Vote for Bernie. After all, you don't want a Republican naming Supreme Court Justices, do you?

[Scuba]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307

American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans:

47 - 41 percent over Trump, compared to 46 - 43 percent November 4;
Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio's 44 percent, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Rubio lead last month;
Clinton tops Cruz 47 - 42 percent, compared to Cruz at 46 percent to Clinton's 43 percent last month;
Clinton at 46 percent to Carson's 43 percent compared to Carson's 50 - 40 percent lead last month.


Sanders does just as well, or even better, against top Republicans:
Topping Trump 49 - 41 percent;
Getting 44 percent to Rubio's 43 percent;
Beating Cruz 49 - 39 percent;
Leading Carson 47 - 41 percent.

Clinton has a negative 44 - 51 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are:

Negative 35 - 57 percent for Trump;
40 - 33 percent for Carson;
44 - 31 percent for Sanders;
37 - 28 percent for Rubio;
33 - 33 percent for Cruz.

Unless you want President Trump naming multiple Supreme Court Justices you'd better vote for Bernie in the primary.

[pnwmom]

1. The favorability rating is due to the fact that she is far more well known and her negatives

are, too.

If Bernie becomes the nominee the Rethugs will find plenty of mud to throw at him, too.

What matters is who people say they will vote for -- and Hillary's leading everyone.

[Ed Suspicious]

2. I'm glad you aren't working on my campaign with analysis like that.

[Bubzer]

27. +1

[thesquanderer]

38. Hillary not necessarily leading everyone

Based on these numbers, at first glance, it looks like either Dem beats any of the Repubs, but once you take the margin of error into account, Clinton is statistically tied against Cruz and Carson, whereas Sanders actually leads against them.

Though since we elect a President via the electroral college and not by popular vote, these figures are inconclusive... you can win the popular vote and still lose the election (ask President Gore), so until we see state-by-state analysis, we don't really know who would win in these matchups.

Still, Bernie is polling as well or better than Hillary in all these potential November matchups. As I've said before, for numerous reasons, I would expect Bernie to do better than Hillary in November. Unfortunately, he's not likely to make it that far. Fortunately, Hillary will probably still do well enough to win (albeit perhaps with less coattails).

As for the point about the mudslinging to come, I would turn that around and suggest that it is virtually impossible for the Republicans to do to Sanders in a matter of months as much damage as they have done to Clinton in 20+ years. The dislike many non-Dems have for HRC is visceral, deep-seated and long-lasting in a way that goes beyond what I think could be created in a single brief campaign.

But sure, both favorable AND unfavorable numbers should increase for Sanders as he becomes more well known. Obviously, it is easier to persuade someone who has no firm opinion yet than it is to change the mind of someone who already has an opinion. With that in mind, look at the figures again:

Clinton 44 favorable, 55 unfavorable... those people are unlikely to shift substantially... leaving only 5% who are easily open to going one way or the other. (55 unfavorable doesn't mean that none of those will vote for her, of course... you could look at HRC unfavorably and still like her more than you like Trump or whoever. But... it doesn't help.)

Sanders has 44 favorable (already as much as HRC), and 31 unfavorable... again, I'd say those people will be hard to shift much... but that still leaves 25% who are still easily open to going either way, the question is how they will split. Realistically, Sanders would end up with noticeably more Favorables than Clinton, regardless of whether the undecideds break 50/50 or 2-to-1 or even 3-to-1 in whichever direction.

And really, IF you care about favorability, would you rather have someone who already has high unfavorables, or someone who doesn't, but you worry might have them in the future? Especially in light of the numbers that show it actually would be awfully unlikely for his unfavorables to get that high (based on what I said in the previous three paragaraphs)?

[Scuba]

62. Very nice addition to the thread. Thanks.

[pangaia]

39. Of course the fact that she is far more well known

wouldn't have anything to do with why her polling is even as high as it is,...not would it?

[Betty Karlson]

42. So her name recognition is a good thing, because it makes Sanders unelectable in the primaries.

But if his favorability suddenly works in his favour, Clinton's name recognition is suddenly a bad thing?

