Poll: Clinton expands favorability lead over Sanders.

[JaneyVee]

Less than two months ahead of the first contests in the Democratic presidential primary, Hillary Clinton's net favorable rating among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents has risen even higher when compared to that of her closest rival in Bernie Sanders.

According to the results of Gallup's U.S. Daily survey conducted in November and released Friday, the former secretary of state's net favorable rating is 21 points higher than the Vermont senator's, an increase of 8 points from late September and early October.

More than three-in-four Democrats and leaners surveyed — 76 percent — said they had a favorable opinion of Clinton, while 18 percent said they did not, for a positive rating of +58 points. In the last survey, Clinton had a net favorability rating of +51 points, with 73 percent to 22 percent seeing her in a positive light.

In the case of Sanders, 51 percent gave him favorable marks, while 14 percent said they had an unfavorable view of him. Taken together, a slight increase in Clinton's favorability rating and a slight decrease in Sanders' resulted in the overall favorability disparity between the two candidates, who along with Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, will next debate on Dec. 19 in Manchester, New Hampshire.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/poll-democrats-2016-hillary-clinton-216422#ixzz3tMNr9goL

[leftofcool]

1. But, we keep hearing that Democrats just don't like her.

[still_one]

5. They were out in full force yesterday for sure

[Bubzer]

33. Well, and for 14%, that appears to be true. Of course, that number could go up.

It's not likely to go down though.

[Cha]

48. So sayeth the DU bubble.. fortunately the polls in RL are saying differently.

[Scootaloo]

76. Well, her supporters are vastly more invested in hating Sanders than liking her.

[SidDithers]

2. DU rec...

Let the unskewing begin.

Sid

[workinclasszero]

34. Its incoming

no doubt.

[upaloopa]

3. Pop! There goes the low favorability myth

Can we put that "Hillary can't win the general because of low favorability" meme on the trash heap of living in denial myths?

[JaneyVee]

4. And her favorables will go even higher once...

She gets to debating these Repub clowns.

[kristopher]

9. Not until you show a 50%+ favorable in the total electorate

it's always been acknowledged that she is ahead of Bernie in the primary, but a significant reason for a lot of us to support him is that, based on her national 'unfavorables' and 'unlikeables' and 'doesn't share my values' numbers, we don't believe she has a hope in hell of winning the general.

The FACT that Hillary's supporters are unable to honestly and directly address that concern contributes greatly to our unease. The only reply that even makes an attempt at a reasonable response (unlike this straw man OP) is when someone claims that Bernie hasn't experienced the Republican attack machine yet.

That is acknowledged to be true, but our rejection of the validity of the argument as it goes to electability is based on both the broad appeal of Sander's platform and his extensive history of integrity.

[kristopher]

24. I'd much, much rather Bernie select a couple of non-corporate members, thank you anyway.

[ViseGrip]

65. ^^^this^^^

[Scootaloo]

77. And she'll look for whoever the republicans like the most, for a fast approval

[1StrongBlackMan]

10. Can we, at least put the part about ...

Favorability among independents to bed? This poll includes "Democratic leaning" independents. No one expects republican leaner to have a favorable opinion of any Democrat candidate, except for maybe that rand paul/Bernie intersectors.

[thesquanderer]

42. The path to victory includes those who don't necessarily lean your party's way.

It is not a given that "No one expects republican leaner to have a favorable opinion of any Democrat candidate." Reagan won with the votes of a tremendous number of people who would otherwise have been said to be Democratic leaning. Heck, in 2008, even Obama managed to receive the vote of 9% of the registered Republicans who voted, and he was black, besides! Really, crossover voting actually is a thing. As are independent voters who don't identify as leaning either way. Or those who "lean" one way but still remain very open to being swayed in the other direction.

So yes, HRC's favorability among reliable Democratic voters is high, but so is her unfavorability among others, and both groups need to be courted in the general. This is why I think Sanders would be the stronger candidate in November... but I don't think he has much of a chance of making it that far.

