2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCompilation of Democratic Polls as of TODAY from Huffington Pollster:
These include the states listed on HP's "2016 Races" page. Some still have large "undecided" segments, and many states have not had polls conducted to the extent they can be reported on HP.
National: Clinton 57, Sanders 32 Clinton +25
Iowa: Clinton 54, Sanders 36 Clinton +18
New Hampshire: Clinton 44, Sanders 43 Clinton +1
South Carolina: Clinton 73, Sanders 22 Clinton +51
Texas: Clinton 61, Sanders 10 Clinton +51
Florida: Clinton 57, Sanders 22 Clinton +35
North Carolina: Clinton 58, Sanders 30 Clinton +28
Ohio: Clinton 40, Sanders 19 Clinton +21
Pennsylvania: Clinton 36, Sanders 22 Clinton +14
California: Clinton 48, Sanders 33 Clinton +15
New Jersey: Clinton 63, Sanders 23 Clinton +40
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)mcar
(42,372 posts)ismnotwasm
(41,999 posts)riversedge
(70,285 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Cha
(297,548 posts)L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)mwrguy
(3,245 posts)OK not really.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)8 years ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a 20+ point lead in the national polls over Barack Obama until the first states started voting. Once Obama won in Iowa (Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, delegates 16:14:15), everything started to change. Its why Nate Silver made a post on Kos where he declared National Polls Dont Matter. Clinton then won in New Hampshire, stalling the comeback, then they split Nevada and South Carolina before Obama continued his climb. He didnt overtake Clinton until the middle of February, 6 weeks after he won the Iowa Caucuses. Here is a handy interactive poll from Real Clear Politics to illustrate.
In October 2007, Clinton had an insurmountable 24 point lead over Barack Obama with African Americans in South Carolina. After Obama took Iowa, those poll results reversed and he gained a 59-31% advantage with the AA community, changing the fortunes of that state and setting the stage for taking other minority heavy Southern states.
Now, there is no doubt that Clinton is currently well ahead with African Americans in the South at this point, and it will be quite a challenge for Bernie Sanders to come back and get a majority vote with these constituents, inroads are already being made. In the latest ABC Poll, Bernies support among People of Color doubled from 15% in October to 31% in November, a gain of 16 points. Note Bernie also gained with every group in that poll except people over 50.
George II
(67,782 posts)...and in December 2007 Clinton was actually only 17 points ahead (still high) and she was dropping fast while Obama was "skyrocketing".
The trends are completely opposite this year - Sanders' "surge" has stalled and he's been relatively flat for almost two months while Clinton has doubled her lead since October 1:
Oct 1 Clinton 40.8, Sanders 26.8 (+14.0)
Dec 6 Clinton 58.3, Sanders 31.5 (+26.8)
Sanders has gone up a mere 4.7% while Clinton has gone up 17.5%. In 2007 the trends were completely opposite.
And the big difference, polls notwithstanding, is that Clinton was running against a younger charismatic opponent who oozed (and still does) personality and hope.
Absolutely nothing like 2007.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)BTW, when you cite an other person's work you need to put quotation marks around it:
Screen_Shot_2015-12-06_at_1.24.50_AM.png
2007-2008 National Polling: Clinton vs. Obama
8 years ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a 20+ point lead in the national polls over Barack Obama until the first states started voting. Once Obama won in Iowa (Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, delegates 16:14:15), everything started to change. Its why Nate Silver made a post on Kos where he declared National Polls Dont Matter. Clinton then won in New Hampshire, stalling the comeback, then they split Nevada and South Carolina before Obama continued his climb. He didnt overtake Clinton until the middle of February, 6 weeks after he won the Iowa Caucuses. Here is a handy interactive poll from Real Clear Politics to illustrate.
In October 2007, Clinton had an insurmountable 24 point lead over Barack Obama with African Americans in South Carolina. After Obama took Iowa, those poll results reversed and he gained a 59-31% advantage with the AA community, changing the fortunes of that state and setting the stage for taking other minority heavy Southern states.
Now, there is no doubt that Clinton is currently well ahead with African Americans in the South at this point, and it will be quite a challenge for Bernie Sanders to come back and get a majority vote with these constituents, inroads are already being made. In the latest ABC Poll, Bernies support among People of Color doubled from 15% in October to 31% in November, a gain of 16 points. Note Bernie also gained with every group in that poll except people over 50.
How Bernie Sanders Will BERN Through Clinton's Southern Firewall
Dec 06, 2015 6:00am PST by novenator
https://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/6/1457352/-How-Bernie-Sanders-Will-BERN-Through-Clinton-s-Southern-Firewall
Any way, Dr. Who nailed it:
Black people arent primed for Bernie. They arent waiting for him. Most people of color dont know anything about him. Bernie supporters cant see that in order to compare to Obama, Bernie needs to be operating in reverse. He needs to win SC, NV, etc. before hell be taken seriously as a candidate. If he had focused on those states instead of IA and NH if he was showing strong numbers among the AA communities, then you bet the media would be taking notice and Hillary would be worried.
Bernie supporters cant possibly believe that they can compare the polling numbers for the first serious African American presidential candidate to Bernies. It makes no sense. No logical sense.
And okay if Obama was down by 24 with AA at this time. How low is Bernie right now? LOL...
DoctorWho Dec 06 · 07:32:48 AM
https://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/6/1457352/-How-Bernie-Sanders-Will-BERN-Through-Clinton-s-Southern-Firewall
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It won't happen.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Barack Obama was probably the most inspiring charismatic candidate to run for President in 5 decades and his campaign was probably most brilliant and effective in history.
Bernie does not compare in any way shape or form.