Axelrod: Sanders could do well at start but Clinton will get nod

[portlander23]

Sept 18 | Axelrod: Sanders could do well at start but Clinton will get nod

Sanders, Axelrod said, "is a thoroughly authentic guy." But he said someone who is a "74-year-old socialist with a Brooklyn accent" is, as an opponent for Clinton, "as good as you get."

"I think he could do very well in Iowa. He could do well in New Hampshire. These states are entirely white. The events skew to the left. It's tailor-made for Bernie," Axelrod said. But, he added, "I think it becomes a lot more difficult for (Sanders) after that when he'll be in states that are much more diverse."

Aug 11 | Five Thirty Eight: The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over

Not long ago, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders was surging. In just a few months, the Vermont senator halved Hillary Clinton’s lead in Iowa and moved to within shouting distance of her in New Hampshire. But it’s probably time to change the verb tense. No longer is Sanders surging. He has surged. From now on, picking up additional support will be more of a slog.

July 8 | Nate Cohn: Why Bernie Sanders’s Momentum Is Not Built to Last

But Mrs. Clinton still holds a huge lead among moderate and conservative Democrats — white and nonwhite alike. Whether Mr. Sanders can close the gap among these voters will determine the seriousness of his candidacy and whether he can pick up more delegates in other primaries. There aren’t many reasons to expect he will break through, and he certainly isn’t doing it yet.

June 1 | Josh Voorhees: Bernie-Mentum Is Real. Hillary Has No Reason to Worry

For much of 2015, Sanders has been mired in the single digits nationally. But as his campaign picked up steam over the past month, those numbers have taken a sharp turn skyward. According to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, from the end of May, Sanders now sits in second place with 15 percent support among likely Democratic voters.

Despite his recent polling successes and ability to pack a gymnasium, Sanders can’t become a real contender until he can actually start siphoning off support from Clinton. And, at least so far, there’s been little to no evidence that he or any other liberal can do that.

I can hardly wait for next month's headline ...

[Autumn]

1. Axelrod is wrong. Bless his heart.

[Cali_Democrat]

11. What does David Axelrod know anyways?

I mean, it's not like he's a Democratic strategist who knows how to help a candidate win the Presidency.

[nationalize the fed]

61. Except when he doesn't

UK 8 May 2015: Humiliation for Obama's election guru in his last campaign: David Axelrod sees Labour shellacked after selling them his advice for nearly $500,000 (then blames the pollsters)

High-stakes match-up between two former Obama advisers ended in defeat today for David Axelrod as the UK's Labour party was bested by the Tories



Adviser to the winning Conservative party, Jim Messina, was the brains behind U.S. President Barack Obama's successful 2012 re-election

Axelrod was chief adviser to Obama on his 2008 and 2012 campaigns

Election outcome is Axelrod's last - 'I’m done with American campaigns. Done with campaigns anywhere' - after a series of gaffes

Today he was reduced to saying 'all polling' had a problem - and Axelrod blamed the polls too saying they were a 'stark...failure'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3073694/Humiliation-Obama-s-election-guru-campaign-David-Axelrod-sees-Labour-shellacked-selling-advice-nearly-500-000-blames-pollsters.html

Axelrod's loss is Britain's gain though. Because Miliband resigned and Jeremy Corbyn now leads Labour.

Thanks Dave!

[merrily]

41. Well, wrong or deceptive. I sometimes have trouble telling the difference.

[Stardust]

2. And to think I used to admire Axelrod. Sigh. nt

[nichomachus]

3. I just love predictions. As Bill Kristol predicted...

“If Hillary Clinton gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, she’s going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her … Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single democratic primary. I’ll predict that right now.”

[Lucky Luciano]

9. "Prediction is hard - especially about the future." - Niels Bohr

[merrily]

42. I think Niels Bohr may have studied with Yogi Berra's guru.

[Lucky Luciano]

55. RIP Mr Berra! This was just a couple days before he passed! nt

[merrily]

60. Eerie.

[aidbo]

10. Bill Kristol is wrong so often! It's a wonder that even Repubs take him seriously!

from Wikipedia:

... Kristol went to work in government in 1985, serving as chief of staff to Secretary of Education William Bennett during the Reagan administration, and then as Chief of Staff to the Vice President under Dan Quayle in the George H. W. Bush administration. The New Republic dubbed Kristol "Dan Quayle's brain" when he was appointed the Vice President's chief of staff.

He was nick-named Dan Quayle's brain! Let that one sink in.

Dan.

Quayle's.

Brain.

Priceless.

[oberliner]

56. Kristol is notorious for getting every prediction wrong

It got to be almost comical after a while.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

4. That's funny.

The Sanders group needs a pinned post with a collection of linked articles he's already blown past in terms of outdoing their predictions.

Just a little something for folks to snicker at.