[ibegurpard]

44. apparently you have a listening problem

Hillary's favorable ratings with hardcover Democrats are not the problem.

[mcar]

6. K&R

[Thinkingabout]

7. K & R

[NurseJackie]

8. So that's, Hillary: +58 ... Bernie: +37 (Fifty-eight is *more* than thirty-seven, right?)

Just checking.

From what I often see here, it seems that someone could come to the opposite conclusion regarding Hillary's positives.

[NurseJackie]

29. It's unclear what's confusing to you. My only suggestion would be to read the article, then ...

... go here to see the calculations that illustrate the difference between Hillary's and Bernie's favorability minus unfavorability numbers. It's just math.

[Hortensis]

35. LOL. Here's something that's actually REAL, and interesting:

According to PPP, in New Hampshire, Chris Christie, who "has the momentum," rising from 9 to 10%, also had the highest favorability rating of ALL candidates.

Kinda puts this stuff in perspective. If nothing else, might make one wonder what's in the water up there.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/hillary-clinton/

[thesquanderer]

40. The sliver lining for Sanders supporters is...

...according to the same article, "Sanders is hindered in that a third of Democrats do not know enough about him to have an opinion, compared with only 6% of Democrats who don't have an opinion of Clinton." So he still has a lot of upside potential in achieving higher favorability.

If only the debates weren't minimal in number, and seemingly scheduled to minimize viewership. Oh well. But that's another thread.

[NurseJackie]

43. Anything is possible, I suppose. But I wonder what's likely to happen.

(As it turns out, I'd just responded to someone else who made a similar observation. Here's a quick cut/paste of a part of what I wrote.)

What will happen when those "no-opinion" voters DO finally develop an opinion? Obviously some of those newly-formed opinions will be positive, and some will be negative.

Is there any reason to believe that the "no-opinion-yet" voters will surge in Bernie's favor? Or will the newly formed opinions be split in similar proportions to what we're observing now?

[thesquanderer]

60. Assume "the newly formed opinions be split in similar proportions to what we're observing now"

The poll shows HRC favorable to unfavorable at 76% vs 18%, with the remaining 6% in the no opinion category. Likewise, Sanders is at 51% favorable vs 14% un, leaving 35% in the no opinion category (which their text referred to as "a third", and there is obviously some rounding going on).

Okay, so now let's multiply both Sanders figures by 1.45 to extrapolate what each would be if Sanders were to achieve the same proportions if in fact about 96% of the people had an opinion about him, to equate those figures to Hillary's.

Assuming the newly formed opinions split in similar proportions to existing opinions, Sanders would end up with 74% favorable, 20% un. The margin of error in the poll is +/- 4. So for all intents and purposes, HRC and BS favorability among Dems would likely be about identical.

Once you expand to include non Dems (i.e. the voting population in the general election), then Sanders starts looking better than HRC. But that's moot unless Sanders wins the nomination, which is unlikely. Which means, as I've said before, we'll probably end up with the weaker of the two candidates in the general... but luckily, either should be strong enough to win. Though if given the choice, I'd prefer the one who would win by more, as that should be the candidate with the stronger coattails.

[NurseJackie]

63. Thanks. (nt)

[MaggieD]

11. And another myth bites the dust

But that doesn't mean we won't keep hearing about how all the people LOVE Bernie and hate Hillary. Facts are irrelevant here, but thanks for posting them anyway.

[Hortensis]

36. Exactly like the GOP base/TPers. I'm struck by it constantly.

[MaggieD]

45. Yep. I have mentioned that many times on FB

To the Bernie peeps that troll Hillary's page. Impervious to facts.