This constant back and forth of the same argument excusing Clinton over and over again: could you guys please stop flip-flopping more than your preferred candidate?

[CoffeeCat]

44. Yes, the more people know her...

...the greater the dislike.

Ummm...that's nothing to celebrate.

[brooklynite]

60. Polling intent doesn't fully reflect voter turnout

Clinton will have the resources and capability of running a national campaign against a well-funded Republican.

If Sanders could show some strength to be competitive in more than one State, you might have a better argument.

[99Forever]

3. Exactly. n/t

[Gamecock Lefty]

4. Interesting Thread but a Non-Issue.

Bernie is not going to get out of the primary in first place so this thread means nothing.

I'd rather have Hillary as our DEM nominee and win the general election by ONE POINT than have Bernie as the nominee and win the general by TWO POINTS!

[daleanime]

8. No need....

for coattails?

[Fuddnik]

13. Why did you put "Lefty" in your name?

Doesn't make sense that you'd prefer a conservative to a real lefty.

[d_legendary1]

59. Well Gamecock does come first

and based on that response there's a reason why its first.

[Fawke Em]

68. "Gamecock" is the mascot for the University of South Carolina.

And, from my experience in living there just after college, being "left" in South Carolina basically means you're still to the right of most Democrats - even the Third Way kind.



(Hey - I'm a Tennessean. My state is only a bit less red than SC, but I call myself a liberal. I'm proud of it, too)

[JimDandy]

51. Why?

What an odd thing to say.

[NCTraveler]

5. Have to get through the primary first.

Pretty clear it's going to be Sanders or Clinton. I'm pretty confident in Clinton.

[Android3.14]

9. That's exactly what Scuba is talking about

Lots of people have confidence Clinton can win the primary. Whoopity-doo. The problem, beyond the issues of the baggage she brings, corporate influence and lack of enthusiasm from the Democratic base, is that she doesn't match up so well in the general, and Bernie looks better in the general.

Independents, many of the Democratic base and nearly all of the GOP dislike her with a vigor. Bernie, already with good chances in the general election, will gain more from Independents, thus creating a landslide for Democrats at all levels in the election. With Clinton,we might hang on to the White House, barely. And we might have the Trumpster giving his fascist high-five from the Oval office.

The smart move for the party is to back Sanders in the primary.

[NCTraveler]

12. I completely disagree with you.

But then again I think winning the primary is a little more than a "Whoopity-do." That's probably a part of it. Lol.

[Android3.14]

29. I recognize the disagreement, but you are making a strategic mistake

Your vote for Clinton in the primary will either maintain this pathetic status quo if she wins the general or your vote will increase the chances of overt fascism if the GOP takes the White House.

The current polling data supports this logic. If you disagree with my argument for an actual reason, then let's discuss that. Otherwise, your support for Clinton in the primary has nothing to do with a goal for a better country and everything to do with satisfying some other need.

[NCTraveler]

32. "The current polling data supports this logic."

No, it doesn't. When your reasons include falsehoods, there can't be discussion.

[Android3.14]

56. What falsehood?

Why do Clinton supporters call something a falsehood and then decline to back it up?

It is a fact that polling data shows Sanders performing as well or better than Clinton in the general election.

Even if you cannot justify the reasons for your bad decisions, there's no need to call someone a liar.

[NewJeffCT]

16. Most of the polls I've seen

Have Clinton with much higher popularity ratings among Democrats than Sanders. I'm not a supporter of anybody in the primaries, but just try to look at the numbers that are available.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/poll-democrats-2016-hillary-clinton-216422

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/13/poll-hillary-clintons-image-among-democrats-much-stronger-than-bernie-sanderss/

[Android3.14]

23. You are only seeing two inches in front of your face

Bernie will fare better in the general when Democrats make up barely 30% of the electorate and Independents are the plurality. Her likeability numbers with independent voters are not going to budge, whereas Bernie's will only improve.

