This concern that Romney will somehow release his taxes in an October Surprise is just silly...

[Drunken Irishman]

I know we're a bit gun shy because of past elections, but you can't think of everything as a trap. Sometimes there are incompetent candidates who run incompetent campaigns. It happens all the time. It doesn't mean there is some conspiracy out there to goad the Democrats into making this into a far bigger issue than it really is - therefore undermining the party, and Obama, when Romney inevitably releases his tax returns.

Look, this isn't just a spur of the moment decision by Romney to not release his tax returns. He has been secretive in this regard dating back to his run for senate in 1994. That would have to be a pretty long conspiracy to pull the Democrats in, only to hammer them with either fake returns, or returns that are squeaky clean. It's just not logical to believe Romney has hid his tax returns for 18 years just on the off chance he would be in the position to lay some trap when he decided to run for president.

Now some have suggested this is all a Rovian trap and that, come October, Romney will release his returns and make a fool out of anyone who questioned what exactly was on those tax returns. That, too, is illogical. If anyone truly thinks that, they need to step back a bit because it's a tad ridiculous.

Think about it for a second! Mitt Romney has already taken a hit in public opinion polls because of his tax returns. Why would his campaign continue to take that hit well through October, knowing it could essentially KILL his campaign, and then release the records at the last second? Do you honestly believe, even if there was nothing on those returns that could hurt him, they would wait until October, when the election is almost wrapped up, to release them? That's absurd. You don't keep something like that floating out there for that long and expect to roll it all back mere weeks from the election.

It would be suicidal for his campaign to operate under the assumption that all the damage we've seen could be undone that quickly.

The fact is, Romney has been secretive about his tax returns since '94 and that tells me something is there. It would be amateurish to risk everything on the off chance that maybe, possibly, you know, the lingering damage you're seeing from this concern being raised could automatically be dismissed by releasing the returns in October.

It just doesn't make sense. His campaign is not run by a bunch of C-list Hollywood hack writers who have to come up with an implausible twist at the end of the movie just for the sake of it.

Romney is just a bad candidate who has run a bad campaign. But he's not stupid. The fact he's willing to let this continue to damage his reputation tells me he believes that releasing those returns will be worse for him than allowing the speculation. That's all this is. If it wasn't, he would have released his returns long ago because everyone knows how damaging this has been to his campaign and you're not just gonna roll that back, even if your returns prove okay. Once it's out there, it's out there.

Well, it's out there.

[GoCubsGo]

1. Thank you.

The GOP invented and perfected the use of the false meme to hurt their opponents. I can't see them using one against that is aimed against themselves in order to somehow gain a political benefit.

[Raven]

2. Ahhhh! Thank you! I needed this

reassurance. I think I probably was the one who posted the "trap" theory and I'm happy to read your very rational analysis. Sometimes we need to be talked down.

[magical thyme]

3. well said and exactly right. the time to have released clean returns was a couple weeks ago. nt

[coalition_unwilling]

4. Bravo! Each day that goes by where his Royal Doucheness does not

release the returns just makes him look more and more shifty. Pretty soon, the branding will be complete - Romney is a shifty-eyed crook - and only those whose pathological hatred of black people makes them impervious to any amount of facts will still be in his camp. I never thought I would live to see it happen as an adult - I was a young whippersnapper when Nixon bit the dust.

[K8-EEE]

5. He's been afraid to release them his entire political career and

You know damn well there is a good reason for that....

[mucifer]

6. I'm just afraid come November this issue will be so old no one will care

Americans have a VERY short attention span.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. "I'm just afraid..."

I hate to say it, but that's what I hear from Democrats the most and it's annoying. Liberals need to shed their scared image and toughen up.

[Denninmi]

11. Plus one million.

They play MLB class ball when it comes to being tough, we're pee wee league. I never have understood that. Taking the high road is great in theory, but in practice it just leaves you alone and stranded while they pass you by.

[oldhippydude]

7. there will be an October Suprise... and we know what it is

the release of a major motion picture ... featuring the conclusion of the hunt for Osama Bin Laden..

that's right folks the election is ours to loose, and for once we are holding all the cards..everyone from Harry Reid, to President Obama is playing the game well.. we need to work our butts off locally, and enjoy the popcorn, when appropriate

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Sony actually bowed down to protests and changed the release to December...

