2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumROF: Biden Appears Ready to Join Presidential Race
Biden Appears Ready to Join Presidential RaceJoe Bidens aides have begun calling Democratic donors and supporters to suggests he is about to enter the 2016 race. They are talking about the timing of an announcement, reported the Wall Street Journal. Biden plans on making the announcement in time to be part of the October 13 Democratic debates, and to immediately begin the fundraising process.
How Bidens entry into the race will impact Bernie Sanders is unclear at this point. Bernie has been surging against Hillary over the past three months, and is significantly ahead of her in New Hampshire and Iowa, according to recent polling. However, his entry will certainly lead to much greater media focus on the Democratic race, and likely will force the DNC to hold more debates, all of which would be a very positive thing.
I'm not sure that Biden is going to get in. There's no denying that the Democratic establishment has been floating a lot of trial balloons for alternatives to Hillary Clinton, and the media would love to have a Democratic horse race (note to media: there is one, you just don't like that it's with Bernie Sanders).
If Mr. Biden should decide to enter, I'm willing to bet he'd syphon more votes from Mrs. Clinton than Mr. Sanders.
djean111
(14,255 posts)to any of the other candidates, or to Biden. i really cannot imagine, given the issues I care about, why I would do that.
Not going to happen.
RiverLover
(7,830 posts)He would be an easier corporatist to hold my nose & vote for (the lesser evil) in the GE though. He can't generate the kind of excitement Bernie is generating though to GOTV for Democrats. Biden may however attract more independents than Hillary in the GE...
I hope he gets in.
Snotcicles
(9,089 posts)I hope he isn't using tax payer aides to do that fund raising.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Hillary: Should Democrats Nominate A Candidate At Risk Of Indictment?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)and see what happens.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)She's abandoned the left of the party to Sanders and O'Malley, with Biden in there's not much space to the democratic right of center and Biden will effectively be running on the Obama administrations record and much of Obama's loyal support would go to Biden
Seems to me that would pretty much force Clinton into an even stronger bimodal positions between women's/minority rights, neo-liberal economic policy and militarism. Which may be fine with many establishment friendly super delegates, most of the financiers, the Brookings Inst, and the security establishment.
But that would really make the contrast between H> and the Left even more stark. It would likely push her to look much more attractive to international corporate interests and would likely attract even more comparisons between her and the neocons on military interventionism and US military support of SW Asian proxy wars.
I am not sure how well that would play among this cycle's primary and caucus participants who seem more interested in pressing social issues.
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)Whether that establishment candidate is Hillary, or Biden, or Webb...I DON'T CARE because none of them are on my political radar for 2016.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)...urging Biden to enter the race. That is 100% a reflection on Hillary's campaign...there is the very real worry that she's heading towards another implosion like in '08.
So what happens if Biden enters? His positions are very close to Hillarys, and he'll have many of the same large donors...they'll pull the plug on Hillary and switch their $ to Biden. Hillary of course will stay in till the bitter end, in a scorched earth retreat. She will retain some support, from those who worship a personality or are just wanting to support a woman. Those agreeing with her policies or just wanting to back an 'electable' candidate probably go to Biden. Most of Sanders support stays, as they are strongly in favor of his policies, where they differ. A handful of Sanders support could be ABC, and might drift towards Biden.
So, I think the Dem Party will end up with 3 candidates essentially tied, which will suck any remaining wind out of O'Malley and the others campaigns. With a strong contender emerging from her own corporatist faction of the Party, and losing donors and delegates to Biden, Hillary isn't going to be able to use much ammunition on Sanders. A corporatist civil war helps Sanders immensely. He will win the popular vote for the nomination unless TPTB can convince Hillary to bow out gracefully and back Biden (like that'll happen... ).
Anyway, this sure will be an interesting primary...Go Bernie!
artislife
(9,497 posts)That Dems have tried/are trying to enlist into the primary races. Warren and Biden, both in answer to a Hillary run.
That just speaks volumes about how electable she is.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)...for different reasons. Warren supporters urging her b/c they weren't happy with status quo. I think they've mostly gotten behind Bernie.
