2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders is in big trouble: You don’t have to be a neoliberal shill to see the cold, hard fact
All of this highlights what was always going to be one of Sanderss biggest weaknesses in seeking the nomination. Though he has always caucused with Democrats in both the House and Senate during his career, Sanders had always officially been an independent. He even rejected the Democratic Partys endorsement during two of his campaigns for his Senate seat. Presidential candidates like to claim they are Washington outsiders. Sanders is a party outsider.
In short, Sanders does not have the base of support within the party that Hillary Clinton has been building up since her husband was a popular governor in Arkansas thirty years ago. Were he running as a Republican, that would not matter. The Republican Party is fragmented and fractious, with no real power center. The invisible primary once was a part of its nomination process, but no longer. As proof, FiveThirtyEight has Jeb Bush with the largest number of endorsements from GOP leaders (36, compared to Clintons official 385), and his campaign has been taking on water faster than the Lusitania while Donald Trump and Ben Carson sit atop all the polls.
As best I can tell, Sanders and his campaign have been counting on generating enthusiasm, particularly among the 18-29 year-old demographic from which he draws the majority of his support, to carry him through. There is nothing wrong with that if it is part of a larger strategy. The problem is that this seems to be Sanderss strategy for everything. (He has said at least twice that as president, he will push legislation through Congress by threatening Republican leaders with being voted out of office by an army of youths. This will not exactly strike fear in the hearts of Republicans from safely gerrymandered districts.)
In other words, the Sanders strategy is great for setting opening weekend box office records for the next Avengers movie, but not for beating out Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination. It would be one thing if he had a spectacular ground game in the states a la Barack Obama in 2008, but he doesnt seem to have that either.
Please feel free to use the comments section to call me a corporatist, warmongering neoliberal shill, but this is the reality. And it would be the reality for anyone running against Hillary Clinton in 2016, regardless of political message.
http://www.salon.com/2015/10/28/bernie_sanders_is_in_big_trouble_you_dont_have_to_be_a_neoliberal_shill_to_see_the_cold_hard_facts/
daleanime
(17,796 posts)which is work to improve our country and elect an honest president. And I even more sure that that isn't Hillary then I was 4 months ago.
deutsey
(20,166 posts)I will vote for Sanders if he's on my state's primary ballot. If he isn't, I will probably write him in. It will be the first time in my life that I will have voted for a presidential candidate whose politics are in line with mine (and I've been voting since 1984).
As I always say, I will vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election, but I'll probably be holding my nose as usual.
840high
(17,196 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)gwheezie
(3,580 posts)It has nothing to do with liking Bernie. He has not built the infrastructure in the dem party to beat Hillary. He doesn't have the networking and personal relationship within the party. The people who get the elections done. It's just not there.
I know his supporters mock endorsements from dem politicians but these politicians have connections down to the precinct level to cajole and pester people for support.
I'm not saying Bernie can't win but he doesn't have decades of relationships witj dem pols, sure he votes with dems but he hasn't worked within the party to get dems elected.
jfern
(5,204 posts)And he was one of only 6 founders of what is now the largest Democratic caucus with 69 members, the Progressive Caucus.
gwheezie
(3,580 posts)It is what it is, if enough of his supporters vote for him he will win. I'm talking about the traditional dem pols that control the states and local structure who do the daily grind of getting the dem voters to vote.
bec
(107 posts)The Clinton Machine had been around for a very long time and they are cashing in favors with the establishment. Most of Bernie supporters are not being polled,
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)gwheezie
(3,580 posts)I'm not saying its impossible but I doubt he will be nominated either. He doesn't have the support from democrats.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)It's possible, i suppose... But we're not talking a a couple percentage points right now. We're talking about a 25-30 point lead. In some caes, clinton is doubling Sanders' numbers. Never say never, and all that, but if Bernie wins, it will be because people change their mind, not becuase there is some vast resevoir of untapped Bernie supporters that never show up in the polls.
jfern
(5,204 posts)So he has the support of some Democratic politicians.
luvspeas
(1,883 posts)According to omalley
Solero
(10 posts)He's seen as an outsider. Not part of the establishment or the party machine. We shouldn't underestimate that.
gwheezie
(3,580 posts)He's gotten a paycheck for being a politician for decades.
Cha
(297,655 posts)Preemptive strike .. I like it!
BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)of today's US Presidential election processes, I'm afraid.
There is also the fact that, despite how Hillary is characterized by some, she is not now and never has been anything like any of the GOPer candidates. And she never ever will be. Thank heavens! Anyone who argues such is no longer credible to me.
