Carson at 23% are in a statistical tie. (If another sample had been taken from the same group of voters, Carson could have been the one with 27%. The poll didn't include enough respondents to have a smaller margin of error.)
Like I've said before, Carson's going to be on the ticket somewhere. Count on it.
They think President Obama only got elected because of the color of his kin, so they look around for a black Rethug, and Carson fits the bill: he's as extremist in his views as the Rethug base. But he has a calm, quiet manner of speaking, and even a self-deprecating sense of humor, so he can seem like a nicer guy than some of the other extremists.
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/15/today-in-politics-in-new-poll-carson-pulls-up-alongside-an-idling-trump/
Mr. Carson has amassed considerable new support from Republican primary and caucus voters and is now running nearly even with Mr. Trump as their pick for the partys presidential nomination, according to a new New York Times/CBS News poll.
Far more than other Republican contenders, Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, has capitalized on his outsider message a mix of anti-establishment views, delivered in a calmer tone than Mr. Trumps, and socially conservative positions to draw voters away from rivals and leap ahead in the poll, which will be published on Tuesday. The proportion of Republican voters favoring Mr. Carson rose to 23 percent from 6 percent in the previous CBS News poll, which was taken just before the first televised Republican debate in early August. Over that same period, Mr. Trump made modest gains, to 27 percent from 24 percent.
Mr. Carson pulled at least some of his support from Republicans who are more typical political figures. Jeb Bush fell in the poll, to 6 percent, from 13 percent, and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin tumbled to 2 percent from 10 percent. No other candidates fell as much as those two, according to the poll. Mr. Carson drew more support from college graduates than Mr. Trump, while those without a college education were more likely to favor Mr. Trump.
Over all, 37 percent of Republican voters say their minds are made up about which candidate they will support as their partys presidential nominee, while 63 percent say it is still too early to say. Slightly more than half of Mr. Trumps backers say they have decided, while 46 percent said they could still switch candidates. Those who said they had made up their minds are twice as likely to support Mr. Trump over Mr. Carson. Women were less likely than men to support Mr. Trump and more likely than men to support Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)Soft-spoken, though he be, he is as crazy as Sara Palin, Louis Gohmert, and those duck calling lunatics rolled together!
--imm
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)Nay
(12,051 posts)problems and we are presented with clowns and idiots as solutions?
Darb
(2,807 posts)Republican Party we are talking about, right?
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)was because of the color of his skin.
They're proud of the few black people in their midst, like Clarence Thomas. They would happily vote for one who they thought they could use as an attack dog for their policies.
Ron Green
(9,822 posts)about Carson. They're jockeying him (ahem) into position.
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)while Trump does better among the men.
Eriteo
(22 posts)Not a "statistical" tie, not any type of tie.
Related readings:
http://jonathanturley.org/2012/10/06/the-myth-of-the-statistical-tie/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/dcd25c4f-dfe0-4e06-9a7b-61f032136db8
http://blog.elmajian.com/post/35013862987/the-us-election-is-not-statistically-tied