The strategic vote is for Bernie in the primary. If Clinton wins the primary, then she wins the primary and you can vote for her in the general and (if she wins) we have what have now - gridlock and a House and Senate that cannot accomplish anything. If Bernie wins the primary, we have a chance at real positive change.

Didn't you ever play chess?

[NewJeffCT]

43. yes

and, I can see Hillary winning a lot of independents, especially women. She's also been swift boated for 24 years now and still has extremely high popularity among Democrats.

Will Bernie be able to hold up against the billions of 3rd Party money the Republicans will dump into the race when he's only gotten a small amount of media scrutiny so far? Heck, he hasn't even gotten the coverage he's deserved outside of MSNBC, and even that's not been great. Sure, he can respond vigorously to Republican attack ads, but if nobody airs his responses, will it count? In 2004, John Kerry responded vigorously to the Swift Boating he received, but it never got air time and he crashed in the polls and never fully recovered. In 1988, Mike Dukakis never recovered from the Willie Horton ad, even though he ran a counter-ad showing where Bush had had a similar incident happen on his watch.

[jeff47]

46. Democrats are 30% of the electorate.

You do not win with 30% of the vote.

In 2004, John Kerry responded vigorously to the Swift Boating he received

[NewJeffCT]

49. again

Kerry responded vigorously - it just got no air time.

[jeff47]

50. No, Kerry started with "not dignifying with a response"

Then fairly weak responses, then slightly stronger responses, and by the time he got to vigorous responses it had become "true" (or perhaps "truthy&quot .

[Android3.14]

55. Polling data for the GE does not support "Hillary winning a lot of independents"

It's okay. The rest of your comment is essentially a "it's her turn" and we should vote for her out of some strange sense of sympathy or guilt. I'm sorry, but she has made disastrous votes, is too melded to corporate interests and changes her mind based on anything but conviction. Sanders much more closely represents pragmatic, humane and ethical values.

As far as Bernie holding up under GOP scrutiny, the evidence seems to show that he can, and then some.

When I was a school teacher there were kids that, despite being bright, were unable to to overcome personal bias. My suspicion is that others are seeing the wisdom in a Sanders primary vote, and I am more hopeful for this country if Sanders is our nominee.

[Divernan]

6. & Bernie won't have any corp. quid pro quos influencing his choices.

[Hepburn]

20. Amen. n/t

[Bubzer]

31. Where hillary has too many to count.

[fasttense]

7. They said all the same things about having a black man as president

They all said it could NOT happen and they were wrong.

Bernie is our only hope against sinking deeper into facism or corporatism.

[Hepburn]

28. The only chance a gawd-awful Hillary nomination will have of winning is if...

...tRump does not take the GOP nom and he runs 3rd party. Other than that, Hillary again becomes the true loser that she has always been. Worst of all, because far too many of the established Dem Party pushed DINO HRC into the GE, the nation loses...and the latter is true if she wins the POTUS or one of the current Repukes running takes POTUS.

She is not one of us...what does it take to realize she is just as symbolic of the 1% as are her pals on Wall Steet?

JMHO

[Ed Suspicious]

30. Yall work so hard to reassure yourselves "of course" it's comical.

[Hepburn]

36. Seems like 2008 all over again...

...their coronation will be side-lined.

Hillary is a loser and she will again lose the nomination.

JMHO

[Thor_MN]

11. You do understand that the primary elections are different than the general elections?

I'd bet that you do, which would make your take away seem rather dishonest...

The Democratic Candidate, at this point, looks to be a lock in a fair general election. Which makes your statement... contrived? at best?

[Scuba]

63. Huh? What?

[Thor_MN]

66. The numbers you showed indicate that the Democratic Candidate, regardless of which one,

is clearly ahead at this point in the GENERAL election.

However you turned into a must-vote-for in the PRIMARY election is sketchy at best.

