Clinton just briefly crested 90% likelihood for the Democratic nomination

[Godhumor]

Last edited Sat Oct 31, 2015, 07:42 PM - Edit history (2)

Predictive markets are breaking heavily for Clinton.

http://www.predictwise.com

Likelihood of nomination:

HRC - 90%
BS - 10%
MOM - 0%

[L0oniX]

2. So there's a 90% chance the oligarchy will win.

[Thinkingabout]

3. I had read some post wanting the nomination to go to Sanders with perhaps 25%

Now this would constitute an oligarchy, government ruled by the few.

[ffr]

5. I see what you did there.

Clever in rebuttal.

[Starry Messenger]

10. Ha!

[JimDandy]

35. Naw, more like the Clinton Superdelegates.

You know, the delegates who answer only to Clinton instead of a vote of the people. That Oligarchy.

[Thinkingabout]

40. Wrong again, do some research on superdelegates, their vote at the convention counts like the

Dedicated delegates. Sanders has been in Congress for twenty five years, has had much more time to establish a relationship with other congressional members than HRC has had. I would think if Sanders had received the endorsements from super delegates and the super delegates would be what handed him the nomination you would be happy.

[JimDandy]

45. Wrong again. Superdelegates circumvent democracy-the vote of the people

I have always been against the use of Superdelegates.

That was my point: your 25% story was someone's wishful thinking. The reality is Superdelegates can actually overturn the results of a popular majority vote. And these superdelegates ARE the ruling (and nearly always rich) Oligarchy: US Governors, The President and all 450 members of the DNC, including Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.

[upaloopa]

56. 60% of the people want Hillary

Things are as they should be

[JimDandy]

58. I go by votes. The polls are not reflecting what I hear on the ground

or read on the net. We'll all see soon. Until then, I'm giving it all I got to help get Bernie Sanders the nomination.

What will be, will be...Bernie.

[MrMickeysMom]

77. "Things are as they SHOULD be"???

.... Okay...

How SHOULD they be? And, who informed you of that?

[Gman]

81. Wrong again those rules were put in place by grassroots

people who are real Democrats. Not like an independent trying to take advantage of a party structure he did nothing to build.

[PosterChild]

53. +100 !! (NT)

[Cha]

65. Excellent, T!

[Gothmog]

84. The highest that I have seen Sanders is about 20%

Biden was always ahead of Sanders on Predictwise because few people really believe that Sanders has a chance of being the nominee. Hillary was as low as 67% on Predictiwise when Biden was in the mix but now the probability is up to 87% to 90%

[Thinkingabout]

89. He was higher in a couple of states so I tried to throw him a few.

[riversedge]

8. There is a 90% probablity that a warm, strong, intelligent woman will be in the Oval office.

[L0oniX]

9. -

[Scootaloo]

17. Awesome!

Who, if I may ask?

[Martin Eden]

22. Those qualities could be accurately applied to a Third Way politician

As a matter of fact, you just did.

[artislife]

23. Is Warren jumping in? nt

[whatchamacallit]

33. Lol

no really, lol

[forest444]

34. As a Bernie Sanders supporter, all I have to say is:

You're right.

I mean, I still plan to vote for Bernie in the primaries; but I think we all know who the nominee is going to be.

And a half-progressive is always better whatever fascist Armageddon freak emerges from the GOP clown car. Let us never forget that.

[stonecutter357]

46. +1

[thesquanderer]

50. 90% probability that she will win the Dem nomination.

Somewhat lower probability that she will be in the oval office, since she still has one more election to win to get there...

[KoKo]

82. You forget ...it's a "TwoFer"...Hillary/Bill Third Term...

There is honest disagreement among Dems whether this is a good idea or not. It smacks to some as Dynasty. Its an issue that will be brought up down the line.

Nothing to do with an Independent Woman running for President. It's a Legacy Woman running for President and has recognition because she was a First Lady and all the entitled power exactly because of name recognition has to be taken into consideration. Just saying.......Power=Privilege.

[azmom]

4. Give her the crown NOW

[riversedge]

11. I like this one.

https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=OIP.M10576c6563c3f582160b57fe1f9804d4H0&pid=15.1&rs=1&c=1&qlt=95&w=181&h=98

[azmom]

19. I find those tacky. She isn't going to be the

Damn Queen of England. Something more Americana.

[Thinkingabout]

41. I like those also.

[murielm99]

55. Maybe it would be better in royal blue.

Blue is her color.

[Thinkingabout]

59. You know, you are right plus DNC color is blue. I like your suggestion.

[ffr]

6. Not if HRC, BS, & MOM voters don't vote

It only matters the number of those who do vote. People who choose not to vote, don't serve their own best interests or beliefs.

