Bernie's Independent problem in NH

[DCBob]

The PPP NH poll that came out today highlighted a potential major problem for Bernie Sanders. NH is a partially open primary meaning undeclared voters — those not registered with any party — can vote in either party primary. They cannot vote in both so they must pick one or the other at voting time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary

The PPP poll indicates that Clinton leads Sanders 48/39 among actual Democrats. Bernie matches that by an identical 48/39 lead among Independents.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_120315.pdf

The problem for Bernie is that its very possible many of those Independents that say they are going to vote for him now might very well end up voting in the Republican primary. This could easily happen if the Republican contest is seen as more competitive, more relevant and more interesting which will probably be the case as many now see Hillary as the likely nominee no matter what happens in NH.

If Sanders is counting on all those Independents to vote for him on election day he might be counting chickens pre-hatch.

If Bernie can't win NH, which is considered prime fertile territory for him given its location and demographics, where can he win??

Oh Vermont.. that's right!

[highprincipleswork]

1. Thanks for your concern. Me, I'll just keep working on Bernie's campaign.

Thanks for your concern. Me, I'll just keep working on Bernie's campaign.

[Cali_Democrat]

2. Good. I don't want those people voting in the Democratic primary anyways.

Let them vote in the GOP primary if they want.

They can have their Republicans!

[DCBob]

3. I also read there were some Independents saying there were going to vote in Democratic party..

just to mess things up. Looks like Operation Chaos may be back.

[TM99]

8. Independents pretty much break even

in support for either Dems or Repubs.

So this is nothing really. Some will vote one way, and some will vote the other. The problems are for Clinton who will need all of the left leaning votes to not only beat Sanders in the primary but win the GE.

Not going to happen.

[DCBob]

10. Do you take pleasure in stating our nominee will not win the GE??

Even laughing about it?? Weird mentality for a supposed Democrat.

[TM99]

40. I take no pleasure.

It is a strong possibility that y'all won't face.

I am not a Democrat. Well, right now I am in order to vote in AZ for Sanders, but I have been and will return to unaffiliated.

[R B Garr]

69. Bingo. Ross Perot voters who are Clinton haters

from even way before the Arkansas Project days do have a weird mentality. He even hated Bill before his run for Governor.

[ESKD]

33. Recent polls shows me that Clinton is garnering 8% of the Independent's support

It's no wonder why they want to act like it's a purity issue now.

[DFW]

38. The Independent's support?

What does a British newspaper have to do with all this?

[TM99]

41. That is not enough. n/t

[SidDithers]

45. Welcome to DU...

Sid

[Warren Stupidity]

5. "Those people" are the largest group of NH voters.

Your ignorance of our state politics is amusing. To win the primary you better get the vast majority of independents. More to the point you win the state the same way.

[Cali_Democrat]

19. If they vote in the GOP primary, they're GOPers.

They may not call themselves GOPers, but they are.

[Warren Stupidity]

21. Can't help you out if you insist on deliberate

cluelessness. NH is a swing state where the independent voters outnumber democrats and republicans. But I agree, you should convince the Clinton campaign to encourage independen voters to not vote for her.

[Fawke Em]

47. "Those people" are also the largest voting block in the country.

And most Independents don't like the status quo, which is why they're not affiliated with one party or the other.

They also aren't Clinton fans, by and large.

[Warren Stupidity]

58. Well it seems we should drive them away.

They are not sufficiently loyal.

[NorthCarolina]

6. "Those people"??

Really?

They are talking about "independent voters" NOT "GOP voters".

"Those people"?? Really?

[Cali_Democrat]

17. If they vote in a GOP primary, I consider them to be GOP voters.

Don't give a damn about them.

[Bjorn Against]

9. Democrats can not win without the support of independents

If you say the Republicans can have them then you are essentially saying that Republicans can win every election. Neither party has a majority of voters on their own, independent support is necessary if you want any chance of victory.

[DCBob]

12. True and Bernie cannot win the Dem primary without a big vote from Independents.

My point is he might not get that.