[restorefreedom]

37. i would love to see that. nt

[morningfog]

5. The thing that gets me is that just because Sanders has not yet

shown significant suppose with African Americans and Latinos, that he cannot ever.

They act like he's running a George Wallace campaign. It's absurd and silly. Three months ago, no one thought he'd ever even LEAD in a poll ANYWHERE. He focused on the first two states, which are larger white, but were by necessity where he must start. And he's done amazingly well there.

In many respects, he's just getting started and the county is just meeting him. And he isn't running a George Wallace campaign.

[Recursion]

20. They are much more conservative, on the whole, than white Democrats

I think that's the real race disparity here that Sanders is hitting. It's not that he isn't getting his views out, it's that the most conservative bloc of the party isn't ecstatic about the most liberal candidate.

[jfern]

6. What about Baghdad Bob or Dick Morris?

They can't be any worse at predicting than these guys.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

7. New York is diverse, so is Oregon, Washington, Mass, and California.

[aidbo]

12. Oregon is not actually very diverse.

78% white, almost 12% latino, most of the rest is Asian/pacific islander, only 1.7% African American.

[pa28]

8. Clinton's people will re-arrange the deck chairs a few times before the really nasty stuff begins.

Get ready.

[frylock]

13. From where I'm sitting, it's Hillary that started out well.

[ibegurpard]

14. Gotta love "Democrats" pissing on states

That have reliably turned out for them in recent elections. Yes what really matters are "diverse" states like South Carolina and Texas which wouldn't vote for a Democrat if their states were burning to the ground and we were begging them to let us put out the fires.

[Roy Ellefson]

28. Exactly

it amazes me that some are so quick to dismiss likely blue states in the primary process while essentially allowing states that will never even vote for our candidate to pick our candidate...I don't get it.

[Kang Colby]

15. He's right.

It won't even be close though. At this point, she is effectively the nominee. By March 2016 we are going to see a huge uptick in HRC avatars around here...mark my words.

Personally, I think Axelrod is giving Bernie too much credit. I like Bernie, but his political appeal and support reminds me of several other fringe candidates over the years. Let's focus on winning the GE and not playing out a political fantasy. The country isn't ready for Bernie.

[McCamy Taylor]

18. The primary is ready for Bernie. He brings up important issues

and he protects Clinton from attacks from the left.

[Kang Colby]

23. I agree...n/t.

[restorefreedom]

39. it is not his job to protect hillary

I know it might be hard for some here to see that people have other purposes in life other than to serve the anointed one. But Bernie has a purpose ....he is in this to win as his own candidate. Not to serve the interests of the corporate oligarchy. But how many times do we have to repeat this?

[oasis]

49. Last week, Bernie told Rachel Maddow he's surprised to have such a following.

Although I have supported Hillary from the beginning of her campaign, when Bernie first announced his candidacy, I was hopeful his message would receive the maximum possible exposure.

I'm not yet satisfied he has reached his peak.

[quickesst]

52. Hahaha...

... not around here he doesn't. Ain't no boundries off up in heah!

[Fawke Em]

36. Not mine.

I won't be lifting a finger to help another corporate candidate.

The country doesn't need another Vichy Dem.

[restorefreedom]

38. we should cancel all the primaries then

l mean, why waste all that good donor money?

[djean111]

66. As a matter of fact, that very thing was floated - why waste the money and why give the GOP

ammunition against Hillary. As if the GOP does not have ammunition against Hillary. They hate her.
The very idea of an anointing with no primary made me nauseous.

I am not an "avatar" person. But there will never be a Hillary avatar on my posts. Promise you that.

[restorefreedom]

67. wow that is truly vile

guess the power mongers will do anything to keep power.

sad and scary

[Robbins]

59. Keep telling yourself that

the real loser in GE would be with clinton not bernie.

Bernie has already exceeded all expections.

[Motown_Johnny]

63. But you thought all those other predictions were right too, didn't you?

How many times do they/you need to be proven wrong before it starts to sink in?


Pick a number and keep count. It will get there.

[Robbins]

68. Your going to be one eating words

Hilary effectivly nominee? Yeah right.Someone who is disliked heavily by members of the base and more worried about big donors than democratic primary voters?

Bernie has already exceeded all exceptions.He is doing better now than Obama was at this time in 2007.Reality check obama didn't have much black support till after he won Iowa.

We haven't had any debates yet which makes gains even better for Bernie.

Mark my words come march 2016 Bernie will be on his way to winning nomination.

Bernie has room to grow.She doesn't.

[delrem]

16. "These states are entirely white." Axelrod says.

What a putz.

[dsc]

33. he exaggerated but not by much

Iowa is 93 and New Hampshire is 95 percent white. While entirely is an exaggeration, the nation is right about 70 percent white making those states way, way, way less likely to have non white people than the nation as a whole. The nation has over 4 times as many non whites as Iowa by percentage and six times as many non whites by percentage as New Hampshire.

