Here's Why The South Poses A Huge Problem For Bernie Sanders

[workinclasszero]

Here's Why The South Poses A Huge Problem For Bernie Sanders

He needs to pick up more support among nonwhite voters to have any chance of competing with Clinton.

Samantha Lachman
Staff Reporter, The Huffington Post

Posted: 09/19/2015 11:33 PM EDT

WASHINGTON -- Though Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is leading former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in successive polls of Democratic voters in New Hampshire and Iowa, his campaign faces significantly more difficult terrain outside those two states.

The problem for Sanders is a demographic one. In the South, where a number of states hold primaries in February and the first half of March, Clinton still has a lock on nonwhite Democrats. (A great table from FiveThirtyEight illustrates how Vermont and New Hampshire are especially unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate writ large, since the Democratic voters there are predominantly white and liberal.)

The demographics of base voters in Southern states could make all the difference for Clinton, whose team is already building a "firewall" to wrap up the nomination soon after Iowa and New Hampshire.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-nonwhite-voters_55fae616e4b0fde8b0cd427f?nuqv9529

[Admiral Loinpresser]

1. Absolutely false!

HRC has no lock on voters of any stripe. But I hope she continues to cop her 2008 front runner attitude. But as the change accelerates, get ready for that dog whistle!

[virtualobserver]

3. David Brock must have found a new person to send helpful emails to at HuffPost

I do appreciate the daily DU updates on the various types of people that Bernie is incapable of reaching with his straight talk.

[Recursion]

6. But surely you have to at least see that the South is going to be hard for Sanders in the primaries

right?

I mean you can actually see that pretty basic challenge he's facing, yeah?

[artislife]

7. Yup.

There is a lot of work to be done, the AA vote is solidly pro Clinton.

But I think he has a chance to chip away at the Latino votes (there's a lot due to agriculture) and the dissatisfied white vote besides doing more to garner votes from the AAs. It is a challenge, but he seems to have the stamina.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

22. Yes.

It's not easy to take on the Clinton brand out of obscurity. But the dynamics have already changed. The demographic data I've seen indicates July was a hiccup as Bernie acquired some bad press regarding AAs. By August most of the newly acquired unfavorables were converted to "undecided." So the BLM encounters have already been converted to a positive. Black Millenials are responding to Bernie's message nation wide. It's certainly true in my town.

Of course HRC still has a big lead, but it is shrinking every month. Bernie has put "yooge" resources into South Carolina. Bernie has the best message, imo. He truly loves the people in a way that is so rare, I grow more astounded by this unique man every day. So I am very confident we can win. No great movement is built in a day.

Finally, the beauty of Bernie's message is that it is directly related to OWS. OWS was pan racial and egalitarian. It helped white people get just a taste of police brutality, enough to think differently about the experiences of PoC. I believe that was part of why many marches in the wake of Ferguson were pan racial. We are converting OWS into a political movement. That is why I believe the Bernie support is becoming more pan racial every month.

[DCBob]

19. Not a lock but a strong hold.

From the article..

"Minorities were actually pretty loyal to Hillary in 2007," he noted. "They only began to break away when they saw Obama start winning -- and realized that he might actually have a good chance to become the first African-American president. This time, it's more difficult to see a full-scale defection, unless of course Clinton were indicted or something on that scale. The Clinton name is still a revered one among minorities."

Fair or not that's what Bernie is up against.

[peacebird]

26. "They only began to break away when they saw Obama start winning" as they will with Bernie

[DCBob]

29. But would they break away for an old white jewish socialist guy from a white Yankee state?

I doubt it.

[peacebird]

31. Break away from Hillary for an honest, passionate man who easily swats down concern about

Being a democratic socialist. Yes, they will.

And i find all the 'concern' posts by Hillary supporters disingenius at best. Bernie is on fire, and will continue to generate more and more enthusiasm as time goes by. Hillary generates a lot of $$$ from a small pool of rich people. Bernie collected well over a million in two days after one of Hillary's surrogates attacked him. Her usual dirty tricks won't work in this election cycle.

But hey, thanks for your 'concern'

[DCBob]

32. Not concerned at all.. just stating my opinion.

When I see his polling numbers over 20% with AA voters then I might begin to believe he has a chance.

[Fumesucker]

2. Hmm.. Building a "firewall" indicates that there might be a fire somewhere

It would not surprise me if Sanders winds up with considerably more Southern white votes than conventional wisdom would predict.

[artislife]

8. This is the kicker

Could he be the one to bring the dixiecrats "home"?

[HereSince1628]

20. Proportional assignment of delegates sort of works against firewalls

To understand the quality of the possible firewall it really requires understanding how each state's rules for assignment work.

[YoungDemCA]

35. There aren't many Dixiecrats left

Most Southern whites vote Republican these days. The Dixiecrats were from a different time, different circumstances, different people.

[underthematrix]

4. It's gonna be really tough for Bernie to capture the deep south.

HRC won the 2008 West Virginia by some huge margin. That's different crowd. I hear PBO is gonna weigh in on the primary race and may endorse one of the candidates. That will have a huge impact everywhere.

[Aerows]

10. Interesting that you say that

I've heard more people talking about Bernie in my Deep South area positively than just about anybody except for the nuts who want Trump.

Clinton and Jeb? The vitriol and anger against them as "establishment" candidates comes out in waves.

The beltway bunch is out of touch with reality beyond the borders of DC.

[underthematrix]

11. I think Bernie and Trump are attracting the same coin but different sides

white, angry, resentful and uneducated. I said this before the primary season started that Hillary's biggest problem will be poor and working class whites. They loved her when the black guy was running and now it's a different story. Hillary really is one of them.