[restorefreedom]

7. 90% desire by the oligarchs, not the people. this means squat. nt

[Godhumor]

12. Must sting that "the people" are also breaking for Clinton n/t

[restorefreedom]

13. why don't we wait for people to, ya know,

VOTE, k?

you will be stunned.

and ps...the fact that you seem to delight in the perceived disappointment of others tells me all i need to know.

[Godhumor]

15. No. I don't think I'll be shocked. I really don't

But I can't wait to hear the theories about why she wins.

[restorefreedom]

16. i don't think she will win

but rigging does have its advantages.....

[livetohike]

21. Rigging? Nice and handy little excuse ready for why Bernie gets crushed in the primary process. n/t

[restorefreedom]

31. he wont be crushed

but the collusion of the establishment in the DNC is pretty transparent. They have their candidate picked out already.

[Godhumor]

24. Yeah, that is one excuse I expect to hear. Glad you got in front of it

And PS I don't delight in the misery of others. I do, however, support my candidate. You'll excuse me if I don't let glib remarks on how she isn't legitimate pass by. The fact that you can't acknowledge that there is more than one worthwhile person running tells me all I need to know about you.

[restorefreedom]

30. never said she wasn't a legit candidate

i said she is being propped up by the establishment and the dnc. it is pretty out in the open.

[demosincebirth]

88. Sounds like you believe every elecion your candidates don't win the election is "rigged."

[oasis]

28. Stunned, shocked, shaken, stirred and stupified.

But until then...

[Thinkingabout]

27. Let's see, 90% for HRC and you are suggesting oligarchs, 90% does not equal government by the few,

To suggest 90% is the oligarch, no it is not going to be government, 90% does not equal oligarchy.

[restorefreedom]

32. the 90% in my view represents the desire, not the number of people. nt

[Thinkingabout]

36. In other words the 10% represents the desire. Still does not equate to ruling by the few.

There is a need to understanding 90% of the people and their votes will not be government by the few.

[restorefreedom]

49. the people with the money are in the few

those are the ones who desire 90% for hillary imo

so basically, the 1% are hoping with 90% so called odds

so yeah, 1% is an oligarchy

[Thinkingabout]

57. This is not how voting works, let's be truthful.

[thesquanderer]

47. The post doesn't say 90% for HRC

It says that HRC has a 90% chance of winning (which, of course, can be done with far fewer than 90% of the votes)

[RichVRichV]

52. Wait? You actually think this is a poll where 90% went for Hillary?

Or that 90% of the voters will vote for her in the primaries?


You obviously need to read up on what this site is. predictwise FAQ


It's an aggregate site that makes predictions based on multiple sites, most of them have to do with betting and buying stocks on subjects. If you think that's a good representation of the will of the people, all I can say is wow.

[Thinkingabout]

42. 90% does not equate to the few.

[Ed Suspicious]

64. Those are odds not votes, right?

This whole thread is weird.

[Thinkingabout]

66. It could be interrupted as votes in some ways, it does not say government by the few.

[Ed Suspicious]

67. No it cannot. Its speculation.

[Thinkingabout]

73. If Hillary wins the office of presidency it will not be by a vote from the few, it will

Be by majority of the electorate college, still would not be government by the few.

[NorthCarolina]

68. It doesn't have to say "government by the few", because that's just common knowledge. eom

[Armstead]

14. And Wal Mart is the biggest selling retailer

Maybe she will win. But quantity is not quality.

[Scootaloo]

18. And the bible is the most-read book in the country. n/t

[onecent]

39. And WHY is what I will NEVER UNDERSTAND.

[Thinkingabout]

29. Well, she could go back to Walmart and Sanders could return to writing articles about women's

Fantasies and cancer cures.

[PowerToThePeople]

20. How many poor and working class

are using this gambling web site?

[Sheepshank]

25. That explains the latest shit storm on DU.

While I fully realized numbers will wax and wan, I'll enjoy these numbers for now

[riversedge]

26. And they will wax and wane--for sure. But as say, after a

rather discouraging few months, I will enjoy them now.

[onecent]

37. I don't usually

believe in karma, destiny, or ever that things will go as planned...but I would venture to go out on a limb
and say that Hiliary has been destined to be president in 2016 since she was conceived - due to or through what source I KNOW not...but you can take it to the bank.....even though she is a war monger.

[workinclasszero]

38. Awesome Hillary!

[Thinkingabout]

43. YES YES YES!!!!!

[SunSeeker]

44. K & R

[Helen Borg]

48. Betting markets...

Also had Clinton at 90% in 2008. Predictive markets are heavily influenced by temporary fads.