I am SOOOOO done with the not voting for the "lesser of two evils" BS that has lost elections for Democrats on too many occasions. Such people - if they really mean what they say - don't even deserve the right to vote, IMO. They refuse to understand what is at stake. Or they are operatives - paid or volunteer - who are deliberately trying to sow dissension.
During my first several years of DU membership, I only put two individuals on "Ignore." Lately, I have found the "Ignore" button to be my friend, especially during the past couple weeks. My list has grown exponentially and likely will continue to grow.
What a shame that we cannot be happy that we have three excellent Dem candidates! Although the odds - at least currently - are overwhelmingly in favor of one, especially when one considers the "cold, hard facts" mentioned here, no election is over until it's over. When it is, then we will have our candidate. And only then.
I will support whichever of these three who wins the nomination with all my heart. But until then, I am a wholly committed Hillary supporter. Period.
Mbrow
(1,090 posts)That in my opinion (an it is just an opinion) that what bites us in the ass is that when Dem's run to the left then govern to the right (or toward the moneyed class) it makes a lot of people disillusioned. Polling shows many of us are to the left which is why HRC is moving left as many dem's in the past have done. If she wins i'll vote for her as i think 95% or so of Bernie supporters will, but I have little hope that she will move to the left except in some social issue like Obama has. I always vote, but sometimes it's hard to hold my nose and do it. Here in Idaho it doesn't make much difference but I like seeing Dem's pulling about 30-35% of the vote here.
BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)I certainly understand how you feel.
Bernie and Martin have both contributed significantly to pulling the Dem establishment and rhetoric to the left, IMO, and I certainly cheer them for that among their many other sterling qualities. I want to see both of them stay in and continue with that good work.
And then, who knows? It's still early in the game. But for the long haul, whoever the Dem nominee is will need the Dem establishment and this is a basic truth. The GOPers certainly aren't going to help.
Like many in the US, I wish that we had a functioning multi-party system. But that is not what we have and that will not have changed by the 2016 election.
Thanks for always voting! Yours is a beautiful state, right next to my birth state. You can blame the early MT politicians for getting to DC first and making their case for the Northern Rockies, thus giving Idaho its panhandle link to Canada. Sorry about that! http://history.idaho.gov/territorial-history
I'm not Native to Idaho, we moved here in 2003 from San diego, Not native there either. I've always called north Michigan home its where my family is from. I'm lucky enough to have a job that it doesn't matter where i live. Idaho is great, a lot of people to the right but still nice. I'm in Idaho falls, great little community, the national labs brings in some normal people and the rest are LDS who tend to be reasonably civilized. (tongue firmly in cheek).
Scuba
(53,475 posts)newfie11
(8,159 posts)LittleGirl
(8,291 posts)and the primaries haven't even started yet so I'm going to hold on hope that Bernie will be the countries choice. It's really too early for me to give up on #FeelingTheBern.
Won't vote for Hillary if I don't have to.
hack89
(39,171 posts)It will be over, one way or another, after Super Tuesday.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)And as Dylan says:
billhicks76
(5,082 posts)Are you implying Hillary wouldn't mobilize her troops to support the democratic nominee? I thought that's a cardinal sin here on DU. If you haven't noticed no one trusts Clinton's and Bushes anymore. They are both Proven liars.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)But surely it is sacrilege to talk that way of the Annointed One.
Go ahead, call me a pony-wanting special snowflake. Obama's lot did that too when I asked for equal rights; it's nothing I can't take.
billhicks76
(5,082 posts)I cant believe they allow a private group on here to come up on common threads. It's antithetical to democracy. They want a republic not a democracy just like you know who. Lately their group has about 7 or 8 comments at most. Thats a barometer of the enthusiasm she will generate. Democrats are committing political suicide if they elect any woman with a "D" next to her name. Select Elizabeth Warren and say hello to 8 years of democrat executives. Bernie too can win.
Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)willvotesdem
(75 posts)840high
(17,196 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)riversedge
(70,299 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)sellitman
(11,607 posts)Wouldn't have that been easier?
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)When it comes down to it, losing the primary is the best thing that could happen for him.
He loses the primary, Hillary gets blamed for everything from owning the media to intimidating the world into electing her, and he at least departs the stage with his grande perfectness intact.
He wins the primary but loses the General, we end up with a SCOTUS that is solidly conservative, and everything from abortion to gay rights starts to get rolled back.
He wins the primary, but wins the General, and there is the worst scenario. There isn't a potential congressional make up in the works.. at all.. that will work with him to make his agenda happen... sooo, he will either have to compromise and give in to establishment on some issues in order to get issues he's most passionate about to move forward.. some.. thereby becomeing just another poltician OR he will stick to his guns, maintain the integrity for which he is famous and become the worst, most ineffectual presiden of all time.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Certainly not on guns or otehr social issues.