Biden supporters largely want the status quo, like Hillarys position, but are worried Hillary will blow it again.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)If he enters, I think it benefits Sanders. He's more likely to split the support for Clinton.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)LWolf
(46,179 posts)I don't think it will work out well for them.
azmom
(5,208 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)MoveIt
(399 posts)We have already got a corporatist running, kthx bai
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)Barney Frank: Joe Biden 'doesn't look presidential'
From: http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/us_politics/2015/09/barney_frank_joe_biden_doesnt_look_presidential
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)Bob Gates did it, too. Biden must have made some enemies, which surprises me because he seems a likable guy.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)thats all.
MBS
(9,688 posts)disappointing remark from Barney.
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)we've had a female president.
Gloria
(17,663 posts)It is not all that great, big Pharma, security, etc.not to mention that crap with Anita Hill.
Toss in the plagiarism, groping, gaffes, etc....
LIke the guy, but he hasn't won the nomination before, so why now? He's been all over the place esp. after the loss of his son. It's time for him to enjoy life and go out on a high, rather than being scrutinized to death.
HRC will have to do it, and I don't think she relishes doing it, but she will do it because it's politics and it's fair game.
Those "donors"...who are they? I'd like to know ....if they Biden would be "cleaner" than HRC, they are delusional...
portlander23
(2,078 posts)I concur on Mr. Biden's policy record, and I concur that he seems like a nice guy. I do however hope he enters the race because I assume he would syphon off votes from Mrs. Clinton and focus more media attention on the race, both of which would be beneficial for Mr. Sanders.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)eom.
MBS
(9,688 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)I think it would benefit Bernie significantly if Biden got in. But on a human level, based on what I've seen of him he just doesn't look ready for it. And even though I do not support his policies and I do not want to see a third term of the Obama administration, on a human level I sympathize with him greatly on his recent loss and would like to see him enjoy some well earned retirement instead of putting himself through something like this.
and again, I say that as somebody who realizes that his entry into the race would probably help Bernie. But ultimately it's his decision, and I hope it remains his decision and not the decision of the party elites.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)Bernie supporters are very passionate. I know I have no plans of switching my support.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)but as far as Sanders supporters go, nope. They won't switch to Biden as they see Joe as a nice guy and all but he is also part of the problem. Biden doesn't have the ability to gain indy and republican voters either, something which Bernie does and has been doing.
ChiciB1
(15,435 posts)Scruffy1
(3,256 posts)The Iraq war vote was the last chance for Hillary and the last chance for Biden, too. I like Joe and in many ways he's a better candidate than Hillary, but I could not vote for him in the primary or general election.
His family leave act was great thing and I thank him for it, and I can pretty much understand why he went with the bankers on bankruptcy reform, but to authorize and idiot like W to start a war on information that we all knew was a lie is crime against humanity that I can't forgive. The old we didn't start, merely authorized it BS ain't gonna make it. All this crap shows me that both of their ambitions are bigger than their conscious.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)underthematrix
(5,811 posts)and I hope the story is true. I think this is so interesting because most people think he would get in because of HRC's weakened numbers at the state level. But he could also be getting in because of Bernie's surging numbers at the state level. It may be neither of these two possibilities. I think the HRC camp understands that the candidate at the top of the ticket has to help elect people DOWN ticket. HRC needs a Congress that will support a Dem agenda, some of which is very progressive. We also need to get DEM govs elected and try to take back as many state houses as possible.
While a progressive policy agenda that deals with income equaity is great, it must be considered in the context of the current political landscape. So a DEM nominee like Bernie who is far far left of the center would have a huge impact on our ability to elect Dems down ticket. Most of the Dems running are not as far left as Bernie. That's a problem. No one disagrees with Bernie's policy agenda but our goal is to get Dems elected not just in the White House but in Congress and at the state level. I don't think Bernie can get that done.
Then we have HRC. I don't understand the problem with HRC. Does she have physical limitations from the fall she took that have not been revealed? Is it something her husband has done that might get us mired down in scandal after she is elected? Is it something about her email problem that hasn't been disclosed? I thought this was going to be really simple. Support and vote for HRC and that's it. I didn't expect all of the crazy. I don't like HRC as a person. Her body language turns me off. But I was going to support her because her folks supported PBO and I wanted to return the favor. But now we have the crazy.
So my guy, Job Biden is thinking about jumping in. This makes very happy. I can't see Biden getting in unless he was sure of getting the nomination AND WINNING the general election. Those are the two things he has to be able to do and of course campaign for other Dems.
The whole thing is strange and weird and doesn't make sense. A real mystery.