[retrowire]

12. You're all going to be blindsided.

[img][/img]

[Robbins]

21. all i will say

is now clinton supporters are citing gallup which had romney winning in 2012.

as others have done their polling in 2007 at this time had her with big lead over obama

those who want to believe a discredited source like Gallup go ahead

[riversedge]

28. NAH--these voting Democrats do not live in bubble.

[MaggieD]

49. That's exactly right

Some folks clearly need to exit DU for a bit and take a look at reality for a few minutes. It's absurd to hear here, on a daily basis, that "the people support Bernie" when every poll shows differently. That she is a right winger when she was rated the 11th most liberal senator in congress. That unions support Bernie when the vast majority have endorsed Hillary. The list goes on and on.

At DU everything about this primary is the opposite of reality.

[Metric System]

30. And you're all going to have heart bern.

[Alfresco]

13. She's doing a great job of winning over the hearts and minds of the Democratic family.

We're with HER!

[Fuddnik]

20. Yeah, all 600 of them at her big rally in Orlando!

[Alfresco]

23. I'm glad you agree with me.

Have a wonderful day Fudd.

[PosterChild]

68. Actually all...

Actually all 76% of them. IMHO, rallies don't mean squat. The people who vote far, far, outnumber rally goers, and a lot of those rally goers don't vote.

[Hortensis]

15. Hillary's favorability increased over ALL gender and

generational groups.

For the past 8 years the right has kept her in the news, THEIR version. It looks like, now that people are actually looking at her, she's regaining the respect and appeal the right has worked so hard to destroy. (And spent so much money on.)

GO, Hillary!

[Hortensis]

32. Like your name. These days, I do too.

Keep your eyes on the prize. The next president will appoint at least 2 and as many as 4 Supreme Court justices.

[UglyGreed]

25. Looks like Correct the Record

is hard at work, we will see if this is just smoke and mirrors.....

[Kentonio]

26. Always humerous to see people..

Who can look at those numbers as a Clinton supporter and be happy. The real story of those numbers is the following..

Familiarity: Clinton 94%, Sanders 65%.

With plenty of time left before the primary, that one stat should be giving Clinton supporters sleepless nights.

[Hortensis]

38. I'm not only not having sleepless nights now

because I like Bernie and his nomination would be a happening, but I never experience that shocked disbelief so many experience repeatedly on election nights.

I recommend at least examining information that contradicts one's wishes instead of just rejecting it outright.

BTW, if Bernie were our nominee in the general, the sleepless nights would then begin. That eyes-wide-open thing, although hope would of course rise again with each sunrise.

Keep your eyes on the prize. The next president will appoint at least 2, and as many as 4, Supreme Court judges.

[cannabis_flower]

27. However,

35 percent have neither a positive or a negative opinion of Sanders. Perhaps not paying attention yet and don't know who he is.

[CajunBlazer]

37. Pehaps they will never pay attention to Bernie

Not everyone is politically involved as the people on DU. Kind of sad, but they would tell us they are too busy living their lives.

Bernie hasn't done much to generate name generation except running for President.

[NurseJackie]

41. That suggests to me that they just don't care one way or the other ...

... or that they find him to be a bit pedestrian and lacking, neither here nor there, unexciting. If we're to believe that Bernie is having trouble reaching these people so that they CAN form an opinion about him (either positive or negative) then I think it's safe to say that he (or his campaign staff) isn't doing a very good job. If he's struggling so hard to get Democrats on board with his message during the primaries, then it's likely he'd have a much more difficult challenge in doing the same in a general election.

Of course, as a Hillary supporter, this doesn't bother me in the least, but even the respondents with "neither a positive or a negative opinion" help to explain (or at least highlight) the fact that Bernie is having trouble gaining traction beyond his hardcore supporters.

Or, maybe, as you suggest, they're just "not paying attention yet" ... and it's through their own negligence that they haven't formed an opinion. The question still remains, why is Bernie having such a hard time GETTING them to pay attention to him?

What will happen when those "no-opinion" voters DO finally develop an opinion? Obviously some of those newly-formed opinions will be positive, and some will be negative.

Is there any reason to believe that the "no-opinion-yet" voters will surge in Bernie's favor? Or will the newly formed opinions be split in similar proportions to what we're observing now?

