So where does Newt come back?

[WI_DEM]

Mitt seems to have large leads in Nevada and Arizona. Maine will probably go for Romney (though Paul might have a shot, too). In Missouri, Newt isn't even on ballot (though, interestingly, according to a new PPP poll, Santorum is ahead of Newt in Missouri), I imagine if Mittens leads in Nevada and Arizona he probably has an edge in Colorado? Mitt leads in a new poll in Michigan. So that leaves Minnesota caucuses next week. Any chance that Newt can win there? Then March 3 is the Washington caucuses--I think Mittens and Paul probably will duke it out there. So looking at "Super Tuesday", I could imagine that the Grinch could conceivably win in these states: Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee (he's not on ballot in Virginia!) and maybe (though I think Paul might be the one who could do best) in Alaska caucus and Idaho caucues. I've seen polls where Gingrich is leading in Ohio, but those can change fast if it looks like Mittens is 'inevitable'.

So I hope that Santorum can win in Missouri, Maybe Paul can win in Maine and/or Washington (caucus states) and then see if Newton can take Minnesota (PPP had a poll showing Newt up by 2-1 a week ago, but with it being a caucus and only about 60,000 people anticipated--somebody more organized like Paul or even Santorum could do better. I think Newt's best shot to win some states will come on Super Tuesday and if he gets another infusion of money he should work hard to take Ohio.

Full Primary/Caucus Calendar

January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus) – Results

January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary) – Results

January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary) – Results

January 31, 2012 Florida (primary) – Results

February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)

February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)

February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)
Minnesota (caucus)
Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri

February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)
Michigan (primary)

March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)

March 6, 2012
(Super Tuesday) Alaska (caucus)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)

[Sherman A1]

1. Not in the Missouri Primary

in which he failed to get on the ballot. That said, it is only a beauty contest as the real decisions will be made later at a caucus of some type.

[WI_DEM]

2. Yep, I pointed that out. Santorum is leading, however.

[morningfog]

3. I agree. Newt is just an attack dog without wins until Super Tuesday.

Georgia, TN, maybe OK? Georgia is big though (76) and winner take all.

Only 230 delegates up for grabs between now and Super Tuesday, with 466 on ST. There is really no reason for anyone to get out before ST. After that, depending on how it shapes up, it is no longer about who has the momentum. It will be a long delegate counting process. Until Newt runs out of money or has decided he is satisfied in his blood quest, it can go on until for a long time.

[HockeyMom]

4. One Freeper even mentioned UTAH!!!!!!

I suppose he has never heard where the headquarters of the LDS Church is?

[Major Hogwash]

7. Hahahahaha!!!!!!

That's funnier than h-e-double-hockey-sticks!!

LoL

[DCBob]

5. Gingrich's appeal is narrowing.

Seems his best shot now are just the deep south bible belt states and there are not enough of them to really matter. He needs a another SC like event to change the dynamics or else Romney is just going to cruise to the nom. I hope he stays in all the way just to keep the pressure on the Mittster who will no doubt continue to say dumb things and give us lots more ad material once the real campaign starts.

[customerserviceguy]

6. I give Noot some possibility of Minnesota

although the rest of February will be bleak for him. His best hope is that the Paulbots knock Romney off the pedestal in a few caucus states, like Maine, Nevada, or Colorado. Maybe even Santorum will win the Missouri beauty contest, as the sole anti-Mitt. If that happens, look for Noot to take Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and possibly Ohio. If he comes in a respectable 2nd in Virginia with a write-in, that can be counted as a victory, as well.

I see Mittens winning Michigan, but if Noot comes in a strong second, look for that to be played hard by the media. I also see him winning Alaska, Idaho (big Mormon population), Arizona, Vermont, and probably North Dakota, in 2008 Mitt played well in western states and caucuses. I guess I can see Romney winning Washington as well, Noot is not well known or popular there, although I expect the Paulbots to be out in full force in the only state Pat Robertson organized well enough to win.

[Alexander]

12. There is no option for a write-in on the ballot in Virginia.

All the votes in the Virginia primary will be going to either Romney or Paul.

[customerserviceguy]

14. Interesting, didn't know that

I guess Paul becomes the anti-Mitt by default. If Gingrich and Santorum both ask VA Republicon voters to vote for Paul as a protest against Mitt, it would blunt any claim of victory on Paul's part there.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. good job, pulling this info together. Unfortunately, I think Gingrich is on his last

legs and will drop out soon.

He just looks so worn out and dejected. I can't blame him - Mittens has crushed him.

They say his campaign is in shambles and he doesn't seem to give a shit anymore.

[davidpdx]

9. Stick a fork in Newt, he's done

This thing will be over March 6nd and Romney will be anointed bishop of the Republican party.

Nice list.

[ncteechur]

10. He doesn't. There will be a payoff for him to quit. Soon.

[TBF]

11. Does he have the money to continue? Super Tues. is still a month away -

if I were him I'd cut my losses now.

[Alexander]

13. Newt's holding a press conference at 11 PM EST tonight after Nevada votes. My guess is he drops out.

He was polling far ahead of Romney in Florida, a semi-Southern state right next door to his home state of Georgia. He promoted space exploration more than any other Republican in the field.

At the end of the day, he still got trounced by 14 points and his attempt to change the rules afterward (by demanding the delegates be selected proportionally instead of winner-take-all) isn't going to work and just looks like sour grapes.

Florida was already punished by having the number of delegates cut in half, and I'd bet all the money I have that if Newt won Florida he would've wanted it to stay winner-take-all.

You're right, the calender up through Super Tuesday favors Romney a lot more than it does Gingrich.

Keep in mind, Romney already won a lot of the upcoming states back in 2008 back when he was in a much weaker position. In '08, he won Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Michigan.

Even looking at Super Tuesday, Romney already won a few of those states back in '08 as well, like Alaska, Massachusetts and North Dakota. Since Paul is his only opponent in Virginia, it looks as though Romney will win there too.

Newt's best bets on Super Tuesday are Georgia - his home state - and Tennessee, and I'd say even Tennessee isn't a safe bet for him. Achieving only 2 or 3 primary victories in the first 2 months of voting is not going to cut it for Gingrich.

The Republican primary is already starting to take its toll on Romney, who is now falling behind in the polls against Obama both nationally and in key swing states. The latest New Hampshire poll had him down by 10, and the latest Missouri poll had them both tied.

Add in the improving economic news on top of that, and it's clear that if the Republicans want a ghost of a chance of beating Obama, they will need to end this primary quickly and get everyone to fall in line behind Romney.

My guess is Newt has already been ushered out of the race, probably with a mix of threats and promises. I imagine the power brokers told him he'd be persona non grata in the party if he destroyed Romney's chances in the general election, and perhaps an offer was made to Newt, like a Cabinet position or an ambassadorship, if he backs out now.

On top of that, I can't see Sheldon Adelson wanting to keep throwing his money at Gingrich if it isn't going to amount to anything. As another DUer pointed out, Adelson is a casino magnate and surely he knows how to play the odds.