Clinton 50 Sanders 13 SC.

[Historic NY]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

[daleanime]

1. Well, that's it. It's all over now....

I'll just curl up into a ball, and wept until 2020....



On the other hand, let's see how many more people we can get registered this last week in NY.

[marym625]

3. make room for me under that blanket

I mean, gosh, numbers like this can't possibly change!

Goodbye cruel world!

[marym625]

2. Remember when those were the numbers in NJ

And Iowa? This too, soon shall pass

10 Reasons Bernie Sanders Will Overtake Hillary Clinton in National Polls Before the Iowa Caucus

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/10-reasons-bernie-sanders-will-overtake-hillary-clinton_b_8205712.html

[Metric System]

4. I laugh whenever I see a link to an HA Goodman article. He's Sanders' one-man Pravda.

[marym625]

7. must suck to have him proved right.

[99Forever]

35. I laugh when I see ...

... the word "inevitable" these days. A great, big, loud belly-laugh.

Carry on.

[Metric System]

36. The only people I've ever seen using that word is Hillary detractors, so the joke's on you.

[99Forever]

38. ...

Yeah, sure. No one from Camp Weathervane EVER tries to sells the bulllshit that only The Only One MUST be accepted by ALL.

You really are a comedian. Yay for you!!!!!

Thanks for reminding to add you to my blacklist.

[Metric System]

41. Blacklist over what? Geez, some of you really do want an echo chamber.

[99Forever]

42. ...

[Armstead]

5. Lines in trend graph

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

[oasis]

6. After Hill struts her foreign policy stuff in the first debate

you can call it a wrap.

[daleanime]

8. Yeah, I know....

kill them all plays real well.

[oasis]

11. Not as well as

"These colors don't run".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Her position on gun control will have a lot more resonance in a Democratic primary.

eom

[oasis]

21. I agree. (eom)

[Bjorn Against]

15. Her foreign policy is one of the main reasons many of us oppose her

If you think Hillary is going to do well in the foreign policy part of the debate I have one word for you: Iraq. She voted to authorize the biggest foreign policy disaster in recent history, if you think that will help her in the debate you are dead wrong.

[oasis]

22. I doubt if the panel will go into ancient history with so much

going on worldwide which warrants immediate attention.

[Bjorn Against]

23. Iraq is not ancient history, it is still fresh on the minds of many especially those who lost family

Go ahead and tell those families that the loss of their loved ones is "ancient history" but I suspect it would not go over well.

[oasis]

24. Level heads will not see Hill as a cheerleader for the war.

Most Democrats voting in the upcoming primaries would acknowledge it was Bush and Cheney's war.

[Bjorn Against]

29. It not only belongs to Bush, it belongs with the people who sided with Bush as well

Hillary chose to side with Bush, she could have chose to stand against him but she did not. No one who sided with Bush on the biggest foreign policy disaster in recent history should be Commander in Chief.

[Live and Learn]

25. Iraq is the cause of the destablization causing worldwide chaos. nt

[oasis]

27. Yup, and Hillary was the mastermind.

[Live and Learn]

30. She voted for it. She owns it. nt

[oasis]

31. Hill voted for war as a last resort. How did she know Hans Blix

and his weapons inspectors would be ordered out of Iraq by Bush, before they could prove there was no WMD?

[closeupready]

39. Years later she stated she had no regrets about that vote.

[SunSeeker]

9. K & R

[kenn3d]

10. SC Primary polls are still too few and too infrequent

Last edited Sat Oct 3, 2015, 01:51 AM - Edit history (1)

SC Primary polls are still too few and too infrequent imo, but I suspect that will also begin to change soon and more often.
Since the last Gravis SC Dem Primary poll (@Aug 5th)
Clinton is -28
Biden is +13
Sanders is +5

[DCBob]

14. When the gap is 37+ points the frequency of polling doesn't matter.

Its a blowout either way.

[kenn3d]

17. Consider this?

On April 30th when Sanders announced his candidacy, the Clinton gap was over 40pts in NH...
Clinton 51.5 / Sanders 11.3

Today (just 4 months later) Sanders is ahead by 9pts.
Clinton 32.3 / Sanders 41.3

And the SC Primary is more than 4 months away.

Anything can happen ... GOTV

[DCBob]

18. New Hampshire / East Sanderstan is not representative of the rest of the country.

[kenn3d]

19. Iowa doesn't represent the country either?

On April 30th when Sanders announced his candidacy, the Clinton gap was over 54pts in IA...
Clinton 60.8 / Sanders 6.6

Today (just 4 months later)
Clinton 38.7 / Sanders 35.3 (current spread of Clinton +3.4% is within the MoE a statistical tie)


And again, more than 4 months until the IA Caucus.

Maybe Iowa doesn't represent the country either?
Will SC represent the country 4 months from now?

[DCBob]

20. Correct.. it doesnt either.

Iowa is ranked 40th and NH is ranked 41 of states most demographically representative based on racial variation from the average.

http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2012/01/racial-variation-by-state.html

South Carolina is much more representative ranking at 18.

[kenn3d]

28. Thanks for the "reference" link, but...

http://anepigone.blogspot.com/ (aka The Audacious Epigone) says:

"The proceeding table is constructed from 2010 census data. I took the absolute differences between each state's (non-Hispanic) white, black, Hispanic, Asian, and other (primarily Native American) population percentages and that of the US as a whole in each of the respective racial categories and then added those values together to come up with a racial variance score for each state. The higher the score, the more divergent a state's racial demographics are from the national mean, the lower the score, the more racially representative the state is of the country it is part of"

The table then goes on to report these "racial variance scores" for example:
New Hampshire 57.2
Iowa 50.0
South Carolina 31.4
California 60.0
Vermont 61.2
Illinois 3.8
Hawaii 118.8

So.... hmmmm.... is this science I wonder? South Carolina is twice as representative of the US as California is? And California is about the same as Vermont? Can Illinois be 10 times more representative of the US than South Carolina? How am I to interpret any of this data?

In one of the 5 comments to this blog post:

Jon Claerbout said...
When I see Vermont right next to California I wonder if you have come up with a statistic with no sensible interpretation.

I think I agree with Jon, but at the very least I wouldn't put too much credence into the Audacious Epigone's numerical ranking of the 50 states.

ep·i·gone
ˈepəˌɡōn/
noun
a less distinguished follower or imitator of someone, especially an artist or philosopher.

Interesting blog though, really... checkout his Oct 1, 2015 article on "Shameful Dogism"

[DCBob]

33. Yeah, the California result was a bit weird to me also.

So I did a bit more searching and found another article about state ranking and create a discussion about it..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251644033

It also shows CA, NH and Iowa as being less representative as compared to other states. SC looks about average.

[BooScout]

12. Thanks for this!

Always love to see big numbers for Hillary!

[Gothmog]

16. South Carolina is looking strong for Clinton

[hrmjustin]

26. More good news.

[NonMetro]

32. I Don't Doubt It. And Let's Give Credit Where Credit Is Due:

The Clinton camp can take credit for keeping her numbers up, in spite of the relentless GOP attacks against her. Good job!

[aikoaiko]

34. Like a slow moving freight train. Huffpollster has it at 48 v 23

[DCBob]

37. That graph is stale. It doesn't include latest Gravis SC poll.

If it did those lines would look much different.

[moobu2]

40. Polls dont matter unless they show Bernie Sanders ahead.