Fivethirtyeight: Bobby Jindal could win Iowa

[twii]

From the awesome political website fivethirtyeight, we get this gem today:

"I’m not sure Jindal benefits from Scott Walker’s recent exit from the Republican race, exactly, but I do think the Louisiana governor is a sleeper pick to win the Iowa caucuses."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bobby-jindal-could-still-win-iowa/

[monmouth4]

1. Nate has seriously lost it.....n/t

[HooptieWagon]

2. Sleeper.....translation:

In his dreams.

[tularetom]

3. fivethirtyeight has sunk to the level of reading tea leaves

Jindal couldn't be elected dog catcher in Bumfuck, LA. No way he could win Iowa caucuses or anything else.

Bookmark this link and next time you read that fivethirtyeight predicts that Bernie Sanders can't be elected president, read it.

They have lost whatever credibility they had.

[frylock]

7. done..

Bobby fuckin Jindal?!!

[Trajan]

4. WTF?

Did his cat tell him to say this?

I think it actually said 'window', in which he meant to open that damned window over there, not 'Jindal' ...

What a maroon!

[hifiguy]

8. I can't imagine a cat being a fan of Booby.

[jfern]

17. Harry Enten is about at Dick Morris levels of political predictions

[hifiguy]

6. And I might be able to flap my arms and fly to the moon.

[Robbins]

9. I tell you

Nate silver has lost it since NYT bought fivethirtyeight.

[cheapdate]

12. Don't read too much into the article's title.

According to the article, the latest polling on net favorability in Iowa has Jindal forth, behind Carson, Fiorina, and Rubio. The point of the piece was more to just talk about the Iowa caucuses in general, than to present an argument for Jindal's winning -- which is said to be only a "possibility" and is further tempered with the statement, "Of course, that’s not the same thing as winning the GOP nomination."

Nate Silver is as solid as they come in the game of predicting future voting.

[HooptieWagon]

10. He should have stayed with sports.

Gramen artificiosum odi.

Lex clavatonis designati rescindenda est.

[Vinca]

11. I've got a better chance of winning Iowa. Sheesh.

[dsc]

13. Apparently none of you all read the article

He makes some points and it should be noted that Nate Cohn is the one who brought this up in the first place.

[ram2008]

14. Same guy who said Bernie surge was over and Clinton will win NH

No credibility; he measures who wins based on "endorsements" lol. FiveThirtyEight is crap now.

Bobby Jindal has no chance in Iowa, the main reason being that the Repub voters probably think he's a muslim just because of the way he looks.

[rurallib]

15. Jindal could pick up his own, Perry's, Walker's, Gilmore's, Pataki's and Santorum's support

and still have 0.

[jfern]

16. 538 has been a total joke this primary

It's amazing how bad this prediction that Webb would be the anti-Hillary is.

Who matches that profile?

Webb, for one. He has been both a Democrat and Republican. Maybe Brian Schweitzer, the former Montana governor who mixes liberal and conservative positions and is not a fan of the Washington, D.C., establishment. A candidate like Joe Biden, who has been in Washington for over 40 years — probably not.

Meanwhile, more liberal candidates like Dean, Warren and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont match the anti-establishment part of the equation. They may, however, be too liberal to take advantage of Clinton’s “weakness” among moderate and conservative voters.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/casting-the-ideal-challenger-to-hillary-clinton/

So, even though both Webb and Hillary are running, Hillary + Webb < Biden + Sanders in the polls

[oberliner]

19. That article was written by a 24 year old "analyst"

For what that is worth.

[Garrett78]

18. Too many social conservative nuts with whom he's competing.

The article mentions that Huckabee and Santorum have each won the Iowa Caucus with late surges. And that's a worthwhile point. But several similar social conservative nuts, including Huckabee, are currently ahead of Jindal in Iowa polling. There's way too much competition for Jindal to win. Carson, Cruz and Fiorina are all polling much better. As mentioned, Huckabee is also polling better. Even Santorum could overtake Jindal given that he once won the Iowa Caucus.

[oberliner]

20. By the same author of: The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over (Aug 11)

Not long ago, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders was surging. In just a few months, the Vermont senator halved Hillary Clinton’s lead in Iowa and moved to within shouting distance of her in New Hampshire. But it’s probably time to change the verb tense. No longer is Sanders surging. He has surged. From now on, picking up additional support will be more of a slog.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-bernie-sanders-surge-appears-to-be-over/

Wouldn't take this young man too seriously.

[Garrett78]

22. I'm not sure he's been proven wrong.

"No longer is Sanders surging. He has surged. From now on, picking up additional support will be more of a slog."

I guess it's somewhat subjective (in that one person might define "surge" differently than someone else), but I don't think Enten is necessarily wrong. He didn't say Sanders wouldn't pick up additional support, just that it would be tougher and incremental.

Anyway, it's good that you recognized that Enten is the author of that article and the one in the OP. Those who are posting comments about Nate Silver and 538 as a whole are clearly not paying attention to who's writing what. I frequently post links, but I'm learning that most don't bother to click on them.

[aidbo]

21. .

[TeamPooka]

23. Isn't 538 busy number crushing post season baseball stats right now? nt