[McCamy Taylor]

17. Axelrod is mega-smart. If he says it (about politics) he is correct.

Much smarter than Karl Rove, for example.

[Samantha]

19. Sanders said this evening approximately 40 percent of the people still did not even know his name

I think it is too soon to be making the predictions that his surge has ended.

Sam

[Garrett78]

58. It's possible there could be another surge, but I doubt it.

I guess it's somewhat subjective in that not everyone will define "surge" the same way, but I don't think Harry Enten has been proven wrong. He wrote, in that piece at 538, "No longer is Sanders surging. He has surged. From now on, picking up additional support will be more of a slog."

That seems like a solid prediction. Enten isn't saying Sanders can't pick up additional support. He's just saying it'll be tougher and incremental.

[Ken Burch]

21. Odd that he'd assume "more diverse" states would be more conservative than NH and Iowa.

Who ever thought that liberalism or radicalism were exclusively "white things"?

I'm pretty sure Paul Robeson, Malcolm, MLK, the leadership of SNCC, Fannie Lou Hamer, Bobby Seale, Angela Davis, and Barbara Lee, to name just a few, would take issue with that.

[dsc]

34. black democrats are on average more conservative than white ones

in large part because nearly no blacks vote GOP giving us the nearly the entire political range of blacks vs the more liberal 40 percent or so of whites. Also southern white Democrats, and there are some left, are likely more conservative than the typical Iowa caucus goer.

[Ken Burch]

50. Most blacks support increased social spending, single-payer healthcare,

a significant reduction in the war budget and the abolition of the death penalty(which is understandable, since in the South, especially, the death penalty is basically state-sanctioned AfricanAmerocide).

The only things they are more conservative on(and this is changing)are LGBTQ rights and, in some cases, reproductive rights. AA's used to be much more anti-choice then most white voters.

[Ken Burch]

22. You are beginning to look like a "concern troll".

You want us to think you support Bernie, yet you keep quoting all the anti-Bernie memes out there. Where are you coming from, really?

[HooptieWagon]

30. Good question.

OP has been spamming the board with 'concern' threads, while claiming to be a Bernie supporter.

[MoveIt]

31. Trolling for sure

Maybe like a bunch of her fake posters here who claimed to be for Bernie at first, but turned against him because one of them MEAN RACIST RED COMMIE Bernie supporters gave him a sadz.

[DCBob]

24. Next month's headline: "Bernie is toast".

Bernie has done well but unless he finds a way to capture the fancy of minority voters he simply cannot win the Democratic nomination.

[portlander23]

25. We'll see how it goes

To the extent that the media covers Mr. Sanders, it's a case of moving the goal posts. He can't win. Ok he might win NH, but that's it. Ok he might win Iowa too but that's all. He's putting his efforts into more states, and he's talking to more people. If he gets an uptick in the polls with black voters, I'm sure the next headline will be he has some of the black vote but not enough.

We'll see how this plays out. Either way, I would not underestimate Mr. Sanders.

[restorefreedom]

43. "he can't possibly win"

[fredamae]

26. ohhhh Axelrod.....you poor thing.

But it is progress that he acknowledges Bernie as a candidate, no?

The level of rejection towards Sanders as a credible and viable candidate is the measurement of their willful ignorance of where the base Is. And where We're going. Silly kids!

[99Forever]

27. Don't give one shit what that jerk says.

Fuck him.

[progree]

44. Naughty naughty, says an alerter....

On Sun Sep 20, 2015, 01:22 AM an alert was sent on the following post:

Don't give one shit what that jerk says.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=605922

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Yeah, ok. This is just overly hostile and rude. Is this the kind of place we want here? Disagreement is fine! This is just pure hostility. Ugh...

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sun Sep 20, 2015, 01:30 AM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Yo alerter! We are allowed to express our opinions of public figures here. Stupid alert. Grow up.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: He is being rude to Axelrod not someone in DU.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Haha. I can't stand the poster you alerted on, but how is this hideable? This is a nasty personal alert. I hope it goes 0-7.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Language is a bit colorful, but post is OK in context of who they are talking about
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Gratuitous swearing with no redeeming value.

[beam me up scottie]

45. Wtf?

2 people voted to hide a post because of profanity?

Jesus fucking Christ.

[Warren Stupidity]

46. I was happy to serve on that jury. I was juror #1.

Jurors 6 and 7 should be ashamed of themselves.

[Hortensis]

62. How about the alerter choosing style over freedom of expression?

[HassleCat]

29. Yes, sure OK, right

More conventional wisdom about how we like to flirt with the attractive candidate, then settle down with the sensible candidate for the long term. It usually happens that way, which is why the pundits say it will happen that way again. The last time it did not happen, we got George McGovern, and the media tore him apart. Anybody remember who was elected president that time? Some guy who was Nick's son, or something like that. Anyway, it might not happen this time. The voters are capable of waking up and voting for somebody who will serve the public interest.

