Expect Temporary Convention bounce

[WI_DEM]

"Polling since 1964 suggests that both Mitt Romney and President Obama can expect a small but significant increase in support following their respective party conventions. But sustaining those bumps is no sure thing," National Journal reports.

"Since 1964, the median 'bump' or 'bounce' earned by presidential candidates in Gallup polling after their conventions has been 5 percentage points. In some cases, the convention bump has receded quickly as presidential debates and other outside factors dominate the storyline. But in other years, a convention bump has set the tone for the final few months of the campaign."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/14/expect_temporary_convention_bounce.html

[Cosmocat]

1. This is probably going to really indicate how this plays out

Romney SHOULD bump over BO by a decent margin - a couple points.

If memory serves me, McCain did when he picked Palin and had his convention, it lasted about two weeks or so.

Romney gaffed the heck out of the VP roll out - fricken 9 am eastern on a Saturday. The quality of the pick aside, the timing was just mind boggling from a capture the media cycles standpoint.

A major economic or security event aside, the convention is probably his last big shot.

If he does not bump over BO during/after it, even with the quick turnaround to the D convention, he has a VERY, VERY big hill to climb.

[WI_DEM]

2. Yes, McCain had a slight lead after his convention.

[gkhouston]

3. I wouldn't be surprised if the bounce is minimal or non-existent.

It'll be fun watching the media handle that.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

4. I think they'll make sure there's a bounce

My inner tin foil hat is wondering if Obama's widening national lead wasn't a big set up for the tightening narrative after the vp pick and Republican convention.

[CTyankee]

5. I think it's gonna be worse than that, based on how they effed up right after the Ryan pick.

Picked on Saturday, booed the following Monday at one of his assigned campaign stops! That's never happened before! They usually have a week or so grace period! The sh*t hit the fan so fast I couldn't believe it!