[Bjorn Against]

14. Bernie has more support from Independents than Hillary

I don't expect many of the Bernie supporting independents to switch to the GOP, if they are supporting Bernie chances are they are left leaning independents.

[DCBob]

15. True, but it remains to be seen how many switch.

I am predicting it will be more that you or the Bernie campaign might think.

[HooptieWagon]

16. I predict it's fewer than you predict.

Every bit as valid, and more reality based. Left-leaning independents supporting Sanders aren't very likely to veer hard right to vote in the republican primary. Right-leaning independents supporting Clinton more likely to jump ship and vote republican.

[riversedge]

62. Yes, but Christie is the wild card. He passes himself off as moderate and is rising in the polls

[DCBob]

64. Valid point.. partially.

Where is the proof Hillary independents are right-leaning or Sanders are left leaning? I suspect its not that cut and dry with the independents supporting Hillary or Sanders. Probably an even split.

Furthermore, I think the biggest motivating factor for independents to choose to vote in the R primary will be more interest in a higher profile primary and feeling their vote will be more consequential.

[Warren Stupidity]

4. The poll is shit and Sanders would win the primary

Easily if it were held today.

[DCBob]

7. PPP is one of the most respected polling operations in the country.

In fact their numbers are pretty much in-line with other polls that have come out recently. The last several polls have it a tight contest. I suspect that is correct.

[Fawke Em]

48. Not this election cycle.

Their affiliation with Clinton's camp has made them biased.

[riversedge]

63. ha ha.

[misterhighwasted]

18. LOL. bernie couldn't win the primary if he was the only one running. He is THAT BAD!

No one likes bernie but a handful of keyboard warriors. I think maybe 2 people endorsed bernie. And the GOP could run their worst candidate against bernie & they'd win.

He's currently stuck in the same spot he's been at for half a year.
He has a good stump speech full of fist pounding one-liners, but other than that, he's got nobody significant enough to win him an election except maybe for the Vt Senate.

There ya have it.
..bernie isn't winning anything this election
Thanks anyway.

[bobbobbins01]

34. You must have really big hands.

[Kentonio]

43. No-one likes Bernie..

Except for the 750,000 people who donated to his campaign, and the hundreds of thousands who have attended his rallies, and the millions represented in the polls showing him as high as 35% at points..

[misterhighwasted]

57. Sorta like "Everybody Hates Hillary". That ridiculous OP, remember? Bet y'all rec'd that one

Only thing is Hillary is still 30pts ahead of bernie.
Explains why he's suddenly against gun when his past Senate record says otherwise.
Explains why he's suddenly stumping for PP, when his past writings tell a dark & opposite story.
Every single statement bernie is now making public notice is showing his desperation to pander for votes.
Ya bernie is just the guy we need in the WHouse. NOT!
Explains why the republicans are "standing with bernie".
He can be bought, sold, manupilated & hasn't a clue how he'd make all those stump speech wishes a reality.

Why is it that virtually nobody will attach their name in support of bernie? No endorsements, but a small handful.

He would be the most ineffective president of all Dems ever.He's a proverbial wishy washy guy that has lost control of any message he once had.
He is quickly disappearing into history along with many other campaigners who ended up showing themselves to be something their past says they never really were at all.

Face it, bernie is a small State guy & that limited governance spells "no clue" when he stands before the big world.

He'll always be 30% bernie.
He gives me the creeps, frankly.

[Kentonio]

60. What a crock, especially that smear about PP. This place should be above that kind of dirt.

[misterhighwasted]

61. Its bernies dirt, not mine. He said it, not me.

I'd see it as a big red flag no matter who it belonged to.
Creeps me out every time he stumps for women's issues. And I am definately not alone.
Later.

[Kentonio]

65. He's fought for equality for his entire career.

No matter how much you try and misrepresent a badly written critique of men's attitudes back then as somehow representing his own views. So much for a clean campaign.

