2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPrimary Campaign Reset!
Joe Biden pushed the Reset button on the primary campaign today, by announcing that he won't seek the Democratic nomination for President.
The inclusion of his name in recent polls has been based on the possibility of a run by the VP, and he garnered up to 20% or so in many polls. Now that he has withdrawn, his name will disappear from future polls. Indeed, a few had already removed his name to test the effect of his withdrawal.
The results of those tests, in national polls, was a good-sized bump for Clinton. Next week's polling will show how much of a bump Clinton gets from his announcement that he will not run.
My prediction: Clinton gets the bulk of Biden's poll numbers.
Another prediction: Biden won't be endorsing Bernie Sanders. He said, in his speech, that he wants to see the "Obama legacy" continued. I think the meaning of that will become clear fairly shortly.
The Campaign is Reset. Watch the poll results!
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)MineralMan
(146,288 posts)Not in any way. I don't know if a direct endorsement will be forthcoming, but it seems clear to me what he meant by continuing the "Obama legacy."
I expect wailing and gnashing of teeth to commence almost immediately.
riversedge
(70,204 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)"Obama legacy" is just words. His actions have been louder.
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)MineralMan
(146,288 posts)that Joe became VP and Hillary became Secretary of State in the Obama administration. That seems quite relevant to all of this to me. How about you?
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Once he said he didn't know if he could handle it emotionally, it wasn't gonna happen.
MineralMan
(146,288 posts)I felt sure about that quite some time ago. I even hinted that it might be an intentional feint. I don't know if that's true, but it always seemed possible to me, as a means of giving Clinton a boost about at this point in the campaign. I'm pretty certain the boost will occur, so...
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Also, I sincerely hope Joe does work to help find a cancer cure. I'm a survivor and his commitment to the cause means so much.
riversedge
(70,204 posts)I do hope you are doing well. I have close relatives who have survived- but one 30 yr old fighting breast cancer right now. Going thru radiation. She gets so sick. so sick. Actually she is an in-law but the effect on the family is horrible. She has a 17 month old.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)I am fine. Was diagnosed almost 4 years ago with early stage breast cancer. Went through everything except chemo, thank Dog! My main problem has been side effects from the hormonal treatment they give we estrogen positive people. Long story. I'm so sorry your family member is suffering. My heart goes out to the young women. It's Just so unfair and tragic when they are stricken with this monster.
riversedge
(70,204 posts)msnbc. just now
MineralMan
(146,288 posts)in all directions, I'm sure.
riversedge
(70,204 posts)In solidarity.
MineralMan
(146,288 posts)This announcement is almost certain to give her a big polling bump, added to the bump from the first debate.
That could have been the plan, actually. I don't know, but that has occurred to me for some time. If so, it's a good plan, and one that's likely to succeed.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)Which they have bent over backwards not to do for months now by focusing on Biden as much as possible. Far more polling has been done in the last few months showing how Biden would match up against various Republican candidates than has been done with Sanders. - which is pretty amazing when you realize that not only was Biden never a candidate, but Sanders has virtually always been outperforming Biden in polls.
The media will continue to concentrate on the Republican contest for President, but with at least 5 more Democratic debates schedules and no one other than Clinton and Sanders polling in double digits, Sanders will start getting more attention. They need some aspect of a horse race to report on if nothing else.
MineralMan
(146,288 posts)I'm not sure. It could be a Hillary victory message, with the focus shifting to the General Election already.
MineralMan
(146,288 posts)It's Fall. They should have gone silent by now. Chirp-chirp.
glinda
(14,807 posts)MineralMan
(146,288 posts)They're also common goals for Democrats. I wouldn't read much into that. What is important to everyone is that a Democrat win the General Election. That is the overriding goal.
brooklynite
(94,520 posts)Clinton was handily in first place, Sanders was doing respectably well, and O'Malley/Chafee were...not.
What's changed?
MineralMan
(146,288 posts)Hillary Clinton will shortly have a lead in the polls that shows her as the clear winner of the nomination. That's the reset. The question will be answered as to who will be the nominee of the Democratic Party.
It will be obvious to all.