What Is Taking Joe Biden So Long? Is he this unsure, or does he actually have a plan?

[Purveyor]

Joe Biden is still thinking. The vice president’s self-imposed summer deadline for deciding whether to enter the Democratic primary will lapse this week. In an interview with the Catholic America magazine, Biden described his continued ambivalence: “It’s just not there yet and it may not get there in time to make it feasible to be able to run and succeed, because there are certain windows that will close. But if that’s it, that’s it. It’s not like I can rush it.”

At the same time, prominent Democrats think he’s essentially in the race. “Top Democrats increasingly believe Vice President Joe Biden is going to enter the presidential race, setting up a battle with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination,” reports the Hill. The Biden camp, for its part, is cagey on its plans for an announcement. “Various deadlines have been floated,” reports Politico. “End of summer, Oct. 1, the first Democratic debate on Oct. 13, the Iowa Jefferson-Jackson dinner on Oct. 24. But none of these is looking like a hard deadline. Neither are any of the cutoff dates for getting his name on state ballots.”

This all raises a question: What, exactly, is Biden doing?

Right now, Hillary Clinton is completely dominant. Even with her email scandal and unprecedented decline in favorability and popularity, she leads the national Democratic field—including Biden—by double digits. Clinton has 44 percent support in the Democratic primary, to 26 percent for Bernie Sanders and just over 20 percent for the vice president. She trails Sanders in New Hampshire but holds solid leads in Iowa and South Carolina.

Most importantly, she’s winning endorsements from party elites and interest groups. Last week, she won endorsements from New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, and the state’s chapter of the National Education Association. She also has two surrogates from Sanders’ home state of Vermont: Gov. Peter Shumlin and former Gov. Howard Dean. And on Tuesday, she got a big endorsement from the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America, a major union with more than half a million members. Overall, she has an unprecedented lead in the “endorsement primary,” with support from dozens of senators, governors, and members of Congress. Voters are debating the Clinton campaign, but the party infrastructure has largely decided.

Now, none of this means Clinton is destined to win the Democratic primary. As with everyone who runs for president, there’s always a nonzero chance for catastrophic collapse, from an indictment over her private email server to some unforeseen and fatal blow to her campaign. But if the evidence means anything, then the most likely outcome—by far—is an eventual Clinton win.


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http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/09/joe_biden_is_taking_a_long_time_to_decide_about_running_for_president_is.html

[NV Whino]

1. He won't enter unless Hillary tanks

He is Hillary lite, and could easily take her place. But running against her would siphon votes from her.

[tularetom]

2. It's getting to the point where voters no longer care whether he runs or not

If he has to fiddle fart around this long, he doesn't really want the job.

And we don't really want a president who takes months to make decisions.

The DNC is going to have to look for yet another hero as the Hillary Clinton campaign slowly disappears down the crapper.

[Daemonaquila]

7. ^^ This

If a candidate wants the job, they run, and get their campaign going fast and hard.

We don't need someone in the race who's there only because other people want an alternative "in case Hillary tanks." Or because they might kind-of want the presidency but they don't want to get in someone else's way. It's time for Joe to officially bow out, and for the DNC to stop looking for alternatives whose names aren't Bernie Sanders.

[NCTraveler]

3. I think the logical guess is he is keeping an eye on Hillary.

I don't think he can enter unless people start jumping ship from team Hillary. Hillary has one of the strongest political networks ever seen in this country and Sanders is building his daily. Many of the top players are working for Hillary or Sanders. Sanders, with more money, is attracting more of them every week. I really think Biden needs some of the talent currently possessed by those two, mainly Hillary. He has to be ready to get a campaign moving almost overnight. There aren't as many people out there who can make these things happen like some thing. They aren't simply a dime a dozen.

[Daemonaquila]

4. What's taking him so long, is that he really isn't into it.

And that's why he should stay out of it. No matter who tries to get him to run.