[upaloopa]

54. Lightening doesn't strike twice Bernie isn't Obama

[stonecutter357]

51. it's geting

[SmittynMo]

60. I love it when an

under dog wins. Especially when it's by such a large number. Think about it

[wendylaroux]

61. stock market

i like it.

[McKim]

62. Here comes War and More War

Here comes war and more war. It is sad that a female candidate is so very bellicose. I thought womens values meant Peace, stupid me.

[Jim Lane]

63. That's a bit higher than the likelihood that Obamacare would be overturned by the Supreme Court

The bettors set the likelihood of a striking of the individual mandate (on Intrade, specifically) at about 80%. See "Betting on the future" for an interesting discussion of online prediction markets.

[SoapBox]

69. Big money, Big, power, The War Machine, Banksters and Billionaires...

Would all be giddy if she won.

She won't.

[OnlinePoker]

70. Of course

Because Americans say they want change but keep electing corporate shills who don't give a damn about the well-being of the populace.

[humbled_opinion]

71. Bernie Sanders is

too much of a gentlemen and too much of a true Progressive to beat HRC.... Establishment wins..... I just hope there are no regrets if she loses the GE.... If you think the Rethugs are going to go easy on her .....LOL... Remember she must gain some moderate Independent support to win the GE... Bernie has a message that reaches both sides of the aisle Clinton's appeal to the right side is faced with nothing but hatred so they will tune her out completely at least with Bernie we had a fair shot that some few would at least listen.

[99Forever]

72. ...

[NonMetro]

74. Has there ever been a doubt? n/t

[SidDithers]

75. DU rec...nt

Sid

[DCBob]

76. I actually think Omalley has a better chance than Bernie.

The only way Hillary loses this if she is indicted for the email stuff... which is a very remote possibility. However, if that happens she drops out and most of her supporters would probably go to Omalley, not Sanders. IMO.

[FloridaBlues]

78. No surprise there.

[MrMickeysMom]

79. Q: "What is PredictWise?"

A redictWise aggregates, analyzes, and creates predictions on politics, sports, finance, and entertainment.

Hey, does this entertainment value include nose rings?

And also from this site...

Q:Should I make any bets based on this information?
A:No, betting money on sports, politics, or anything else is a bad idea. Not only is it losing proposition due to the house's commission, but it is addictive, destructive, and - depending on your location - most likely illegal.

Whew! That's a relief!

[LibDemAlways]

80. Winning the Democratic nomination and winning the Presidency

are two different things. Al Gore is living proof of the lengths the Repukes will go to to install one of their own -- even a brainless moron like the chimp.

Hillary would face a tough fight. She'd have to win over many Bernie voters who find her claims to be on the side of the 99% about as convincing as the average 4-year-old pretending to be Spiderman tonight. She'd have to do extremely well with Independents because Republicans (who reflexively hate all things Clinton) will vote for her opponent, whichever cretin it turns out to be, in great numbers and with considerable enthusiasm.

As has become customary, the election will be fought in a few battleground states where voters will choose between a Democratic corporatist and a Republican uber corporatist.

I am a Democrat and have loyally voted for every Democratic candidate since casting my first vote for McGovern in '72. I will vote for the Democratic nominee on my 64th birthday next November 8th. But if I am marking my ballot for Hillary Clinton, it will be with the other hand firmly holding my nose and the knowledge that the true losers that night will be the millions whose hope for change that favors the masses will be dashed yet again.

[Gothmog]

83. The probability of Hillary Clinton being the nominee is back down to 89%

Predictwise fluctuates a bid during the day. These are still great numbers

[Gothmog]

85. I miss the old Intrade market

The CFTC shut down that market because people were playing games at the end by timing purchases and sales to affect the opening and closing prices of the securities/options. For a while the Intrade market was very accurate as to predicting races

Predictwise is new and has mechanism to make it hard or impossible for US citizens to easily buy options or participate in the market

[Spitfire of ATJ]

86. Clickity! Clickity! Clickity! Clickity!

[Flying Squirrel]

87. Obama was at 10% just two weeks earlier in 2007.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251751245

[Mark Grable]

90. So your'e giving me

nine to one odds for real?

that means I put up $100 and you put up $900,

if Bernie wins, I get the $900

if Hillary wins, You get $100

I got the cash, have you?

[Gothmog]

91. Intrade has Clinton at 94%

That is a new high http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination

[Mark Grable]

92. to bad

nobody would put their money down back in Nov.