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George II

(67,782 posts)
Sun Dec 6, 2015, 04:57 PM Dec 2015

Compilation of Democratic Polls as of TODAY from Huffington Pollster:

These include the states listed on HP's "2016 Races" page. Some still have large "undecided" segments, and many states have not had polls conducted to the extent they can be reported on HP.

National: Clinton 57, Sanders 32 Clinton +25

Iowa: Clinton 54, Sanders 36 Clinton +18
New Hampshire: Clinton 44, Sanders 43 Clinton +1
South Carolina: Clinton 73, Sanders 22 Clinton +51
Texas: Clinton 61, Sanders 10 Clinton +51
Florida: Clinton 57, Sanders 22 Clinton +35
North Carolina: Clinton 58, Sanders 30 Clinton +28
Ohio: Clinton 40, Sanders 19 Clinton +21
Pennsylvania: Clinton 36, Sanders 22 Clinton +14
California: Clinton 48, Sanders 33 Clinton +15
New Jersey: Clinton 63, Sanders 23 Clinton +40





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Compilation of Democratic Polls as of TODAY from Huffington Pollster: (Original Post) George II Dec 2015 OP
Looks very positive. Thanks for the share. nm Alfresco Dec 2015 #1
Looking good. okasha Dec 2015 #2
Nice to see all this in one place mcar Dec 2015 #3
K&R ismnotwasm Dec 2015 #4
Thanks for you work. Much appreciated. riversedge Dec 2015 #5
Still working hard and feeling good about the poll numbers. Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #6
She's dong great! MaggieD Dec 2015 #7
Good!!! Beacool Dec 2015 #8
50 state strategy. K and R! JaneyVee Dec 2015 #9
Excellent George.. thank you for the round up, so far! Cha Dec 2015 #10
I support these candidates +100! L. Coyote Dec 2015 #11
New Hampshire is the key to the entire election! mwrguy Dec 2015 #12
k&r Starry Messenger Dec 2015 #13
2007 all over again SmittynMo Dec 2015 #14
And now a touch of reality - this is December, not October.... George II Dec 2015 #16
I liked Mr. Who's response DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2015 #17
If team Sanders is counting on history repeating itself he is big trouble. DCBob Dec 2015 #18
Who knows, really. I think it's just as likely to happen. reformist2 Dec 2015 #19
Its very unlikely to happen. DCBob Dec 2015 #20
Kick. Agschmid Dec 2015 #15
Kick & highly recommended! William769 Dec 2015 #21
Looks like a landslide in the making! DCBob Dec 2015 #22

SmittynMo

(3,544 posts)
14. 2007 all over again
Sun Dec 6, 2015, 08:20 PM
Dec 2015

8 years ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a 20+ point lead in the national polls over Barack Obama until the first states started voting. Once Obama won in Iowa (Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, delegates 16:14:15), everything started to change. It’s why Nate Silver made a post on Kos where he declared National Polls Don’t Matter. Clinton then won in New Hampshire, stalling the comeback, then they split Nevada and South Carolina before Obama continued his climb. He didn’t overtake Clinton until the middle of February, 6 weeks after he won the Iowa Caucuses. Here is a handy interactive poll from Real Clear Politics to illustrate.

In October 2007, Clinton had an “insurmountable” 24 point lead over Barack Obama with African Americans in South Carolina. After Obama took Iowa, those poll results reversed and he gained a 59-31% advantage with the AA community, changing the fortunes of that state and setting the stage for taking other minority heavy Southern states.

Now, there is no doubt that Clinton is currently well ahead with African Americans in the South at this point, and it will be quite a challenge for Bernie Sanders to come back and get a majority vote with these constituents, inroads are already being made. In the latest ABC Poll, Bernie’s support among People of Color doubled from 15% in October to 31% in November, a gain of 16 points. Note Bernie also gained with every group in that poll except people over 50.

George II

(67,782 posts)
16. And now a touch of reality - this is December, not October....
Sun Dec 6, 2015, 08:55 PM
Dec 2015

...and in December 2007 Clinton was actually only 17 points ahead (still high) and she was dropping fast while Obama was "skyrocketing".