If he isn't hungry to be president, he needs to stay out and let the chips fall where they may. All he can be is a spoiler. If Hillary tanks, his job, and the job of all the Dems, is to get Bernie to the White House. It is NOT to jump in as a spoiler, a late-in-the-game affable Hillary substitute, to ensure that a real left-winger doesn't become the Democratic candidate. Biden jumping in late is a losing strategy in every respect. It's time to put all the "When will Biden annouce? Why won't Biden announce?" stuff to bed, and understand that we have 2 major candidates and 2 minor candidates for the nomination, and get on with it.

[Recursion]

5. Keeping his head down until the field is a little easier to see

It's still really early.

[workinclasszero]

6. Hes not running

Lots of Bernie fans wish he would no doubt. They think he would split Hillary's supporters down the middle and make Bernie competitive nationally and I think that might happen if he did.

But does Joe really want to go against the top candidate in his party and be a spoiler for a guy that's not even a democrat?

I can't see it.

I don't think he will and as soon as Joe makes that clear I think Hillary gets at least 60 to 70% of the Joe voters making her the runaway favorite for the democratic nomination.

Well she already is but her margin of victory would be even more impressive.

[aspirant]

8. Why announce,

he's getting solid exposure in most polls and media, nobody's scrutinizing his political career, he's free from a rugged campaign schedule and as Hillary falls he freely inherits support.

He's just sitting back in a comfy lounge chair watching the show go on in front of him. He has a heart-felt excuse with his son's death so he is free from pressure. This could be the absolute dream campaign.

[aidbo]

9. I don't think he'll run.

I think he'll announce an announcement, and then come out and say he's not running and throw his endorsement to Hillary.

Probably right before the first debate.

[Sunlei]

10. He has until 10/15? slate knows the rules. He promised his son he would look into it and he is.

[pscot]

11. At his age, a 4 year commitment

to anything is a big fucking deal.

[ram2008]

12. He's waiting for Hillary to tank a little bit more...

You don't want to be the guy that de-rails the person who was going to be the first woman President, rather, you wait for her to de-rail herself and then jump in.

Biden is waiting for a few things:

1) The debate: After the debate there will probably be a bit of movement in the polls. If Hillary has a 'meh' performance and Bernie starts climbing in the polls pulling ahead of Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire and coming to within 10 nationally, then a narrative will start developing that Clinton is in big trouble.

2) After that narrative develops Clinton will then have to deal with another cycle of negative press coverage around October 22nd when she testifies in front of the Benghazi panel. She'll probably perform well there, but the imagery will not be the best and again it will probably bring up the issue of trust in the media for the next few days following that. If she bungles her testimony, which I highly doubt, then she'll be finished.

3) The drip drop of e-mail gate. Now that the FBI has been able to recover Hillary's emails there is a possibility that they've found some things that could sink her candidacy. I.E: Clinton foundation funding in exchange for State department favors, or her not handing over every e-mail related to her work even though she claimed she did.

So there are 3 windows for Biden to enter if he chooses. My guess would be after the first debate or after the Benghazi panels when polls come out showing Hillary faltering.

[magical thyme]

15. ^^^ this, exactly.

He's just biden' his time (sorry) waiting for the right moment. October will be a very interesting month between the debates and the congressional testimony against the backdrop of drip, drip, drip.

[SheilaT]

13. Biden isn't going to run.

Why he hasn't officially announced that is anyone's guess. Maybe he's enjoying the attention he's getting right now. Maybe he's too preoccupied with other things, including the death of his son, to care very much.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

14. He's going to run as the "Not as bad as Hillary and Not as radical as Bernie" candidate.

He's letting Hillary continue to become a more vulnerable candidate in the GE and offer himself as more electable than either her and Bernie.

He's a politician with all that that implies.

I think when he does announce it will become a 3 way race with he and Hillary splitting the Decaf Dem vote giving Bernie more of a chance.

[99Forever]

16. Best. guess.

Waiting for Clinton to finish imploding.

Won't matter a bit. Ol Joe has some real shit in his history. We the People won't settle for Republican Lite.

[bigwillq]

17. He's free to run, I just hope he doesn't.

No more Biden.