2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPew Research Poll: Obama 51 - Romney 41
Romney's Personal Image Remains Negative
Obama Leads Nationwide, But Closer Race in Swing States
By a 52% to 37% margin, more voters say they have an unfavorable than favorable view of Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted prior to Romneys recent overseas trip, represents the sixth consecutive survey over the past nine months in which his image has been in negative territory. While Romneys personal favorability improved substantially between March and June as Republican voters rallied behind him after the primary season ended his image has again slipped over the past month.
http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/02/romneys-personal-image-remains-negative/
If this keeps up perhaps this will influence the Congressional Races. If Obama beats Romney by more than 5%, I could see the Democrats retaking the House of Representatives.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)contrary to the common Republican assertion that it was Rasmussen. Rasmussen was close in 2008, but they were way off in 2010, with many of their polls being 10 or more points off and one of them even being 40 points off.
Rasmussen=garbage Republican biased poll.
Pew=quality poll.
Translation=Obama kicking ass!
freshwest
(53,661 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)Marzupialis
(398 posts)Rasmussen sucked in the 2010 Congressional elections. But what happened in 2008?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Last edited Sat Aug 4, 2012, 09:39 AM - Edit history (1)
Their manipulation of survey data to benefit the Republican candidate has been obvious and blatant for years.
Dont just look at the ratings.. Rasmussen knows how to manipulate those numbers too.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)But Pew was closer in the state by state analysis. Rasmussen had the national numbers close.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)And why does the poll ranking by Pollster.com have Pew and Rasmussen tied in accuracy in 2008?
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)Don't remember where I read it though.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)If you can't find which states Pew polled via Google then they probably didn't poll any states at all. And please state the last Pew prediction was, compared to the last Rasmussen poll.
Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)Believe it or don't, I don't care. Have a nice day.
Fozzledick
(3,860 posts)speedoo
(11,229 posts)That's the best news here. How does MittWitt reverse this? I don't see how he can.
Broderick
(4,578 posts)In this poll:
459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independent
This seems to tell me that people are running away from claiming to be Republicans.
And a ten point lead should be higher with this sampling shouldn't it?
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)Romney and they don't like it, he epitomizes the 1 percent. I think Obama's campaign has been masterful at defining Romney for America. I think this will help in down ballot races and I too think Democrats could regain the House, we must level the playing field and Obama is the middle class big stick but he needs a Congress that will work with him to pass tax increases on the rich shore up healthcare reform and bring jobs back to America. These are all common sense issues and Romney has zero common sense. I shudder to think what the country will look like if Romney gets elected and I think that shudder creeps in to most common sense thinking Americans....
cheezmaka
(737 posts)It's "too horrible" for me to even think about it...
Left Coast2020
(2,397 posts)I heard someone speculate on MSNBC earlyier that Mr. O could get (at least) 2 SC nominations in a second term. I wonder about the accuracy of that. The Senate is wayyyyyyyyy more important than the House.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)We were ever in danger of losing the Senate....so I don't even think it's in play.
WCGreen
(45,558 posts)The money will be diverted to....
Oh who are we kidding. They have money to piss away...
freshwest
(53,661 posts)They are famous for the October suprise. With all this hoopla over the chicken place, Glennbeckistan is getting bigger.
cheezmaka
(737 posts)their gonna need some really GOOD schemes this time to combat their current "negative" stance...
freshwest
(53,661 posts)AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)I doubt they'd be able to pull anything off at this point. The only hope they have is thru the other kind of trick; i.e. election fraud and modern-poll-tax voter ID laws. Carter was pretty damn unpopular back in '80 and Reagan might've still had a real good shot at winning without the original October Surprise op.......
Tarheel_Dem
(31,234 posts)unleashed. But this, and the recent swing state numbers, have to worry the Rmoney campaign.