[Scuba]

72. Ah, but Bernie is further ahead and doesn't have the huge negatives. Safer to vote for Bernie.

[Thor_MN]

74. Mmm, you said that if we don't vote for Sanders in the Primary, the Republican will win the General.

Which is hardly supported by the poll numbers you were cited. Now you are inching back and saying "safer".

[Progressive dog]

14. I want a Democrat to name supreme court justices

which means Hillary is my choice in the primary.

[Robbins]

34. funny

I would think a real Dem would be pro labor,support health care for all.be in model of FDR against wall street.Not praise Kissinger
or hand out with bushes.

Bernie Is in model of what Dems should be.Clinton Is DINO.

[Progressive dog]

75. I would think a real Democrat

might support other Democrats. Party members determine what a Democrat is. Kind of like in a Democracy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I love the blatant cherry picking of polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

[MaggieD]

17. He wouldn't do well in a GE against any rethug

Between his FP weakness and non-stop ads about him being an avowed socialist he would be crushed.

[Bluenorthwest]

18. I'm a Democrat, I say all three of our candidates would soundly defeat any Republican.

This routine of constantly attacking the candidates is boring and cynical.

[MaggieD]

21. I wish I could agree

But I think Bernie would be defeated handily. I'm not one of those that thinks the more you know about Bernie the more you like him. In fact I think it's just the opposite.

[Bluenorthwest]

33. I am a Democrat, I think all of our candidates are great, superior to the Republicans, you do not.

You and I are very different. You are like the anti-Hillary folks, you are an anti-Bernie poster. That's not how I am. I find that whole method to be toxic, harmful and in my location utterly ineffective. If you went canvassing for Hillary here with the material you use on DU, you would create a new Bernie voter at every door.

[redstateblues]

54. Honeymoon in Moscow

[Hepburn]

19. Bernie is one of us; Hillary is not. n/t

[Nitram]

22. Dude, looks like you need better screens on your windows.

There are bugs crawling all over your post!

[Hepburn]

25. Thanks for the flyover.

[brooklynite]

61. Am I one of Us? Or is us only you?

[Dragonfli]

67. No, you are a very well off person that can't even begin to identify with people of lesser means

Much like Hillary Clinton.

[brooklynite]

69. How about Sherrod Brown? John Lewis? Alan Grayson? Russ Feingold?

Cowards? Sellouts? "Thoughtless"?

[Dragonfli]

70. Evading a direct answer with a question? Indicative of your silver spoon class.

Tell me, how are your stock options doing? Your second high end car? Your vacation home(s). When was the last time you had to feel the pain of the osteoarthritis that a lifetime of hard work simply to survive (barely) left you stumbling to the bathroom?

You have no idea what life is like for the un-entitled, nor does your candidate, and that is why neither of you give a rats ass about anything other than your financial peers and their returns on investments.

I do not envy you, I pity you, I at least understand and am capable of empathy regarding the bulk of my brothers and sisters that are suffering in this country while you sample your wine and cheese at your entitled events, unfeeling, uncaring, simply viewing this all as a sport that if won by a peer of yours will better your fortunes at the expense of the rest of us.

[brooklynite]

73. I love stereotypes in the morning...

All I told you was that I'm a 1%er, so the champagne (Dom of course!) must flow freely...

If it makes you feel better, my wife and I have no stock options (btw, I work for the Government), we drive a 10-year old VW GTI and we have no vacation home. And no, I don't work on my feet, but how many other people here who don't either are you prepared to insult?

And my comment still stands-how many of those insults will you be throwing at Elizabeth Warren ("Hilary is terrific&quot ? Is Alan Grayson a sellout? Is Sherrod Brown a coward afraid of an enemies list?

However better you think I'll be under Hillary Clinton, I'd likely do far better under Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz. But I'd never want to inflict that on more vulnerable voters. That's why I'm working like hell to elect a mainstream Democrat who can actually get elected. I've said this before, and I'll say it again: in 2008 I switched from Clinton to Obama (probably not up to your standards either) when I became convinced he was viable. Give me hard data that Sanders can be competitive nationwide (there aren't enough EVs in New Hampshire) and I'll switch.

