2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLatest HuffPost/Pollster graphic shows things are stabilizing with Hillary up by 25 points.
I suspect this will probably continue at this level until Iowa unless something dramatic happens in the next few weeks. Likely Dem voters have probably already made up their minds especially in the early states like Iowa, NH and SC. Bernie will need some sort of major miracle to change this. I just don't see it happening.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Go Hill!
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Must be some Bernster fantasy clickie poll.
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...shows Bernie within single digits of Clinton in Iowa.
I mean...I can barely contain my enthusiasm.
These national polls mean zilch.
They meant nothing in 2008. Hillary was destroying Obama in all national polls. Didn't mean a thing.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)The most recent poll from two weeks ago had Hillary up by 9 points. I think the Hillary team was pleased with that. It will be interesting to see the results from the next Iowa polls. I suspect probably similar to those latest polls as nothing really significant has happened since and It appears things are stabilizing.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)As you know better than most, polling does not capture the enthusiasm which is so critical in caucuses like Iowa's contest, and so if Sanders is close in late January, I'll feel good about his chances on February 1st.
George II
(67,782 posts)Here are all the Iowa polls going back to September as gathered by RealClearPolitics. Their average shows Clinton up double-digits (11%) and you can see the CBS/Yougov polls are way off from other polls. (sorry for the formatting)
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/22 -- -- 52.0 41.0 4.0 Clinton +11.0
Quinnipiac 11/16 - 11/22 543 LV 4.2 51 42 4 Clinton +9
CBS News/YouGov 11/15 - 11/19 602 LV 7.6 50 44 5 Clinton +6
CNN/ORC 10/29 - 11/4 498 LV 4.5 55 37 3 Clinton +18
PPP (D) 10/30 - 11/1 615 LV 3.9 57 25 7 Clinton +32
Gravis Marketing 10/29 - 10/29 273 RV 6.0 57 25 3 Clinton +32
KBUR 10/29 - 10/31 681 LV 3.8 46 32 5 Clinton +14
Monmouth 10/22 - 10/25 400 LV 4.9 65 24 5 Clinton +41
Loras College 10/19 - 10/22 500 LV 4.4 62 24 3 Clinton +38
CBS/YouGov 10/15 - 10/22 554 LV 6.9 46 43 3 Clinton +3
DMR/Bloomberg 10/16 - 10/19 402 LV 4.9 48 41 2 Clinton +7
Quinnipiac 10/14 - 10/20 592 LV 4.0 51 40 4 Clinton +11
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/23 - 9/30 348 RV 5.3 33 28 3 Clinton +5
Gravis Marketing 9/25 - 9/27 328 RV 5.4 40 31 2 Clinton +9
PPP (D) 9/18 - 9/20 488 RV 4.4 43 22 3 Clinton +21
CBS News/YouGov 9/3 - 9/10 646 LV 6.6 33 43 5 Sanders +10
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)The only polls that might matter are the state polls in early primary states right now.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)___________
The only question now barring a health catastrophe for Hillary Clinton is when her nomination becomes a metaphysical certainty. This is going to be a battle in the Fall so the sooner the better.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)With such a huge lead nationally its likely Hillary is also leading in most states as well.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)57 days to go till Iowa. I like her chances.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I just dont see anything like that happening in the next few weeks. And the comparisons to 2008 by some Bernie supporters are absurd. Obama was a rising star with huge potential across all voting blocks. Bernie support is much narrower with less room to expand. Plus the fact Hillary is a much stronger smarter more experienced candidate this time. I agree, I like her chances.
FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)For the past 2 months. I'd say it's pretty much over as far as people making up their minds at least in the early states and Super Tuesday.
people have heard Bernie and his message and majority of Democrats are still for Hillary.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)This thing will be over before the end of March. Hillary supporters can move forward, and the hardcore Hillary-haters can go to wherever it is that haters go. (I get the feeling that they won't be permitted to continue on here.)
DCBob
(24,689 posts)99Forever
(14,524 posts)... for the twenty-fifth time....
Bwahahahahahahahahahhaha.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)99Forever
(14,524 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Waste of board space.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Go Hillary!
Persondem
(1,936 posts)have Clinton at ~59%. Only the Ipsos poll is showing otherwise. Of course that is the poll the Sanders people cling to and shout "Bernie is surging". If Bernie really surged every time his supporters shouted it, he'd have 110% of the vote by now.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)oasis
(49,389 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Can't wait!