2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew batch of congressional race polls released...
Polls: Five different Democratic internal polls came out on Thursday, in five different races: CA-03, FL-18, FL-26, MI-03, and NY-01. And while the results individually look good for Team Blue (Dems lead in four of the five surveys, and full details are provided on each below), it's also worth noting more globally that we haven't been seeing as many internals from Republicans. As my colleague Steve Singiser noted earlier this month, Democrats have released a wide majority of the private polls so far this cycleand that trend only continued yesterday. It's hard to view that as bad news for Dems.
CA-03: The House Majority PAC has a new poll from GBA Strategies of the race in California's 3rd which backs up a one-day robopoll released by the DCCC's in-house shop last month. The HMP survey puts Dem Rep. John Garamendi up 54-39 over Republican Kim Vann, very similar to the D-Trip's 52-37 spread. Vann didn't respond to the prior set of numbers; let's see if she reacts differently this time.
MI-03: Democrat Steve Pestka is touting a new internal poll from GQR that has GOP freshman Rep. Justin Amash leading 50-42, which Pestka says represents a gain of three points for the challenger since an unreleased February survey.
FL-18: This is very welcome news: A new DCCC poll from Grove Insight shows Democrat Patrick Murphy edging Republican freshman Allen West by a single point, 47-46. That's very similar to the numbers Murphy himself put out in early May, which put the race at 45 apiece and which West never responded to.
FL-26: Everything's coming up Milhouse for Democrat Joe Garcia: On Thursday morning, he was added to the DCCC's Red to Blue list; on Thursday afternoon, he released an internal poll from Benenson Strategy Group showing him up 49-40 over GOP freshman David Rivera.
NY-01: Understandably, Dem Rep. Tim Bishop's trying to show that that overheated Politico story alleging he engaged in some sort of pay-to-play with a constituent (regarding a fireworks display!) hasn't damaged his standing with voters. To that end, he's out with new polling from Global Strategy Group showing him with a healthy 53-39 lead over Republican Randy Altschuler. That's little changed from his last internal (all the way back in March), which had him on top 53-36.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/31/1126092/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-Democrats-release-five-new-internal-House-polls-and-lead-in-four?showAll=yes
I like this.Beating Allen West would be beautiful.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)He was a superb insurance commissioner for us. Along with Kamela Harris he is one of the real bright spots here.
http://www.garamendi.org/
Brother Buzz
(36,422 posts)Through gerrymandering, the new district in which he's seeking office has a lot more red in the mix. Upside, he's running against Kim Vann, who is proving to be a genuine airhead.
redqueen
(115,103 posts)Thanks for the updates!