Because they felt its October release would be too favorable to Obama.

[oldhippydude]

10. did not know........... sorry n/t

thought it was to good to be true..

[Drunken Irishman]

12. I didn't know it, either, until I Googled it after your comment.

Oh well. We don't need no stinkin' movie to win!

[oldhippydude]

16. oh my God

been out Goggled by a Drunken Irishman... btw don't even know the name of the movie myself, just heard it alluded to..

still bothers me that when the ptb strive to be "fair", it almost always goes against the more left position..

[reACTIONary]

13. One way or the other, this is the only way to play it...

Whatever is in Romney's tax returns, the only rational choice is to make it as big an issue of it as can be made. What else can be done? However unlikely, if it is a trap, that's the way it is. We HAVE to press the people's case, regardless of the off-chance that it's a "trap".

And even if Romney paid his fully legal "fair share" and it's above zero, there will be plenty of dirt in whatever he releases. I mean, this guy has Swiss bank accounts in his MOST RECENT tax return!

[speedoo]

14. Finally, some clear thinking logic.

Thanks, OP.. But I am sure we have not heard the last from the worriers.

[Herlong]

15. I'm certainly hopeful the Obama team

Is savvy enough to consider all possibilities. If this is a trap, no one on the Obama team should be on record pressing Harry Reid's concerns.

[emanymton]

17. In This Street Fight Of A Political Campaign ...

.

Go ahead. Look for an October surprise. But not by OMitt and his tax returns.

The issue of the release of federal income tax returns is important to the people/voters. It is about personal transparency.

At this stage, the corrosive effect on OMitt Rmoney's campaign is apparent. No matter what OMitt does now it will not be good for him.

When he does releases his federal tax returns, it will be made to look like OMitt dithered in making the decision. "Can he be trusted to act decisively in a crises."

Should OMitt go until November in refusing to explain a +$100 million private IRA AND not release 'Tax Returns' the voters will punish him and the RepublicanT Party.
__________

How many tax returns were submitted by the prospective VP candidates to the OMitt selection committee? How many tax returns will the VP candidate release?!



Ema Nymton
~ @ : o ?
.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

18. If he did release them at the last minute everyone would assume they're fake

and there would be no way to authenticate them in time.

I put forth on another thread the notion that it would be really ironic if it turned out he filed as a non-US Citizen to avoid paying taxes.

[Kalidurga]

20. it would be really ironic if it turned out he filed as a non-US Citizen to avoid paying taxes.

ah ha ha ha that would be hilarious. Is this possible though, legal and what not?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

22. If he did that there would be a real issue with him running for President...

...but he did that when he ran for governor.

[Kalidurga]

23. I still don't get how he got away with that.

If his returns reveal he was an illegitimate governor (which I believe he was) what will the legal repercussions be if any? I am not saying his returns will show this or that they are needed to prove it, it seems rather obvious to me that this was the case.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

24. Maybe we could go retroactive and invalidate everything his signed into law.

[Kalidurga]

25. He he

I thought of that and I think it would probably be a disaster. But, I am not sure that wouldn't be what they could or would do. I wish I knew what would happen if this was what was revealed. I think it should result in jail time, but 1%ers rarely serve time for their illegal activities.

[thecentristword]

19. What could possibly be worth all this bad press??

[link:|

[D23MIURG23]

21. He has done this before and still won the election.

According to Rachel Maddow a similar line of attack was used by Dems in the 2002 gubernatorial race in Mass. Romney probably doesn't think this is going to be a big enough issue to cost him the presidency, whatever is in those returns. This, of course, may or may not be true.

IMO he is probably using tax loopholes and write-offs that are sketchy at best. I would guess that he would prefer to risk losing the presidency than risk drawing an IRS audit because people (other than his private accountants) have gone over his finances with a fine tooth comb.

Having said that, he could release his returns in late October as a last ditch damage control measure. At that point he might consider it a lower risk proposition given that everyone is going to lose interest in several days anyway. That wouldn't really be a trap though, as you noted. I would also be surprised if that happened given his history of avoiding transparency at all costs. He didn't release his returns in the Mass. governors race, and after his term ended, he erased all of the hard drives his staff had been using.