Inside the mind of a Republican voter...

[Drunken Irishman]

I just had a discussion with a Republican voter who is convinced Obama will lose. It's not one of those, "Obama is likely to lose" or "Obama might lose...", it's full on, "Obama is done, stick a fork in him!"

Well, this always intrigues me because I'm not quite sure how people come to the conclusions that they do. Why does he think Romney will win?

First, I pointed out to him that Obama leads in 10 of the last 12 most recent polls. He came back that the polls were bias or wrong or of registered voters and not likely voters. When I pointed out that a great deal of polls, including Rasmussen, were of likely voters, and they still showed Obama in the lead, he dismissed them - Obama can't be leading! No one likes him.

Okay. Fair enough. Obama isn't a historically popular president. I can concede that. So, if he's so unpopular, why isn't Romney running away with this?

Well ... uh ... the internals show Romney winning! He's even going to win Michigan!

Okay, so, why is it that every impartial observer, from Nate Silver to Intrade, predict an Obama victory right now?

Nate Silver is fooling himself!

Okay ... uh ... so, why hasn't Romney consistently led in state polls with likely voters?

Reagan was trailing Carter only weeks from the election!

Okay ... well ... no, he really wasn't. In July, 1980, Reagan opened up a 42-27 point lead on Carter.

But he only took the lead AFTER the Republican Convention! It's deja vu all over again, browski!

Actually, no, while Carter did lead Reagan through much of spring, Reagan overtook Carter in June, 1980, a month prior to the Republican Convention.

Well Romney is out-raising Obama! And Obama has spent all his money!

Romney is out-raising Obama, but the margins aren't considerable and Obama is nowhere near spending all his money.

His base won't vote, though! Republicans are fired up!

Are they really? Again ... fired up and it's not showing up in the polls.

The polls are bogus, man! Obama is toast!

Okay, buddy, whatever you say.

[abumbyanyothername]

1. Mind. Republican Voter.

Non sequitur.

[Summer Hathaway]

2. Not fair.

Republican voters do have minds - they are just dark, dreary places where facts go to die.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

6. And they're dank and all spider-webby (nt)

[Pilotguy]

3. You know...

When I come across people who are convinced Romney is going to win I don't try to convince them otherwise. I just nod in agreement knowing that Obama's victory in November will be that much sweeter when all of these geniuses are scratching their heads trying to figure out how they could be so wrong.

[Cosmocat]

4. That is the general framework of ANY discussion with a republican

the personal belief in a desperate search of something to confirm that belief - facts and reality be damned.

[rug]

5. Needs pictures.