But Hillary will ultimately have the same advantage that Bill did. They can use the situation to pass through the Corporate Conservative agenda that she supports anyway. She can pay off her corporate friends, gut Social Security and blame it on the GOP Congress
Amimnoch
(4,558 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)denbot
(9,901 posts)November is a long way off.
hack89
(39,171 posts)It will be over, one way or another, after Super Tuesday.
bec
(107 posts)Clinton will get the "low information" voters to vote for her, purely because of her name.
cantbeserious
(13,039 posts)Last edited Tue Nov 3, 2015, 08:56 AM - Edit history (1)
eom
aikoaiko
(34,183 posts)And he was never going to beat her in a traditional campaign. His only hope was to do it differently and he earned a big chunk of support of likely Democratic voters 25-35% doing it that way.
Except for his supporters, no one that those numbers were even possible.
Lots of HRC will say "I told you so" if she gets the nomination, but they never thought he would get as close as he has either.
Bernie will have to bring out a near miracle to win the nomination, but its not impossible despite the resources and connections of the HRC campaign. After all, he's more than half-way there.
freedom fighter jh
(1,782 posts)not that of the voting public.
Clearly Hillary has the party's support and Bernie does not, so why don't Sanders and his supporters just give up?
sarcasm
Edited to add sarcasm note
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)He doesnt have them.....not just the structure.....the Democratic voters DO want her...in spite of all the poo flung from the right and left.....they still want her..whether it fits your narrative of the scenario or not.
840high
(17,196 posts)Ky? dem was leading in all polls. He lost.
freedom fighter jh
(1,782 posts)It says Bernie can't win because he doesn't have support within the Democratic Party. It's talking not about voters generally, but about people within the party power structure.
But it should be the people's votes that count.
It's too soon to say whom the Democratic voters want; there has not been any voting yet.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)freedom fighter jh
(1,782 posts)I don't know what part of my post you're referring to.
It's too soon to say whom the Democratic voters want?
Agony
(2,605 posts)very changeable facts in fact.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)in the general, he doesn't have to be elected president to be a great success. Also those uninvolved older people he helped wake up and bring to the fray.
I don't see Bernie as in trouble because I never expected him to win the primary. Notably, I don't see him needing to drop out before then, which would mean he was "in trouble."
As it is, he seems to be doing quite well and has lots of time to spread his message around America. Go Bernie!
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)I'll tell my grandchildren exactly how and why it came to this, and the dinos will get a rough treatment in my version
mymomwasright
(302 posts)Is that Bernie and Elizabeth will hopefully still be in there to "check" her when she inevitably starts paying back to all her benefactors. I know some would like to see her or Bernie as VP, but I believe that would be "selling out" their principles to run alongside her.
sgtbenobo
(327 posts)4 years then O'mally. then president, Warren.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)rejoice. Yeah, I know. Hide. But it had to be said.
MannyGoldstein
(34,589 posts)On Tue Nov 3, 2015, 11:31 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
And all the corporate-fellating zombies
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=760802
REASON FOR ALERT
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ALERTER'S COMMENTS
This broad brush insult is over the top.
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postatomic
(1,771 posts)Sure, they eat but can they "eat"? Sorry, big The Walking Dead fan here.
saturnsring
(1,832 posts)isn't helping?
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)You have got to be kidding!?
This is really Bernie's strategy if he is elected President??? Really?
Wow what a joke!
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)There is also zero reason for Bernie to be running if there is essentially nothing different he would be able to accomplish than any generic Democrat.
It's a huge waste of time, money and effort.
Vinca
(50,303 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)No Democrat will.
So this idea that if he won everything would change or be different is silly.
Vinca
(50,303 posts)I guess I'm thinking mindset rather than what can get done before the next census and change in voting districts. IMO, Bernie seems to care more about the average person and will at least bring the issues to the forefront in neon lights. Hillary would be a fine POTUS, I just connect more with Bernie.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)for their campaign workers and volunteers? I haven't seen anything mentioned and wonder if his campaign is doing any real formal planning in regards to staff and volunteers.
Gothmog
(145,554 posts)Sanders is running to push his issues. Even Sanders campaign manager admitted that Sanders' main goal is to be considered to be a "serious" candidate. I keep reading articles hoping to see some signs of viability for the Sanders campaign in the general election. Here is a thread that is a good example. See http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251667157 if you read the last three paragraphs of the article cited in that thread, Sanders campaign manager does not outline a path to the nomination but a path to be a "serious" candidate.