I want to see them go for the senate
nxylas
(6,440 posts)Most polls have Obama around 3 points ahead. Best not to fall into the trap of cheering a single poll just because you like the results. I generally find Real Clear Politics's poll averages more reliable than any one poll. I'll want to see a few more polls like this one before I break out the champagne.
wiggs
(7,813 posts)adults in general. I believe most other election polls are polling likely voters.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)pnwmom
(108,977 posts)they had polled 2500+ adults, out of which 1956 were registered voters. But it wasn't clear to me which group they were basing their reported results on -- their text said one thing and their graph said another.
Also, they had an unusually high percentage of Dems in their sample. Higher than Dem turnout in 2008.
SlimJimmy
(3,180 posts)then they oversampled Dems by about 19%. I've been saying this for a few months now, and I'll repeat it here. Stop it pollsters. You aren't doing the President any favors when you use adults, registered voters, and add 10-20% more Dems than Repubs. The results give us a false sense of security. When using accurate models and likely voters, the race is razor close- well within the MOE.
Using accurate data (likely voters, the correct split between D's and R's):
The only battleground race where the president has a lead outside of the MOE is Pennsylvania.
Broderick
(4,578 posts)459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independent
Just wondering?
The campaigns have much more reliable data. They don't poll for headlines to keep it interesting. Our President has pretty much pulled out of PA. He has always been ahead there in the RCP average by a good margin. Pulling out of advertising there was a sign of good things. I do agree that we get a false sense of security by fake polls the media creates to influence. Complacency is not an option. Motivation is our best option.
SlimJimmy
(3,180 posts)qwlauren35
(6,148 posts)We have busloads from Baltimore going into PA every weekend, and we're pounding the pavement for more. I haven't given up on PA.
Broderick
(4,578 posts)Meaning that he is well ahead in internal polling. The ground game doesn't change. I can't recall now a week later where I read that. I took it as a wonderful sign.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)All polls poll adults. Do you want them to poll children? For the question we're discussing (Who will you vote for) only Registered voters were polled. Not adults in the sense that unregistered voters could have been polled. You are implying that non-registered voters were asked which candidate they want to vote for.
And what do you think the correct D vs. R split is? How did you determine it?
SlimJimmy
(3,180 posts)pnwmom
(108,977 posts)than would be expected -- so that might be why these numbers are so different from others.
In this poll:
459 Republicans
813 Democrats
599 Independent
The more I scratch the numbers through my brain; I believe his lead should be more. Either that or Republicans are lying about registration or they are drifting away from wanting to be Republicans. The independent number is really high too. I want to believe that is the case but if you extrapolate the numbers for normal turnout in an election, this doesn't honestly bode well with this breakdown. I would like to believe there are twice as man democrats in this country. Not that polls mean shit this early on.
aquart
(69,014 posts)There are more of us. If we vote, we win.
Broderick
(4,578 posts)77 million Registered Democrats
61 million Registered Republicans
Turnout from Republicans is quite higher, but in 2008 it was close.
Many registered Democrats in the South are Reagan Republicans that are registered Democrat but haven't changed their affiliation.
I think we need to model turnout percentages from averaging 2008 and 2010. I think that gives a fair assessment.
Motivation not to kick ourselves in the foot and motivation to get the young people voting again.
Ira
(51 posts)Nate Silvers Pew poll analysis shows national race is unchanged
From the forecast models standpoint, therefore, the Pew poll is treated as a four-point lead for Mr. Obama after making these adjustments. A four-point lead for Mr. Obama is a decent enough number for him, but nothing that should drastically change our understanding of the race.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/aug-2-when-a-poll-that-seems-like-news-isnt/#more-32767
aquart
(69,014 posts)Widen that gap!
Broderick
(4,578 posts)wrapped in an enigma.
cheezmaka
(737 posts)He knows he'll widen that gap by putting his FOOT in his MOUTH!!!
Stargleamer
(1,989 posts)see this link: [link:http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Aug03.html#item-1|
shaayecanaan
(6,068 posts)I thought it sounded unlikely, given that most polls have it much closer than that.
The cell phone issue is an interesting one - I accept that a sample of cell phone users will skew young, and therefore skew Democratic. On the other hand, a lot of young people dont bother with land lines much anymore. I suppose there must be an ideal ratio of land line to cell phone calls that avoids skewing the results one way or the other.