Will the enthusiasm of his most dedicated supporters be enough? It remains to be seen, but I personally don't see it happening for him.

[MaggieD]

52. Well said

I will add that those numbers cited tend to leave me with the impression that he has been tuned out by a large percentage of Dems. His numbers have flatlined for months now. I think he's gotten all the support he is going to get.

[Iliyah]

58. I'm so reminded here that BS is the internet and social media sensation, therefore,

at least "majority" of people should know who he is.

[blackspade]

31. Yawn.

Another pre-race victory lap from the Clinton crowd.

[CajunBlazer]

50. And of course, we have never seen on this board....

.....Bernie supporters claiming that after Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire all of the Hillary supporters in the remaining states will immediately start supporting Bernie. And we should just disregard all of those "Bernie's Surging", posts etc.

The response to Bernie's chances of winning by his supporters on DU has been far more emotional than logical, but maybe that is the kind of people Bernie attracts.

[blackspade]

69. Ah, the old "emotional" vs "logical" canard.

[CajunBlazer]

74. I don't know how old it is - I'm new to the board - but it is obvious

......I'm a Southerner and to be honest I have really never been exposed to Democrats as far to the left as the typical Sanders supporter on DU. Most Southern Democrats (those that are still Democrats that is) that I know are liberal and believe in the same basic liberal tenants that most on this board share, but we are more pragmatic than the typical Bernie supporters on DU - I guess given that we live in some of the most conservative states in the country, we have to be.

Anyway, by definition I am looking at this DU posters with fresh eyes - the emotional verses logical thing sticks out like a sore thumb. I guess you could put another way - passionate verses pragmatic, or idealistic verses realistic. However it is stated, one would have to be blind to miss it.

[blackspade]

75. As a southerner, I find your characterization laughable.

But there I go being emotional again...

The emotional vs logical, passionate verses pragmatic, and idealistic verses realistic dichotomy is a recycle of the '08 election and is a standard 'go to' criticism of the 'left' by Clinton supporters.

Welcome to DU.

[CajunBlazer]

78. You obviously don't live in Alabama, or your friends are very different than mine

Wow, I'm new to all of this political dialog, and I certainly wasn't around here in '08. I wonder how I came to the same conclusion as other pragmatic Democrats without coaching.

By the way, there are 4 basic human personality types, and one is not better than the others, they are just different, that's all. We need all four types in most of our endeavors. They all bring something to the table. It's okay to be emotional, passionate and idealistic. But it is silly not admit that you are emotional, passionate and idealistic if that is what you are.

[raindaddy]

39. The party's been leaking membership ever since they moved away from their FDR populist ideals.......

to embrace third way economic conservatism..

What are they down to, 30% and declining? So Dem polls no longer represent as many people as one might think.. Has Hillary addressed the reason why so many people have left the party? Probably not because she's part of the problem... Step out of that cozy 30% and Hillary isn't seen as such a favorable candidate.

If Hillary is elected President and she continues down the same neoliberal party road how many more disenchanted Democrats will leave their party? We're already close to living under a two party system where neither party inspires people to vote and together they barely represent half the American people, if you believe voter registration...

The real elephant in the room is that the Democratic party is declining and the only way to reverse the decline is to get back to the traditional FDR Democratic populism represented by Bernie Sanders....

[yallerdawg]

57. I'm glad I don't live in your alternate universe.

Truman, Kennedy, the legacy of Johnson, Carter, Clinton after 12 years of conservatism, Obama?

I guess I missed the revisionist definition of Democrat.

Must have "perfect" in it now...

[raindaddy]

73. I'm not sure what universe you occupy, but in the real world.....

The current version of the Democratic party has supported job killing trade agreements, bank deregulation, protecting the astronomical markups of the big pharmaceutical corporations, and the consolidation of our media into the hands of a handful of ultra rich oligarchs.. They've also supported tax cuts for the rich, cuts to Social Security and appointed corporate and Wall Street hacks to key positions in their administrations have become common place.

