Another National Poll to end the week - Ipsos/Reuters (weekly)

[kenn3d]

Population 1,582 Adults
Margin of Error ±2.8 percentage points
Polling Method Internet
Source Ipsos/Reuters

2016 National Democratic Primary
Asked of 608 Democrats
Joe Biden (D) 15% (-3 since last Ipsos/Reuters poll)
Lincoln Chafee (D) 0%
Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (-6 since last Ipsos/Reuters poll)
Andrew Cuomo (D) 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 0%
Martin O'Malley (D) 2%
Bernie Sanders (D) 30% (+5 since last Ipsos/Reuters poll)
Jim Webb (D) 0%
Wouldn't vote 10%

This drops the HuffPolster (National) spread again to 16.1

[Trajan]

1. Tick ...

Tock ...

[cantbeserious]

2. "I Believe In The Good Things Coming" - Go Bernie Go

[Wilms]

11. That was great!

Thanks.

[cantbeserious]

19. You Are Welcome - Hope You Enjoy This

[upaloopa]

3. Now they are adding Andrew Cuomo?

Trying to dilute Hillary's support. Funny if you need to have non contenders to help you close in on Hillary you sure the hell are disparate!

[redwitch]

5. I live in NY and Andrew Cuomo isn't popular with anyone I know.

I have no idea why they added him into this poll. Makes no sense to me at all.

[aidbo]

6. Floating some other candidates? See if anyone else resonates w/ voters.

That's just speculation though.

[BlueWaveDem]

9. I'm from NY also and would love to see Gillibrand run for POTUS one day.

She's wonderful.

[redwitch]

14. I think Kirsten will run some day.

[kenn3d]

7. Sorry... all the same candidates. No Conspiracy

Sorry to disabuse any conspiracy theories... all the same candidates as in prior Ipsos/Reuters polls:

Last Week
Asked of 642 Democrats
Joe Biden (D) 18%
Lincoln Chafee (D) 0%
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Andrew Cuomo (D) 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 1%
Martin O'Malley (D) 0%
Bernie Sanders (D) 25%
Jim Webb (D) 1%
Wouldn't vote 8%

[Motown_Johnny]

12. It is only 2%, even if all of that went to Hillary she would be -4%

And Bernie is +5%

Either way, he is up about the same that she is down give or take 1% (rounded). That is well inside the margin of error either way.

So from this poll it looks like Hillary has lost about the same amount that Bernie has picked up.

[left-of-center2012]

25. Trying to dilute Hillary's support.

Can't blame him for her numbers when he's at only 2%
Andrew Cuomo (D) 2%

[randys1]

4. The rightwing cabal, Karl Rove, etal, are working day and night to destroy

Hillary.

the only question is, if Bernie manages the nomination, can he win?

Hope so....the alternative is pure hell on earth

[Motown_Johnny]

13. Rove and his minions have not even started yet.

Don't kid yourself. The general will be much worse than this is.

[thereismore]

8. Is the surge over yet? Hello?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

10. Still liking those trend lines.

But I'm still impatient, too. I was hoping to see Bernie pass the 30% mark by the end of September, not just hit it. Sigh.

[virtualobserver]

26. exposure to Bernie leads to support for Bernie

the first debate will tell us a lot about where this race is really headed.

I think that Bernie is going to report about $20 million for this quarter......he needs to get his loyal donor number past 1 million.

[Godhumor]

15. Just posted a thread on Reuters, finally, if you're interested

And it was 608 respondents on the Democratic side, by the way. The 1,582 was full sample including republicans, etc.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251623009

[kenn3d]

20. Thanks Godhumor

Thanks Godhumor,

The Democratic sample size of 608 was clearly posted in my OP. Does this effect the reported MoE, or are you saying the poll is meaningless?
Huffpollster routinely includes these weekly Ipsos/Reuters numbers in their aggregation and I can assure you that I don't specifically endorse any poll/pollster over another. I only follow the aggregate numbers reported by the major polling sites. I tend to discount the internet, IVR, and automated polls but I don't have your experience in statistical method.

I'm still hoping to read your explanation of the HuffPollster compositing method as compared to RCP or any others.
RealClearPolitics (which does not include many of these internet polls) currently calculates a smaller spread between Clinton and Sanders than HuffPollster does.



Peace

[Godhumor]

24. Oops, didn't see you had posted the full breakdown in your thread

Anyway, the 1000+ and MoE doesn't apply to the Democratic portion.

I know you don't accept one poll over another; this just happened to be the catalyst for me to finally write something about Reuters.

And I agree with discounting internet polls. Strangely, though, it is the internet polls that have driven some of the difference between Pollster and RCP. Internet polls recently have had Clinton doing a bit higher numerically than traditional polls, which is a bit counterintuitive. If you play with the Pollster chart, select internet polls only to see that spread and then do the same with others selected but internet turned off, at least a few days ago, the internet spread favored Clinton a bit more than other sources (Haven't checked to see if that has changed with the inclusion of the new Reuters poll).

Explaining what Pollster does is a bit more involved than RCP, and I will try to get to soon. However, I am going to wait for things to settle down a bit in GDP first, as I have been contributing to some of the mutual rancor currently underway. I would prefer to write up the post when maybe more people would be willing to read one of my threads.

By the way, you're one of my more admired posters in here. You try to stay factual in your assertions and explain positions with analysis. That gets a big from me.

[LWolf]

16. .

[HereSince1628]

17. Good for Sanders, I don't look at POLLSTER much have you noticed how

THE numbers for Biden and Clinton moves are synchronized ?

I just followed that from Jan 2013 to the movements better detailed since Jan 2915, they aren't quite mirror images but every move in Biden is paralleled by a move in Clinton.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

18. Huh. Do you have a link? I was just looking for this poll, and didn't find it in the

links I was checking. I was obviously looking in the wrong place, but it would be helpful to be able to look at the original article.

[kenn3d]

21. Sure Erich

Here's the link to the Ipsos/Reuters poll:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-22797

And here's the HuffPollster Chart:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

All the links to their included polls are in the table beneath the chart.


Hope this is helpful.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

23. Thanks muchly. nt

[PDittie]

22. These pollsters shouldn't have

Gillibrand and Cuomo in them at all. What's up with that?

They also should have included Lawrence Lessig. None of these changes would affect the result much, but that 2% for Cuomo is just ridiculous.

[dae]

27. Lovin the numbers/Trend lines! Thanks

for sharing.