[misterhighwasted]

66. No he did not fight for women's equality his entire career

It serves him now.
This has never been a clean campaign. Who are you trying to kid. No one believes that at this point.
Keyboard warriors, social media for starters.
check the mirror.

[misterhighwasted]

67. Apparently NOT. But his mgr did write up a nice pacifying press release

..for all the women who waited for someone wanting to be Americas next leader to vote in their favor.
30%bernie was a no show.
They all noticed.
Bye bernie

[Kentonio]

68. You might want to think twice

Before criticizing a senator who is running for President for not turning up for senate votes. It could get awkward..

[RandySF]

11. I believe there are no real independents.

Any "I" that votes in the Democratic primary is probably someone who votes for Dems on a regular basis.

[DCBob]

13. Probably but..

I suspect there are quite a few who say they are voting Dem now but will switch to vote Repub on election day. I think they will think their vote will mean more if they vote in the Republican primary.

[jfern]

20. PPP polled both primaries

It's just as likely that some independents who said they'd vote in the Republican primary would switch to vote for Bernie.

[DCBob]

22. Registered Republicans or Democrats cant switch

Only unaffiliated.

[bunnies]

24. Anyone can switch. You chose the ballot that you want to vote in. NH has same-day registration.

Youre wrong.

[DCBob]

27. Do you have link to that information?

I dont think you can change affiliation on election day.

[bunnies]

32. I live here. In NH.

We have same day registration. Affiliation means nothing. When I go to vote in the primary they ask me what ballot I want. If I chose the R ballot, my registration gets changed to R as a result. If I chose a D ballot - they change my registration to D.

I moved in Feb. Im not registered to vote right now. Doesnt matter. I can register on primary day. At the polls. We have open primaries here. I could vote in the R primary If I chose to. Even if I were a registered D.

In 2008 I was asked which primary I would like the ballot for. Ive been a registered D since I was able to vote. Party affiliation is meaningless here. The majority of our electorate is unaffiliated.

[DCBob]

36. You are mistaken.

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/27/1440958/-Bernie-NH-supporters-take-note-New-Hampshire-has-semi-closed-primaries

[DCBob]

46. NH has a semi-closed primary.

"If you are a registered member of a party, you may change your registration at any primary, however, you will not be allowed to vote in that primary. Undeclared voters may declare a party and vote at any primary. The law allows an undeclared voter to declare a party at the polls, vote the ballot of that party, and then change their party affiliation back to undeclared simply by completing the form available from the Supervisors of the Checklist at the polling place. "

NH VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINES

October 30, 2015 - Last day to change your party affiliation prior to the Presidential Primary.

http://sos.nh.gov/RegVote.aspx

This all means you cannot change party affiliation now or on primary election day contrary to what you posted. Only Independents/unaffiliated can switch and vote in either parties primary as I stated previously.

[bunnies]

55. I suppose the poll workers are doing it wrong then.

Everyone is asked which ballot they want.

[DCBob]

56. I think you are referring to unregistered voters.

Apparently they can register and choose any ballot on election day. The discussion was about registered voters. Different rules apply.

[jfern]

26. I'm talking about independents

[DCBob]

29. Unaffiliated are independents.

[bunnies]

25. DCBob doesnt know how voting in NH works. I can choose a R or a D primary ballot on voting day...

regardless of affiliation.

[DCBob]

31. Please provide proof.

[DCBob]

39. Apparently you are the one who doesn't know..

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/27/1440958/-Bernie-NH-supporters-take-note-New-Hampshire-has-semi-closed-primaries

[Fawke Em]

50. You do realize most people don't register with a party unless they have to.

I live in an open primary state. I vote Democratic, but never once have registered.

I'm willing to bet that most people don't register with a party in New Hampshire unless they're die-hards.

[DCBob]

53. NH is semi-closed primary.

The question related to being able to change which primary a voter wished to vote. Only independents/unaffiliated can do that. Anyone already registered as a Dem or Repub has to vote in the primary they are registered with.