[Aerows]

12. Well isn't that special.

You just characterized every Southerner as white, angry, resentful and uneducated.

I was unaware that displaying such traits was my hallmark on DU.

[underthematrix]

13. DU is a very tiny segment of the voting population. Most voters do not

spend time on political message boards. It is true many of the white vote will be as I described. This is not a secret. Many cable outlets talk about this all the time. They use dog whistle such as real Americans, working Americans, working class Americans, etc. The point is this is going to be the most problematic group for the Democratic party - for all candidates. I mentioned HRC by name because she's the frontrunner. But yeah, this is not a joke. I'm not trying to be rude or funny. Some DUers are engaged in magical thinking about their preferred candidate. They are in denial about what it will be like to govern in a highly polarized political environment in which the MSM markets lies, hate, fear, paranoia and violent and fact-free speech. No matter which Democrat ends up in the WH this is the crap they will have to deal with.

[Aerows]

14. I agree with one thing

Some DUers are engaged in magical thinking.

[Uncle Joe]

16. It isn't just D.U. the Internet is turning toward Bernie.

Bernie Sanders sees massive boost in online support over one week as presidential campaign revs up

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/bernie-sanders-sees-massive-boost-online-support-week-article-1.2328132

Legion of Tech Volunteers Lead a Charge for Bernie Sanders

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/04/us/politics/bernie-sanders-presidential-campaign-tech-supporters.html

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251602173

WASHINGTON -- The presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) raised more than $1.2 million in the past two days off of an attack launched by a group supportive of Hillary Clinton.

[underthematrix]

18. I know it seems great from where he started but it's not enough

He has to do much much better. President Obama is a hard act to follow.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

23. Are you aware that he is way ahead

of President Obama at September, 2007? The charts show it clearly in NH and IA. And no insurgent challenger has ever taken both IA and NH. Not Perot, not Dean, not McCain, not Kucinich, not Obama. Bernie seems to be ahead of history to me.

[underthematrix]

37. President Obama won Iowa and lost New Hampshire and

then as you know won the nomination. I think the road to the nomination is very hard for Bernie because he's not going to get the superdelegates and he would need those to win the nomination. I didn't say he couldn't do it, I'm saying it's going to be very very difficult.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

38. If Bernie doesn't get the Superdelegates in the same fashion

as Obama did under similar circumstances, that's a declaration of war.

[dsc]

39. No he isn't

Obama had vastly more endorsements at this point in 2007. Clinton was losing to Edwards in Iowa at this point with Obama a quite close third. Only in New Hampshire, which Obama lost, is Sanders doing better now than Obama was then.

[HereSince1628]

21. So Hillary and BLM have problems with the same but somehow demographically different

pool of Bernie Sanders supporters?

[chervilant]

27. You may "think" that,

but it would be much more relevant if you would post results of legitimate research or polls to substantiate your "thinking."

(From someone in the South who doesn't fit your stultifying generalization...)

[peacebird]

28. Can you provide a link for that assertion? For Obama to weigh in before the nominee is chosen?

[Fawke Em]

36. I don't think sitting presidents should ever endorse until the general election.

That's just unpresidential, quite frankly.

He should be doing his job, is my thinking, even if he is paying attention to the primary campaigns.

[cheapdate]

5. Lot's of opinions out there. No one expected it would be easy, least of all Sanders himself.

[Aerows]

9. I live in the deep south

Bernie, believe it or not, is catching on here in my area. What a lot of "Hillary is inevitable" folks don't seem to understand is that many of Bernie's supporters talk about his platform and his policies as we go about our daily lives.

I'm proud to have a candidate that even here, has policies that ignite hope among voters. It takes absolutely nothing to discuss the bailouts, raising the SS cap, and medicare for all. 9 times out of 10, even in podunk people are interested. Bernie has solid, straight forward, concrete plans.

That's why it is so easy for supporters to get other people in our daily lives interested in him as a candidate. You know what he stands for, and how he thinks we can get there.

If you want to know who is having trouble in the Deep South, it isn't the candidate that has been upfront, doesn't equivocate on what he believes in and has a blueprint to get there.

So far this evening you have complained that Bernie has a problem with Muslims, which got shut down early, and now you are falsely projecting what you think Southerners believe.

Not today. I am more than willing to step up to that plate because being a Southerner is my wheelhouse.

[peacebird]

30. I think they are still hoping to discourage the Bernie folk, acting all 'concerned' about Bernie

and his electability problems....

Reeks of desperation really

[Garrett78]

15. Red states determine who the Democratic Party nominee will be.

It's interesting that states the Republican nominee will undoubtedly win next November make up a vast majority of the early (through the first week of March) primaries.

[DCBob]

17. Latest polling from SC bears this out.. Bernie only gets 4% of the AA vote.

This is from the CBS/YouGov poll Sep 3-10.



He can't win with 4% of the African American vote.

[left-of-center2012]

24. Here's Why The South Poses A Huge Problem For Hillary

Gefilte fish

[Motown_Johnny]

25. I thought it was the fake southern accent.

So many vulnerabilities, only a couple billion bucks for the (R)s to spend.

[Bluenorthwest]

33. It does not surprise me that a minority candidate would have to work hard in the South....

It does surprise me that Lachman and her cohort are proud of that bias. Of course Lachman is one of those writers who casually speaks of non whites having 'a lock on them' without considering the nature of the verbiage....

[YoungDemCA]

34. PoC are a significant part of the Democratic voter base, especially in the South

where whites are...ermm...really not inclined to vote Democratic these days.

It's no surprise that the Democratic voter base votes for Democrats.