[SmittynMo]

24. Take a break, would ya?

From all these posts in here, it seems appropriate that a lot of you need to take a road trip to Colorado. Most of us have made up our minds on who we're going to vote for. No one is going to change their mind, right? So why get so hateful against the other candidate?
We're suppose to be democrats, all in this together, to hopefully elect the next president. Put all your efforts into that.

I have an idea. Instead of slamming your contender, try posting good shit about your candidate. The person with the most good shit, wins.

Yeah, that's the ticket

[Le Taz Hot]

41. #1 The is General Discussion - Primaries

if you don't want to read contentious posts I'm sure the Cooking & Baking Group will welcome you with open arms but you have to swear fealty to all things Trader Joe's first.
#2 We are NOT all Democrats on DU so I wouldn't be counting on the Kum Ba Ya thing either here on DU or the rest of the country if HRH, DWS and Wall Street do manage to wrangle the nomination for Hillary.

[frylock]

57. What part of the OP was hateful?

[Scuba]

64. Not being sufficiently swooned by Hillary.

[frylock]

65. Ah, thanks.

I see it now.

[Maedhros]

77. You seem deeply confused.

Here is an example of a real hateful OP:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251893505

Maybe you should head over there and give cosmicone your little lecture?

[longship]

26. So one poll does it?

First, I will very likely vote for Bernie in the MI primary. That said, this argument is utter rubbish. I think that a Hillary Clinton vote likewise would be a vote against Trump.

In other words, these polls this far out are basically useless, used mostly for spin rather than information. And DU needs a whole lot more of the latter and a whole lot less of the former these days.

GD.P seems to be all about spin, which any intelligent human knows is absolute bollocks.

Love you, Scuba. However, I cannot agree with you here, for the reasons I have stated.

My best to you.

[upaloopa]

35. He will never get to the general.

Funny how polls in Bernie's favor are not bought and paid for isn't it?

[Le Taz Hot]

37. See? It's that negative 44-51%

that says it all. People HATE her. HATE. HER. No candidate has ever won anything with a 44-51% DISAPPROVAL rating. Ever. I know it will be a nanosecond before her supporters start posting POLLS!!11!1! but look at who they're sampling. It DOES make a difference. I, personally, have re-registered people to vote during this election cycle that were some other party and re-registered to Decline to State (in order to vote for Bernie) because they REFUSE to join the Democratic Party. As in, they have real contempt for it and they have contempt for HRH. These are the people who are not being polled and it's why the polling of "likely Democratic voters" isn't telling the real story.

[upaloopa]

40. No they don't hate her. You do maybe but you are not "the people"

Your 25 to 30 percent are some of the people and even in that group most people don't hate her.

After Hillary wins the nomination her haters won't be heard from again.

[jeff47]

47. Look at the polls. Her GE favorability is underwater in all of them. (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Would you tell your interlocutor Gray Davis was re-elected governor with a 35% approval rating.

Folks liked Bill Simon even less...

Elections aren't conducted in a vacuum. You aren't running against yourself.

[jeff47]

52. Yeah...let's hold up the guy who lost a recall election as a model to follow. (nt)

[Uncle Joe]

45. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Scuba.

[WillyT]

53. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[misterhighwasted]

58. Bernie won't make it that far. He'll be out by Iowa. And SCarolina will render bernie,

Invisible.

[rhett o rick]

71. That's what the corptocracy and I guess you hope for. But you may be surprised at the

power of the People. We will kick the corrupt politicians out of Washington the DC.

There are two sides to this class war and I choose the side of Sen Sanders and the 99%. Others choose to side with HRC and the billionaires that have brought us 50,000,000 Americans living in poverty. How can you side with them?

[haikugal]

76. Count me in!! That's the spirit!! nt

[tularetom]

78. 95% of respondents have an opinion about Clinton, far more than any other candidate

There is very little upside potential for her favorability ratings. Everybody knows her and over half of them don't like her.

Next to Trump, she is easily the most polarizing figure in politics today.