If you really believe that the above represents traditional Democratic values then you're living in a world of moderate Republican and we're BOTH glad you don't occupy my universe...

[wildeyed]

79. The party has been leaking membership since

LBJ signed the Voting Rights Act and the Dixiecrats went over to the Republicans. Republicans are leaking members too. The two party system is played out. People way far out on the right have paralyzed the system with their paroxysms of infantile rage. Districts are gerrymandered to the point that we don't even need to have elections in most of them anymore, it is that certain who will win. The entire system is drowning under tsunamis of special interest money unleaded by the most craptastic Supreme Court since Dred Scott. I agree that the system is well and truly f'ed. I *wish* the cure was a simple as electing a single politician.

[raindaddy]

80. I agree it's going to take more than just a single politician...

Sanders understands that as well.. He's acting as a catalyst, educating the masses about how unfair and dysfunctional our economic system has become for the majority of Americans..

I overheard a conversation about the oligarchy in Starbucks the other day.. Change takes as long as it takes

You made some very good points wildeye.. Thanks!

[ibegurpard]

46. Her favorability ratings with Democrats have never been in dispute

It's with everyone else that they are a problem. You don't win elections when less than a third of the voting population views you favorably and you are well-known to everyone. Can she win the primary? Of course she can.

[SmittynMo]

47. It's a well known fact

that if you repeat a misleading fact, over and over, it eventually becomes the truth.

Ask Trump. He'll set your ass straight on this, once and for all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. You are accusing the seminal poster of being untruthful.

It's a well known fact

that if you repeat a misleading fact, over and over, it eventually becomes the truth.

Ask Trump. He'll set your ass straight on this, once and for all

If you have proof that she is being untruthful it is incumbent upon you to adduce the evidence and if you don't have the evidence it is incumbent upon you to withdraw the calumny.

My hunch is you do neither.

[SmittynMo]

59. I never accused anyone

of being untruthful.

My incumbent adduce calumny stands as is.

[hrmjustin]

51. Good! That ought to piss of the right people.

[ibegurpard]

54. you mean the majority of the voting public?

Who view her unfavorably? Sorry but a majority of less than a third of the voting population ain't going to cut it.

[hrmjustin]

56. Yet she leads all her opponents. Good luck with your candidate.

[ffr]

55. I don't have an unfavorable opinion towards either

They should have polled me or anyone in my family. We love both of these candidates. They're great people who would do well as president.

[Iliyah]

61. Thank you so much for your positive response!

[fbc]

62. How are her overall (both parties) favorability ratings in the battleground states?

As far as I have seen, they are still horrible.

The battleground states, or "swing" states, are the states the democratic nominee needs to win in order to win the general election.

[ibegurpard]

64. There are more than 2 parties

There are unaffilateds...which make up the majority of the voting population. Her favorability is underwater with them.

[ismnotwasm]

67. Do they send delagates?

[ibegurpard]

70. apparently you are making the common mistake

Of many Hillary supporters that her popularity with some Democrats extends to the population at large. Her winning the Democratic primary is not relevant to her underwater favorables with everyone else.

[ismnotwasm]

71. What?

[ibegurpard]

72. I wasn't clear?

A percentage of the Democrats are the only people who like her. That will only help her in the primary and not the general.

[ismnotwasm]

66. Democrats do like her

Third party voters like Libertarians don't and keyboard warrior disaffected Democrats don't. A few pundits. Some "like" her (that word again) but embrace Sanders as a change agent.

Her lack of "likability"--was a key to the campaign of Sanders, he didn't exploit it much, but I get the feeling he counted on it.

That's before she got busy. She is constantly campaigning, reaching out, talking, listening in venues large and small. Which is why her campaign is doing so well.

What hurts her is political ignorance-- over simplification of complex issues and conspiracy theory politics--of the left and RW lies.

She still has a lot of work to do, but those who "won't" vote for her are very steadfast in their belief systems , and not worth the trouble of wooing at this point.

[moobu2]

81. GOooooo Hillary!!!!!!!!!