The trends are completely opposite this year - Sanders' "surge" has stalled and he's been relatively flat for almost two months while Clinton has doubled her lead since October 1:

Oct 1 Clinton 40.8, Sanders 26.8 (+14.0)
Dec 6 Clinton 58.3, Sanders 31.5 (+26.8)

Sanders has gone up a mere 4.7% while Clinton has gone up 17.5%. In 2007 the trends were completely opposite.

And the big difference, polls notwithstanding, is that Clinton was running against a younger charismatic opponent who oozed (and still does) personality and hope.

Absolutely nothing like 2007.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
17. I liked Mr. Who's response
Sun Dec 6, 2015, 08:57 PM
Dec 2015

BTW, when you cite an other person's work you need to put quotation marks around it:


Bernie Sanders is fairly well positioned to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, so much of Clinton’s hopes to bury him early rests on the southern-heavy Super Tuesday states. The strategy did not work in 2008 against Obama, and Bernie has potential to replicate that comeback in 2016.

Screen_Shot_2015-12-06_at_1.24.50_AM.png
2007-2008 National Polling: Clinton vs. Obama
8 years ago, Hillary Clinton maintained a 20+ point lead in the national polls over Barack Obama until the first states started voting. Once Obama won in Iowa (Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29%, delegates 16:14:15), everything started to change. It’s why Nate Silver made a post on Kos where he declared National Polls Don’t Matter. Clinton then won in New Hampshire, stalling the comeback, then they split Nevada and South Carolina before Obama continued his climb. He didn’t overtake Clinton until the middle of February, 6 weeks after he won the Iowa Caucuses. Here is a handy interactive poll from Real Clear Politics to illustrate.

In October 2007, Clinton had an “insurmountable” 24 point lead over Barack Obama with African Americans in South Carolina. After Obama took Iowa, those poll results reversed and he gained a 59-31% advantage with the AA community, changing the fortunes of that state and setting the stage for taking other minority heavy Southern states.

Now, there is no doubt that Clinton is currently well ahead with African Americans in the South at this point, and it will be quite a challenge for Bernie Sanders to come back and get a majority vote with these constituents, inroads are already being made. In the latest ABC Poll, Bernie’s support among People of Color doubled from 15% in October to 31% in November, a gain of 16 points. Note Bernie also gained with every group in that poll except people over 50.


How Bernie Sanders Will BERN Through Clinton's Southern Firewall
Dec 06, 2015 6:00am PST by novenator


https://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/6/1457352/-How-Bernie-Sanders-Will-BERN-Through-Clinton-s-Southern-Firewall



Any way, Dr. Who nailed it:



What really keeps me laughing is the comparison to Obama. That there are all these black folks who are just waiting for Bernie to win Iowa before they can take his candidacy seriously, and THEN they’ll vote for him. Bernie supporters just don’t get it. They don’t get that we black folks were primed for Obama — we were WAITING to vote for him. We just wanted to be sure he could win.
Black people aren’t primed for Bernie. They aren’t waiting for him. Most people of color don’t know anything about him. Bernie supporters can’t see that in order to compare to Obama, Bernie needs to be operating in reverse. He needs to win SC, NV, etc. before he’ll be taken seriously as a candidate. If he had focused on those states instead of IA and NH — if he was showing strong numbers among the AA communities, then you bet the media would be taking notice and Hillary would be worried.

Bernie supporters can’t possibly believe that they can compare the polling numbers for the first serious African American presidential candidate to Bernies. It makes no sense. No logical sense.

And okay if Obama was down by 24 with AA at this time. How low is Bernie right now? LOL...

DoctorWho Dec 06 · 07:32:48 AM

https://m.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/6/1457352/-How-Bernie-Sanders-Will-BERN-Through-Clinton-s-Southern-Firewall



DCBob

(24,689 posts)
20. Its very unlikely to happen.
Sun Dec 6, 2015, 09:54 PM
Dec 2015

Barack Obama was probably the most inspiring charismatic candidate to run for President in 5 decades and his campaign was probably most brilliant and effective in history.

Bernie does not compare in any way shape or form.

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