Sanderss outsider campaign has been likened to Jesse Jacksons insurgent campaign in 1988it wasnt until the Wisconsin primary in April that Michael Dukakis defeated Jackson. But Devine thinks the more apt analogy to todays politics is 1984 when the combination of Gary Harts insurgency and Jacksons coalition of minority voters together almost beat Walter Mondale. Jackson never received support from the institutional party, but he demanded respect. If we register, as Jesse Jackson did, millions of people, that would be a huge lift for the party in Senate races. And for whichever Democrat reaches the magic number of delegates next year to secure the nomination.
The idea that Sanders is good for the Democratic Party is a hard lesson for Clinton to appreciate in the heat of battle. But hes got voters fired up and ready to go, and Democrats need that energy.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/12/bernie-sanders-s-strategist-this-is-how-we-win.html
The apparent goal of this campaign is not for Sanders to be the nominee but to be considered a serious candidate who might almost beat Hillary Clinton.
This article is silent on what Sanders intend to do in a general election contest in that it appears that Sanders campaign manager does not expect that Sanders will be the nominee.
Again, Sanders needs to come up with a good explanation as to how he is viable in a general election if he wants to expand the base. I keep looking for a good explanation and I have yet to see anything close.
MattSh
(3,714 posts)and electing Hillary ensures that America will remain in crisis. Think hard America.
Oh, who the hell do I think I'm fooling. America will once again vote against its best interests, because thinking IS hard.
sonofspy777
(360 posts)imagine it as well!
tishaLA
(14,176 posts)Sen Sanders is more a symptom of it
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Getting your name on the Virginia primary ballot for the presidency is the most costly in terms of both money and organizational capability in the entire nation.
I sincerely doubt his campaign will be up to the task.
Response to MohRokTah (Reply #48)
Post removed
zappaman
(20,606 posts)zappaman
(20,606 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)I hope the admins are dealing with that juror.
That juror doesn't belong here either.
Bernin4U
(812 posts)The game is shit.
They question is, why do you continue to want to play it? Why can't you find the stones to say "No more"?
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)through on voting, the seniors. This puts votes in Clinton's column, there are young people also for Hillary and women are pulling for Hillary because we know she is the better qualified candidate. She has the strength to stand for what she believes in and not try to hide behind some excuse of how she voted because she takes responsibility for her actions.
840high
(17,196 posts)bridge group.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)840high
(17,196 posts)article recently how Sanders resonates with seniors. Sorry I didn't save the link.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)Meanwhile, I will be talking to people in my community, I will drive seniors to the polls, and no amount of "I'm concerned he can't win" will keep me from doing so.
RandySF
(59,224 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)in the ramp up to N.H. there seems to be an awful lot of "Bernie can't win" posts.
Guess what? Obama couldn't either.
RandySF
(59,224 posts)He'll get killed on Super Tuesday
You?
Excuse me if I am dubious of your assertions. It's not over, so don't count your delegate chickens before they hatch.
The same thing played out in 2007, and of course Hillary Clinton won.
Oh wait ...
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Because their own candidate suxs so bad.
It's totally boring equine excrement, flamebait for the less fortunate, red meat for the rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth warmongers.
Nice imagery "his campaign has been taking on water faster than the Lusitania".
Sunk by a German U-Boat. Subtlety seems to be a lost art these days.
slipslidingaway
(21,210 posts)carelessly on people of other nations.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)that their votes aren't needed, and they might end up taking you seriously.
Haughty is the attitude that resonates from such commentary.
Since it's a coronation, then I might as well vote for who I want to in the Primary, since she is inevitable. The candidate and supporters that believe anyone is entitled to my vote *IF* are riding the cusp of destroying the loyalty of otherwise steadfast (D) voters.
That worked out for People United Means Action Dems, didn't it?
Make no mistake. Voters do not forget wholesale insults of their issues.
slipslidingaway
(21,210 posts)carelessly take the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and trusts Bush with his judgement as to when to strike.
Maybe I needed the sarcasm tag, think we are on the same page here.
For some reason this song came to mind, one of my all time favorites.
"If you smile at me, I will understand
'Cause that is something everybody everywhere does
In the same language
I can see by your coat, my friend
You're from the other side
There's just one thing I got to know
Can you tell me please, who won the war ?
riversedge
(70,299 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)it seems to make people here feel better knowing there is no way Bernie can win. Seriously, just like November 2007.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)As far as I'm concerned, he was never going to win. Even if he were todrop out tomorrow, he's already far exceeded anyone's expectations, maybe even his own.
Bernie has shown that there is a growing young, enthusiastic bloc of liberal voters in this country. This bloc isn't quite mature enough to propell a candidate to the presidency yet, but it will be in the next decade.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)SunSeeker
(51,698 posts)postatomic
(1,771 posts)I see this thread is full of snark and such but these numbers are very significant. Ya' see, Democrats watch out for other Democrats.