[TwilightGardener]

32. I'm sure Hillary once thought that a youngish black guy with only two years in the Senate, with the

middle name Hussein, and no other executive experience, was "as good as you get" for an opponent--right, David? Axelrod is a disappointment.

[Tom Rinaldo]

35. It's called "lowering expectations".

Axelrod is a smart and talented guy. He knows how to make a good case. The thing to realize though is this is exactly the worst case scenario spin case that anyone pro Hillary would ever have wanted to have to make. Explaining away how she could ever find herself in the position of possibly losing the flirt two presidential contests to a "74-year-old socialist with a Brooklyn accent". In 2008 having an African American one term Senator with an African sounding first and last name and an Islamic sounding middle name started Clinton on a tailspin that even a come from behind victor in NH couldn't correct.

Yes she is better prepared to fight a 50 state strategy this time and once again the establishment starts out behind her. But things can turn on a dime once momentum shifts.

[oasis]

40. Axelrod, Howard Dean, Joe Trippi: a trio of Dem party experts.

They've all worked deep in the trenches of national politics. While they may not believe in Hillary's superiority in embracing historical Democratic Party values, they do know a winner when they see one.

[workinclasszero]

47. Super Tuesday

Will be a cold shower for lots of people I bet.

[frylock]

48. I'm expecting to see a lot of 1000-yard stares.

[cantbeserious]

51. DA - Like DWS - Are Minions For The Political Establishment

eom

[emsimon33]

53. Well researched and presented!

Thank you!

[Divernan]

54. At 74, Bernie has a better health history than HRC

Everyone ages at different rates - and life expectancy depends on specifically identifiable factors such as weight. If Axelrod wants to throw Bernie's age out there, then HRC's health history, including her weight is fair game. I'm about HRC's age, and have struggled with my weight - and my family doc has consistently advised me of the impact of obesity on health and longevity. I take this issue seriously and have managed over the past 3 years to gradually lose 40 pounds.

Here's what the CDC has to say about it:
http://www.cdc.gov/healthyweight/effects/index.html

The Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity
People who are obese, compared to those with a normal or healthy weight, are at increased risk for many serious diseases and health conditions, including the following:

All-causes of death (mortality)
High blood pressure (Hypertension)
High LDL cholesterol, low HDL cholesterol, or high levels of triglycerides (Dyslipidemia)
Type 2 diabetes
Coronary heart disease
Stroke
Gallbladder disease
Osteoarthritis (a breakdown of cartilage and bone within a joint)
Sleep apnea and breathing problems
Some cancers (endometrial, breast, colon, kidney, gallbladder, and liver)
Low quality of life
Mental illness such as clinical depression, anxiety, and other mental disorders
Body pain and difficulty with physical functioning

ww.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/us/politics/hillary-clinton-is-discharged-from-hospital-after-blood-clot.html

Hillary Rodham Clinton, whose globe-trotting tour as secretary of state was abruptly halted last month by a series of health problems, was discharged from a New York hospital on Wednesday evening after several days of treatment for a blood clot in a vein in her head.

Mrs. Clinton, 65, was admitted to NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia hospital on Sunday after a scan discovered the blood clot. The scan was part of her follow-up care for a concussion she sustained more than two weeks earlier, when she fainted and fell, striking her head. According to the State Department, the fainting was caused by dehydration, brought on by a stomach virus. The concussion was diagnosed on Dec. 13, though the fall had occurred earlier that week.

The clot was potentially serious, blocking a vein that drains blood from the brain. Untreated, such blockages can lead to brain hemorrhages or strokes. Treatment consists mainly of blood thinners to keep the clot from enlarging and to prevent more clots from forming, and plenty of fluids to prevent dehydration, which is a major risk factor for blood clots.

Dr. Lisa Bardack of Mount Kisco, New York, released a letter stating that Mrs. Clinton has been treated for a brain concussion, blood clots in her legs and brain, thyroid gland deficiencies, and a family history of heart disease.

Hillary Clinton maintains her health by taking a thyroid hormone to stabilize the issue, the anticoagulant drug Coumadin to prevent blood clots, Vitamin B-12, and antihistamine drugs for her allergies.

Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/2302396/hillary-clintons-health-care-financial-documents-released-prove-she-is-fit-to-serve-as-president-of-the-united-states/#AuhrPKpF6K8OScYJ.99

[oasis]

57. After the 1st debate, it will be easier to sort things out.

The Biden factor, whether Chafee and Webb drop out etc.

[Matariki]

64. what is "the nod"?

It sounds like something done by one person, not a democratic election.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

65. Yes. But, what does Karnak the Magnificent say?

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Mark Twain