[kristopher]

54. Let's go straight to the NH Sec. of State, shall we?

Voting in Party Primaries
Frequently Asked Questions


Can I vote in a primary if I am an undeclared voter?
Yes. An undeclared voter may vote in a state primary or a presidential primary. You will be required to choose either a Republican or Democratic ballot when you go to vote.

How do I return to undeclared status after voting in a state primary or presidential primary?
When you vote on a party ballot in a state or presidential primary, you become a registered member of that party unless you fill out a card to or sign a list to return to undeclared status with the supervisors of the checklist before leaving the polling place.


How do I change my party affiliation?
You may change your party affiliation with the clerk of the town or city where you are domiciled or at any scheduled meeting of the supervisors of the checklist except for during the period of time between the first day of the filing period for the primary election and/or the presidential primary election and the date of the primary election itself.


Where can I look up my voter registration status?
Voters that have provided their date of birth on a voter registration form may go to the Secretary of State’s Registered Voter web link . The person must enter their first name, last name, town or city, date of birth, and complete the security entry. If the name, town or city, and date of birth are the same as what was provided in their voter registration form, their name, voter ID, and party affiliation, if any, will be displayed.

What if my party affiliation that is displayed on the Secretary of State’s website is not correct?
Voters should contact their local supervisors of the checklist or town/city clerk.

What are the official political parties in the state?
At this time, the official political parties in the State of New Hampshire are the Democratic and Republican parties.
“Party shall mean any political organization which at the preceding state general election received at least 4 percent of the total number of votes cast for any one of the following: the office of governor or the offices of United States Senators.” RSA 652:11

Does the state website feature contact information and/or links to official political party web sites?
No.
http://sos.nh.gov/VotePartyPrimFAQ.aspx

So, the "Independent" voter (referred to here as unaffiliated) can vote in either party's primary and then return to unaffiliated status before they leave. If you are a D or R, you have until 2 weeks prior to the primary to change your affiliation.

[DCBob]

59. Your last statement is not correct.

If you are D or R the deadline to change affiliation was Oct 30.

NH VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINES

October 30, 2015 - Last day to change your party affiliation prior to the Presidential Primary.

http://sos.nh.gov/RegVote.aspx

[bunnies]

23. I live in NH. Save your concern.

Unless Hillary cries like last time, Its a lock.

[99Forever]

28. Bwahahahaha...

... heartfelt concern from the bubble people.

True fucking funny!




Keep it up DCBob, I needed a laugh.


Bless your heart.

[DCBob]

30. My pleasure.

[MFrohike]

35. Thanks

I had always wondered about concern trolling. Thanks for the great example!

[DCBob]

37. Not concerned.. just stating an issue.

[NurseJackie]

42. I see this mentioned often: "CONCERN-trolling" and "thanks-for-your-CONCERN" ...

... but I'm not entirely sure what this is referring to. Is it a concern-trolling an actual "thing" that's prohibited/discouraged ... or is the word "concern" just a snarky way to be dismissive.

[DCBob]

44. Yeah, kind of lazy catch-all retort when a poster has nothing intelligent to say.

Its seems quite common on the site lately.

[MFrohike]

70. I agree

Though I think passive-aggressive insults designed to skirt the TOS might be a bigger problem. What say you?

[MFrohike]

72. Just a thought

I hear the Google can help with lack of knowledge.

[NurseJackie]

73. Thank you for your concern.

[MFrohike]

74. Yeah, you're doing it wrong

As they say, nice try.

[NurseJackie]

75. LOL

Who cares?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. That's how they roll...

This unpleasantness should end when Madame Secretary dispacthes of the Vermont independent in early March if not sooner.

[NurseJackie]

51. If all the hardcore Hillary-haters decide to take-their-leave, this web site will ...

... probably become a very quiet place.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. I can't wait until she secures the nomination.

This board will be great again.

[MFrohike]

71. Clearly

Your deep concern and compassion flow like honey through the tubes of the interwebs.